1376) Obama protecionista: nenhuma novidade nisso

Bem, o Wall Street Journal já desconfiava disso, agora tem certeza...

A Protectionist President
Editorial The Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2009

Like Hoover, Obama is abdicating U.S. trade leadership.

President Obama traveled to yesterday to press his case for more financial regulation, but the bigger economic issue of the day concerned other White House policies. To wit, what does it mean for the world economy if America now has its first protectionist President since Herbert Hoover?

The smell of trade war is suddenly in the air. Mr. Obama slapped a 35% tariff on Chinese tires Friday night, and China responded on the weekend by threatening to retaliate against U.S. chickens and auto parts. That followed French President Nicolas Sarkozy's demand on Thursday that Europe impose a carbon tariff on imports from countries that don't follow its cap-and-trade diktats. "We need to impose a carbon tax at [Europe's] border. I will lead that battle," he said.

Mr. Sarkozy was following U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, who has endorsed a carbon tax on imports, and the U.S. House of Representatives, which passed a carbon tariff as part of its cap-and-tax bill. This in turn followed the "Buy American" provisions of the stimulus, which has incensed much of Canada; Congress's bill to ban Mexican trucks from U.S. roads in direct violation of Nafta, prompting Mexico to retaliate against U.S. farm and kitchen goods; and the must-make-cars-in-America provisions of the auto bailouts. Meanwhile, U.S. trade pacts with Colombia, Panama and South Korea languish in Congress.

Through all of this Mr. Obama has either said nothing or objected so feebly that Congress has assumed he doesn't mean it. Despite his pro-forma demurrals, Mr. Obama's actions and nonactions are telling the world that the U.S. is abandoning the global leadership on trade that Presidents of both parties have worked to maintain since the 1930s. His advisers whisper that their man is merely playing a little tactical domestic politics, but he is playing with fire, as the last 80 years of trade history should tell him.

The modern free-trade era began during the Great Depression, after the catastrophe of the Smoot-Hawley tariff of June 1930. Hoover also thought he was shrewdly playing tactical politics by adopting a tariff that the economist Joseph Schumpeter said was the "household remedy" of the Republican Party at the time. But the tariff ignited a beggar-thy-neighbor reaction around the world, and the flow of global goods and services collapsed.

FDR's Secretary of State Cordell Hull recognized the damage, and he began rebuilding a pro-trade consensus with a series of bilateral accords in the 1930s. In the aftermath of World War II, John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White and others on both sides of the Atlantic continued this progress by negotiating the Bretton Woods currency accords and creating the Global Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

Like Britain in the 19th century, the U.S. has been the linchpin of this liberal trading order that despite occasional setbacks has moved in the direction of lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers. As the world's largest economy, the U.S. has largely kept its market open, using access to U.S. consumers as a lever to open other countries to foreign goods and services. Even as Big Labor broke with this consensus, Bill Clinton continued this bipartisan tradition by supporting Nafta, and prodding Congress to ratify the World Trade Organization and most-favored nation trading status for China.

Following America's lead, countries that were once largely closed economically—especially China and India—have in turn opened up to foreign goods and services. The result has been an explosion in world trade, especially since the 1980s, as the nearby chart makes clear. This boom has coincided with rising incomes in countries connected by trade and the free flow of capital, especially in the developing world but also in America. While some U.S. jobs have vanished, new industries have emerged, and the U.S. has maintained its lead in manufacturing productivity.
***

This 80-year history of free-trade progress is now under threat from the global recession and Mr. Obama's abdication of U.S. leadership. Labor's antitrade views now dominate in the Democratic Congress and liberal think tanks. As ominous, protectionism is increasingly justified by Democratic economists on political grounds.

Paul Krugman, the chief economist for House Democrats, has endorsed a carbon tariff. And Clyde Prestowitz, who insisted in the 1980s that Japanese mercantilism would rule the world, went so far as to argue in the Financial Times last week that imposing tariffs on China would strike a blow for free trade. As economic logic, this compares to the argument that the way to reduce government health-care spending is to pass a new trillion-dollar entitlement.

President Bush and his trade negotiator Robert Zoellick also claimed that the protectionism of their 2001 steel tariffs would lead to more free-trade support, but the move merely exposed U.S. hypocrisy and undermined global trade talks. The reality is that without the U.S. leading by example, the world trading order is likely to deteriorate into every country for itself. This is especially dangerous amid a global recession in which world merchandise trade volume fell by roughly 33% from the second quarter of 2008 to June 2009. Reviving trade flows is crucial to restoring global growth.

