GDP vs. Real GDP vs. Nominal GDP
For macroeconomic purposes, R-GDP is generally preferred over the nominal one because it factors out inflation. As it does so, R-GDP thus provides the reader with a real sense of output without the distortions caused by price fluctuations.
When we transport all this info onto the Business Cycle graph, it follows that the “end of fall” in GDP yearly rates in 2017 coupled with a current scenario where effective GDP is below potential GDP (Effect.-GDP < Pot.-GDP), plus 2019’s growth forecast of a mere 0.95%, the country’s current macroeconomic stage is clearly placed at the very beginning of an uphill ascending path (see picture above).
To put it all in a nutshell: considering how sensitive the external scenario presents itself and how much Brazil’s reform agenda lingers on the fate of its volatile and corruption-ridden political caste, a 2.20% GDP growth forecast for 2020 is all, but sound. As an aspiring economist with yet tonnes to learn, I would bet that, all things considered, Brazil’s GDP growth rate would possibly fall within a 1 and 1.5% range. Definitively not above past the 2% range.