Mr. Obama may not intend to start a trade war, but then Hoover didn't set out to pick one either. His political abdication is what made it possible, however, and trade passions once unleashed can be impossible to control. On his present course, President Obama is giving the world every reason to conclude he is a protectionist.

1375) Sindicalismo diplomatico: aderindo ao corporatismo brasileiro...

Os diplomatas já tinham constituído, 15 anos atrás, sua associação de classe, ou de casta, reservada apenas e exclusivamente aos diplomatas. Agora, todas as categorias de servidores do Estado no Serviço Exterior brasileiro se dotam de seu sindicato.
Vamos acompanhar o processo.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

SindItamaraty - Sindicato do Serviço Exterior Brasileiro
Nesta segunda-feira, dia 14 de setembro, foi oficializada a criação do SindItamaraty para representar os interesses dos servidores que compõem o Quadro Permanente do Ministério das Relações Exteriores.

Além de cerca de 150 servidores, o evento, que teve uma duração de 2h, também contou com a presença do Senador Cristovam Buarque (PDT-DF) e de outras autoridades. A mesa foi composta por representantes de todas as carreiras do MRE e contou com a importante participação do Embaixador Denis de Sousa Pinto, Diretor do Departamento do Serviço Exterior.

Após os discursos, os advogados do GT SINDITAMARATY, Drs. Normando Cavalcanti e Juliano Costa Couto, apresentaram os itens de pauta para deliberação dos presentes: criação do SindItamaraty, aprovação do Estatuto Social e eleição de Diretoria Provisória. Todos eles foram aprovados por unanimidade, o que os legitima para o registro da entidade junto ao Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego – MTE.

A ideia da criação do sindicato foi muito bem recebida pelos presentes e logo no primeiro dia a entidade já conta com 54 adesões.

Visando a troca de informação com os servidores lotados no exterior e com aqueles que não puderam comparecer à cerimônia, em breve, estará disponível um vídeo com os melhores momentos do evento.

Confira abaixo a composição da Diretoria Executiva do sindicato, eleita para um mandato provisório de 1 (um) ano:
AC Alexey van der Broocke – Presidente
PGPE Elizabeth Mattos – Vice-Presidente
Emb. Luiz Brun – Secretário-Geral
OC Betsáida Capilé Tunes – Diretora Financeira

-------

Oficializada a criação do SindItamaraty

Nesta segunda-feira, dia 14 de setembro, foi oficializada a criação do SindItamaraty para representar os interesses dos servidores que compõem o Quadro Permanente do Ministério das Relações Exteriores.

Além de cerca de 150 servidores, o evento, que teve uma duração de 2h, também contou com a presença do Senador Cristovam Buarque (PDT-DF) e de outras autoridades.

Acompanhe a matéria na íntegra no blog do SINDITAMARATY.
http://blogsinditamaraty.wordpress.com/

1374) MST: movimento da subtracao total...

O Brasil nao tem governo, e este, se existir, é o principal infrator das leis. Impossível ficar impassível ante tanta passividade, com desculpas por tantas redundâncias retóricas...
-------------
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Sem-terra teriam levado notebooks e filmadoras do prédio do Incra
Zero Hora, 15/09/2009 | 19h52min
Manifestantes teriam arrombado portas e revirado salas do prédio do Incra

Logo após a saída pacífica do contingente dos 450 sem-terra do prédio Incra no início da tarde desta terça-feira, na Capital, peritos da Polícia Federal deram início a uma vistoria de três horas no prédio de oito andares, onde também funcionam outros órgãos do governo federal, como a superintendência regional do Ministério da Agricultura.

Em todos os andares, há portas arrombadas e salas reviradas. Em alguns setores, móveis foram empilhados para abrir espaço para colchões e estoques de mantimentos. Carimbos usados para autenticar documentos foram aplicados sobre mesas dezenas de vezes, manchando os móveis. Nas paredes, a sigla do MST foi escrita diversas vezes.

— Está tudo arrombado, depredado. Sumiram notebooks, filmadoras e aparelhos de GPS, equipamentos de última geração. A sensação é a mesma de chegar em casa depois que ladrões passaram e vasculharam tudo. Vasculharam gavetas e armários e levaram o que tinha de maior valor e menor peso — resumiu Francisco Signor, superintendente federal do Ministério da Agricultura no Estado.

Devido à situação do prédio, o expediente das repartições será interno até sexta-feira, com previsão de retorno do atendimento ao público na segunda-feira.

Contraponto

O que diz o MST:
Procurados por Zero Hora no fim da tarde desta terça-feira, Sílvio dos Santos e Cedenir de Oliveira, da coordenação estadual do MST, estavam com os celulares desligados. Eles não retornaram os recados deixados na caixa postal. A assessoria de imprensa do movimento disse que os dois eram os únicos aptos a falar sobre o assunto.

=====

Addendum PRA: Contraponto é a mãe. Isso não é contraponto. Jornalismo politicamente correto é absolutamente ridículo neste caso.
O jornal deveria simplesmente declarar: "trata-se de um caso de banditismo explícito!"

1373) O Brasil e o G20 financeiro: artigo em Mundorama

O Brasil e o G20 financeiro: alguns elementos analíticos
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Mundorama, 14 de Setembro de 2009

Este breve ensaio efetua uma análise de conjuntura da economia brasileira, mais pelo lado das políticas econômicas do que propriamente pelos principais indicadores setoriais. Foram focalizadas a situação econômica previamente e no decorrer da crise, as principais respostas das autoridades econômicas e as perspectivas que se oferecem ao Brasil no pós-crise, relativamente favoráveis no conjunto do G20. São também tecidas considerações sobre as principais propostas brasileiras para uma nova arquitetura financeira internacional, em torno de posições que o país partilha com os demais Brics, cujo teor essencial é o aumento da participação dos emergentes nos processos decisórios mundiais.

O Brasil no G20: ativos políticos e limitações econômicas
Embora não imune a seus efeitos mais graves, no seu pico recessivo – entre o terceiro trimestre de 2008 e o primeiro semestre de 2009 – o Brasil parece ter resistido bem à crise financeira internacional iniciada no setor imobiliário americano e que logo se propagou para todo o sistema bancário e, daí, para uma crise econômica internacional. Ele foi um dos primeiros países a demandar reuniões internacionais de coordenação, tanto para conter os efeitos mais devastadores da crise, como para impulsionar o que considera ser uma agenda inconclusa das relações econômicas internacionais: a rodada Doha de negociações comerciais multilaterais da OMC. Suas demandas favoráveis à maior regulação do setor financeiro.

Em virtude de sua diplomacia hiperativa – em grande medida derivada da exposição internacional de seu presidente – o Brasil possui, prima facie, ativos políticos para sugerir questões para a formulação da agenda financeira internacional, muito embora, no plano estritamente econômico, seus ativos sejam bem mais limitados, em função da baixa intensidade de seu comércio internacional, sua situação de importador liquido de capitais e o caráter não conversível de sua moeda.

A situação macroeconômica pré-crise e as respostas à crise
O Brasil vinha numa trajetória relativamente satisfatória de crescimento e estabilidade no período anterior à crise, graças à demanda internacional por seus produtos primários de exportação, os altos preços alcançados por estes, a descoberta de gigantescas jazidas off shore de petróleo e a vasta atração de investimentos estrangeiros. Os canais de propagação da crise internacional no Brasil foram, principalmente: a exaustão dos créditos para o comércio exterior; a retração dos mercados externos e dos investimentos estrangeiros; a queda brusca nos preços dos principais produtos de exportação, o que gerou desemprego setorial no Brasil e revisão completa dos planos de investimentos na base produtiva nacional. O momento mais dramático foi a queda brutal da produção industrial no último trimestre de 2008, com o aumento concomitante do desemprego no setor, fazendo com que as estimativas dos analistas quanto aos indicadores de crescimento passassem do pessimismo ao catastrófico.

As respostas do governo, mais especificamente do Banco Central, foram adequadas ao momento, embora o lado monetário e financeiro tenha sido bem mais coerente do que o lado fiscal. No plano das autoridades monetárias, o que se fez foi classicamente keynesiano: injeção de liquidez na veia do sistema, com redução dos depósitos compulsórios; extensão dos créditos ao setor bancário; atuação na frente cambial e de comércio exterior, com a redução concomitante dos juros de referência. No que se refere às autoridades fiscais, as medidas não tiveram quase nada de verdadeiramente anticíclicas: a despeito da redução de impostos indiretos em alguns setores – mas atingindo apenas aqueles que teriam de ser transferidos aos estados e municípios, e não as contribuições devidas unicamente ao poder central – houve uma elevação generalizada de gastos em rubricas que são permanentes – como aumentos nos salários do funcionalismo e promessas renovadas no que se refere ao salário mínimo e Bolsa-Família – com muito pouco acréscimo nos investimentos em infra-estrutura e quase nenhum alívio na carga fiscal da massa dos contribuintes-consumidores. Por outro lado, o aumento exagerado do crédito através dos bancos públicos – que já concentram uma grande proporção dos empréstimos no Brasil – pode vir a provocar insuficiência de oferta produtiva e pressões inflacionárias, o que poderá obrigar o Copom a elevar novamente os juros, quebrando o ciclo de baixa iniciado em janeiro de 2009 (até um patamar inédito na história do Brasil: 8,75%).

As respostas dos membros do G20 e a posição do Brasil
Os membros do G20 também atuaram segundo as linhas clássicas do keynesianismo aplicado. No caso do Brasil, os fundamentos macroeconômicos são bem mais sólidos do que por ocasião de crises passadas, o que justifica a manutenção, pelas principais agências de avaliação de risco, do investment grade atribuído anteriormente ao Brasil, e o fluxo ascendente de capitais externos, tanto de investimento direto como de cunho puramente financeiro. Por outro lado, a demanda da China – convertida em principal parceiro comercial no começo de 2009 – por produtos primários de exportação brasileira atuou no sentido da revalorização dos seus preços, o que pode minimizar o impacto negativo da crise internacional sobre nossa balança de transações correntes. O setor financeiro, por sua vez, não foi sequer arranhado, a despeito do retraimento de fontes externas de financiamento, graças à aplicação judiciosa por parte do Banco Central das regras prudenciais de Basiléia e à herança do Proer, que eliminou completamente o perigo de bancos privados e públicos administrados de maneira irresponsável na primeira metade da década passada. O grande mérito do governo atual no plano econômico foi, justamente, o de ter preservado o núcleo essencial das políticas adotadas antes do seu início, quais sejam: flutuação cambial, metas de inflação e responsabilidade fiscal, tanto pelo lado da preservação do superávit primário como da vigência da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, que o partido atualmente no poder pretendia desmantelar quando era oposição.

Na frente cambial, após uma paradoxal valorização do dólar (em meio à crise de confiança na economia americana) e uma desvalorização sensível da moeda brasileira entre setembro de 2008 e fevereiro de 2009 (que atingiu quase 50% entre seu pico de valorização, em julho de 2008, e o fundo do poço, em dezembro), o real voltou a conhecer o mesmo fenômeno da valorização gradual, que tanto preocupa os exportadores e os industriais de modo geral. O Banco Central tem respondido com novas compras de divisas, tendo as reservas ultrapassado o pico de 209 bilhões de dólares do período anterior à crise. Mas as autoridades financeiras têm resistido sensatamente às demandas de setores dirigistas por ativismo cambial e controles dos fluxos de capitais. Pouco se fala, porém, do enorme custo fiscal do carregamento dessas reservas – quase 20 bilhões de dólares por ano – ademais da enorme concentração das divisas em títulos do Tesouro americano, com juros negativos e perspectivas de desvalorização ulterior do dólar americano.

Perspectivas brasileiras para Pittsburgh: a ação através dos Brics
Desde a primeira reunião de cúpula do G20 em Washington (em novembro de 2008), passando pela reunião de Londres (de abril de 2009) e, provavelmente também nesta próxima reunião de Pittsburgh (setembro de 2009), o Brasil vem mantendo posições relativamente próximas do grupo de “regulacionistas keynesianos”, como poderiam ser assim designados aqueles que pretendem introduzir medidas mais rígidas de controle dos fluxos de capital, que pretendem criar mecanismos que possam “coibir” a “especulação financeira”, inclusive no sentido de reforçar e ampliar os instrumentos prudenciais e regulatórios sobre as atividades das instituições financeiras – concebidas num sentido amplo. No plano da conjuntura econômica e da luta pela recuperação da economia mundial pós-crise, o Brasil advoga a manutenção das medidas fiscais de estímulo à economia pelo tempo que for necessário para a retomada plena do ritmo de atividade. Ele também acha que os países precisam introduzir sanções contra os paraísos fiscais, considerados um dos condutos da especulação. No plano das relações econômicas internacionais, o Brasil prega a retomada e a conclusão da Rodada Doha de negociações comerciais multilaterais como um dos componentes da retomada ordenada da atividade econômica.

Finalmente, no que tange a nova “arquitetura” do sistema financeiro internacional, o Brasil propõe uma redistribuição e ampliação do sistema de cotas das duas instituições de Bretton Woods, no sentido de fazer a participação dos países em desenvolvimento (ou, na nova linguagem, os emergentes) elevar-se à proporção de 47% sobre o capital total, reduzindo-se de maneira concomitante a participação dos países avançados (atualmente de 60% sobre o total). A sugestão é que o processo se dê em detrimento dos pequenos países europeus, como aliás já sugerido pelos próprios Estados Unidos. Todo o ativismo reformista brasileiro se dá, atualmente, em conjunção com os Brics, muito embora a China – a despeito de ter lançado inicialmente a idéia – não tenha aderido, no encontro de Londres, à sugestão de que os países do G20 e as instituições financeiras multilaterais concebem um novo instrumento de reserva internacional (e possivelmente de troca também), baseado numa cesta de moedas dos países mais relevantes. Contraditoriamente, porem, os quatro Brics possuem imensas reservas em dólar e não teriam, assim, interesse, numa rápida desvalorização da moeda americana. As reservas brasileiras em divisas ascendem atualmente a mais de 215 bilhões de dólares, das quais aproximadamente três quartos estão aplicadas em T-bonds.

Conclusões: visões contraditórias sobre a crise e a gestão econômica
O Brasil se encontra relativamente preparado para uma nova fase de crescimento, à condição que o mau comportamento fiscal do governo, exibido atualmente, não seja exacerbado e que sua voracidade tributária seja contida em limites razoáveis, para permitir que o setor privado possa investir e criar riquezas, emprego e renda, atividades que apenas ele pode fazer. Dada a propensão governamental ao gasto excessivo, muitos temem a formação de uma bomba-relógio fiscal, a explodir em algum momento da próxima década, a despeito de um contexto de provável retomada do crescimento mundial. O Brasil, em todo caso, é o país de menor crescimento entre os emergentes, uma característica que ele deveria tentar superar. O setor privado já fez a sua parte, no sentido de se ajustar às novas condições dos mercados internacionais; cabe ao governo, agora, tentar fazer a sua, sobretudo atuando de modo responsável no plano fiscal.

No plano internacional, finalmente, o Brasil deve continuar a se articular com os três outros membros do Bric, bem como com outros países relevantes dentre os emergentes – como a África do Sul, país com o qual o Brasil constitui um outro grupo, junto com a Índia (o IBSA) – no sentido de oferecer propostas reformistas das instituições financeiras que contemplem o aumento do poder decisório desses países nessas instituições.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida é Doutor em ciências sociais pela Universidade de Bruxelas (1984); diplomata de carreira do serviço exterior brasileiro desde 1977; professor de Economia Política Internacional no Mestrado em Direito do Centro Universitário de Brasilia (Uniceub); autor de diversos livros de história diplomática e de relações internacionais (pralmeida@mac.com).

from → 1. Boletim Mundorama, Brasil, Economia Internacional, Instituições Internacionais, Política Externa

1372) A volta ao mundo em 29 dias...

Sim, é possível, como prova este casal de americanos, segundo matéria abaixo.
Eu faria em dois meses de férias, para ficar menos cansativo e mais instrutivo, mas nada impede de tentar.
Em todo caso, sempre se pode aprender com as lições dos outros.
Vejamos...

Around the World in Four Easy Lessons
By Maryann Haggerty
Special to The Washington Post
Sunday, September 13, 2009

We did laundry in Honolulu, Hong Kong and Madrid.
Oh, and in a bathtub in Bali.

This summer, my husband and I, both well past backpacker age, traveled around the world in 29 days. That's an average of less than four days in each of the eight countries we visited. It was exhilarating, exhausting and, of course, the trip of a lifetime.

I could drone on about the splendor of the Taj Mahal at dawn, the sensory assault of Tokyo's Shinjuku district at night and the welcoming off-hours ambiance of that dim little heavy-metal bar in Barcelona. But don't worry. I know what you really want to know: How did we plan this? And what did we pack?

We learned a notebook's worth of lessons: Fly east to west, don't take a trip like this unless your marriage is strong and, perhaps most important, yes, it's possible to travel around the world even when, like most Americans', your vacation time is scarce.

Lesson No. 1: When planning, remember: It's your trip.
Not surprisingly, we cooked up the idea of traveling around the world over a pitcher of beer.

Late last year, we were trying to agree on a really spectacular vacation to commemorate, among other things, a milestone birthday. Southeast Asia? The European Grand Tour? As we sat in our corner bar, we kept adding possibilities, making things more and more complicated, until my husband brought up the big one: Why not around the world?

Yeah, sure. Who has the time for that? Or the money?

Nonetheless, I began reading books and trawling Web sites. There is an accepted template for what's called RTW travel. You must do it slowly -- say, at least six months or a year. You must get off the beaten path, disdaining all those things that regular tourists are there to see, such as renowned museums or the Great Pyramids. You should probably carry a backpack, stay in the cheapest place in town and wash your clothes in the sink.

And you absolutely, positively must go to Thailand.

This didn't work for us. We had jobs we couldn't leave for long. And we didn't see the appeal in sharing cold-water showers in a $10-a-night hostel.

But . . . we could take four weeks. And we actually did have quite a bit of cash saved. If you traveled for a month instead of six months, the hotels could at least have private baths with hot showers. We mapped out dream routes and must-do's until we convinced ourselves that with some tight scheduling we could pull it off. There wouldn't be time to immerse ourselves in any culture for too long or to get too far off the beaten path.

But guess what? We're city people. We wanted to see the skyscrapers of Hong Kong and the masterpieces of the Prado. Call us shallow, but we wanted to see the Taj Mahal.

To buy an RTW ticket, you can work through consolidators, those travel agencies that buy the tiny newspaper ads with the teeny print. Some have established Web operations aimed at independent travelers. You can book prearranged group tours, and even spectacularly expensive RTW cruises.

The international airline alliances -- Oneworld, Star Alliance and SkyTeam -- also sell RTW tickets, each with its own complex rules. I talked with the consolidators, but I also fiddled, sometimes for hours, with the cool Web scheduling tools that Oneworld and Star Alliance provide.

And sometime in March, we had it pinned down: an 11-flight, culture-clash-filled itinerary, stopping only in places new to both of us. There were beaches in Hawaii and Bali, ancient wonders in Egypt and Jordan, city stays in Tokyo and Hong Kong. We jammed in the Taj Mahal and left almost a week for Spain. We actually stretched it a hair beyond four weeks -- that one extra day made the Delhi-to-Amman connection work, at least on paper. And somehow, we did it without a stay in Thailand.

Lesson No. 2: Packing is important, but don't worry -- they'll sell you stuff.
You can buy anything in Hong Kong. Good, because my husband was threatening to burn the denim skirt that I had worn every day for more than a week in Asia.

I liked the skirt. It had plenty of pockets for lugging cameras, maps and more on our long walks. And as temperatures day after day stayed closer to 100 degrees than 90, it was more comfortable than jeans.

With temperatures forecast to keep climbing as we visited India, Jordan and Egypt, jeans were a bad idea. But at least in the Muslim countries, my short skirt wasn't recommended.

What I needed were adventure pants, those super-lightweight synthetic-fabric cargo pants, wrinkle-proof, sun-proof, with pockets inside zippered pockets. Just like the ones that had served me so well on past bird-watching trips in Latin America. In fact, just like the ones in my closet at home.

When we planned this trip, we agreed to do it all with carry-on luggage. Aside from those pesky checked-baggage fees, we didn't want to mess with lost luggage on a schedule that could have us leaving a country before our bags arrived. That meant we each carried a 22-inch wheeled bag, plus a day-bag-size backpack. Some travel gurus sniff at wheeled bags. But our backs are no longer up to lugging duffel bags, and those wheels come in handy if you're spending more time in the corridors of international airports than you are running for a bus along an unpaved African road.

We each kept the weight of our combined bags somewhat under 30 pounds, and that passed muster on each of the five airlines we flew. That meant no dress shoes (wear the sneakers, pack the sandals), one light sweater, a rain jacket, summer-weight clothes and underwear for eight days. The gol' darned TSA bag -- three-ounce bottles of shampoo and all the other liquids in a one-quart zip-lock -- went in the day bag, along with other toiletries, cameras, electronics, airplane reading matter, valuable paperwork and one full change of those clean clothes, just in case.

Forget taking just two sets of clothes and washing one out in the sink each night. A T-shirt might dry overnight in the Jordanian desert, but even the flimsiest of undies is still going to be damp when it rains for days on end in Tokyo. So we hunted down wash-ops along the way. Swanky resorts hide their laundry facilities from the guests and charge outrageously for each piece. But the kind of moderately priced small hotels that cater to middle-class families have guest laundries or nearby laundromats that meet tourist needs. For instance, while the clothes tumbled in the coin-operated dryer in Madrid, we ducked out for tapas and a beer. By trip's end, we had presentable clothes for the final flight, but every other stitch was filthy, so we'd done something right.

No matter how carefully you pack, though, you're going to bring something extra -- perhaps one too many pairs of jeans -- and you're going to forget something -- perhaps a pair of adventure pants.

However, you can buy anything in Hong Kong. A store on Nathan Road had several racks of women's adventure pants, but one big catch: They were all sized for tiny Asian women. In the States, I'm a medium. Here, a medium was barely making it up over my knees.

But remember, you can buy anything in Hong Kong. The saleswoman disappeared into the storeroom a few times before she finally brought out the pants that I wore every day until we reached Europe -- the perfect color, the perfect pockets.

And the perfect size: an XXL.

Lesson No. 3: Technology is great, but you need paper.
At 3:30 a.m., the heavily armed guard at the New Delhi airport departures terminal was in no mood to learn about e-tickets.

I can't imagine that the idea was new to him, living as he does in a nation synonymous with high-tech. But he acted as though it was. The helpful hotel concierge who had accompanied us to the airport showed him our passports and explained over and over that we didn't have paper plane tickets, just electronic ones. That wasn't enough. The guard wanted a ticket.

It was time for the red folder.

Before we left the States, I printed out every hotel confirmation e-mail, every driver's phone number, every set of directions to shuttle buses and train stations. I scanned our passports, sent the images to Gmail and printed out extra copies. I printed at least a half-dozen copies of our airline itinerary as it appeared on the American Airlines Web site. And I put all those many sheets of paper, arranged in chronological order, in a red paper folder, the kind you buy a grade-school kid for 69 cents. It lived in the outside pocket of my little backpack.

With a flourish, I pulled out a copy of the itinerary, with our names, the date, everything. This document was no more official than any other printout in my folder, but the guard examined it closely and decided that we had a right to be where we were supposed to be.

We could not have planned this trip without the Internet. But technology isn't infallible, so you need backups. We approached that in a number of ways, some more successful than others.

For instance, books are heavy. To lighten our burden of thinly sliced trees, we loaded dozens of books, mostly freebie classics, onto a Kindle (for my husband) and an iPod Touch (for me). But you're not allowed to use either of these 21st-century marvels during takeoff and landing. They're not so hot poolside, either. So we agreed that we could each take one old-fashioned paperback that we would throw out when we finished. I think we each cheated and took two. But at least we got rid of some of the paper.

We had less luck with guidebooks. To cut that weight, we downloaded PDFs of relevant Lonely Planet chapters and stored them on the iPod. We packed just a few teeny-tiny paperback city guides, the kind that really do fit into a back pocket, and bought more along the way.

It turns out that reading long PDFs on an iPod screen is almost as difficult as deciphering detailed city maps on that same screen. And the Cairo guidebook we were able to find in Egypt wasn't much help with the Arabic signs in the subway system, and even less help when we got lost walking around the Zamalek neighborhood on a morning so hot and smoggy you couldn't see the banks of the Nile. At that point, I longed for a paper Lonely Planet.

Lesson No. 4: Even when things don't go according to plan, it can be cool.
Once we finally got past that guard at the airport in Delhi, I was ready to leave India. The Taj Mahal was breathtaking, but temperatures for two days had been flirting with an outrageously hot 45 degrees Celsius (I didn't want to do the math -- it comes to 113 degrees Fahrenheit) and Indian traffic had left my nerves raw. Also, it was not quite 4 a.m.

Unfortunately, the plane we were supposed to take to Jordan was canceled. I'll skip the dramatics and get to the point: This is why we bought travel insurance. It meant that we didn't have to pay for our extra day in Delhi. If the delay had run into another day, it would have covered that, too. After a nap back at our hotel, I hit the international phone lines to cancel what I had been assured was our charming little hotel in Amman -- the one recommended by a friend who used to live there. We arranged instead to have a driver pick us up at the Amman airport the next day and go directly to Petra, the ancient city of jaw-dropping red-rock ruins that was our main reason for the Jordan stop. I regret losing that day in Jordan, but at least we didn't lose any unbudgeted money.

Many long-term travelers keep their plans loose, in good part to keep costs down. They don't book rooms until they arrive at their destination; they haggle with drivers on the spot; they keep their flight plans as flexible as the airlines allow. When I have plenty of time, I'll do the same.

But four weeks was all we had, so we made all our reservations ahead, via the Internet, except for a few hotel nights in Bali and Barcelona. We studied up on airport-to-city public transit, or we arranged for drivers to meet our flights. I'm sure finding local rooms and local buses might have been cheaper, but it wasn't worth it to me.

To keep ourselves oriented, we filled our notebooks in advance with salient facts about each destination: language, time zones and more. My husband printed one little spreadsheet that was an anchor as we hopped among countries with vastly different customs (how much to tip?), currencies (About 100 to the dollar, like in Japan? Or about 10,000, like in Indonesia?) and latitudes (sunset was 7:56 p.m. in Cairo; the next night in Madrid, it was 9:46 p.m.)

And because of the travel insurance, the 24-hour flight delay wasn't a crisis. We spent the time in our air-conditioned hotel, eating Indian food, sitting by the pool, checking e-mail and decompressing, something that definitely hadn't been on the carefully arranged schedule for that day.

Maryann Haggerty is a former Washington Post writer and editor. Her blog from this trip is at http://tinyurl.com/rtw29. She will join the Travel Talk chat Monday at 2 p.m. on http://www.washingtonpost.com/liveonline.

1371) Doing Business in Brazil (rather: NOT doing business in such a country)

As condições imperantes no Brasil são, de fato, horríveis, e o ambiente de negócios não é propriamente um ambiente, apenas uma atmosfera mal cheirosa, com milhares de entraves burocraticos, corrupcao, carga tributária irracional e outros problemas.
Constatem vocês mesmos...

World Bank – Doing Business 2009

The World Bank’s annual evaluation of “Doing Business” conditions world wide (133 countries) rank Brazil with worse conditions (for doing business) in 2009.
In 2008, Brazil was near the “bottom” of this ranking (127th), but in 2009 was ranked 129th. “What was already really bad, got worse”, affirmed Prof. Carlos Arruda at the Dom Cabral Foundation, who coordinated this survey.
Only Bolivia and Venezuela were ranked worse than Brazil.
Although Brazil has “good” macro economic indicators, it had a very bad classification in other items like the level of the tax burden, waste of government funds, regulatory frameworks, quality of infrastructure, and education.

This report surveys the time it takes to open a new business in these nations – Hong Kong (6 days), China (37 days), Peru (41 days), Uruguay (65 days), Brazil (120 days), and Venezuela (141 days).
See Doing Business 2009

1370) Um novo codigo penal para punir terroristas

O pai do jornalista Daniel Pearl, correspondente do Wall Street Journal barbaramente trucidado por terroristas islâmicos no Paquistão, propõe um novo quadro jurídico para lidar com o fenômeno do terrorismo, não apenas o da Al Quaeda ou islâmico, mas qualquer terrorismo. Endosso plenamente suas recomendações, feitas ao seu governo, mas que devem ser consideradas como universais.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

We Need a New Legal Regime to Fight the War on Terror
An open letter to the attorney general.
By JUDEA PEARL
The Wall Street Journal, Opinion, September 12, 2009

As Americans commemorate the eighth anniversary of the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, many of us are conscious of another symbol of the war on terror: the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, whose fate is still uncertain. If the crumbling twin towers conjure memories of America's shock and pain, Guantanamo is a monument to our nation's reaction after 9/11—and the moral dilemmas we face in this difficult new era.

On Jan. 22, 2009, President Barack Obama set up three task forces to review and recommend strategies concerning various aspects of the Guantanamo detention facility. They met with families of terror victims in June and issued a preliminary report in July, which called for the use of both military and federal courts for the disposition of detainees held at Guantanamo.

I met with the members of the task forces, along with many families of terror victims. We focused primarily on the legal dilemmas facing the U.S. government as it seeks to balance the security needs of the American people with the rights of potentially dangerous detainees.

There was much bitterness expressed at that meeting. The words "it is all politics" were repeated again and again, as victims' families expressed their frustration at what they viewed as the government's indecision and lack of moral clarity. Family members spoke passionately about lost loved ones who had not been "given their human rights to argue for their innocence." The sadness and rage expressed in that room still ring in my ears today.

After that meeting, on June 21, 2009, I wrote a letter to the three task forces. I am now making an edited version of the letter public, with the hope that it gets the attention of Attorney General Eric Holder before he makes his final recommendations to President Obama.
***

My name is Judea Pearl. I am the father of Daniel Pearl, the Wall Street Journal South Asia bureau chief who was abducted and brutally murdered in Karachi, Pakistan, Jan. 31, 2002.

If there is one thing that could soothe the pain of those of us whose loved ones were murdered by terrorists, it is the knowledge that our losses were not in vain, but have been channeled towards eradicating the evil of terrorism from the face of the earth.

Let me be clear: We are less concerned about details—like where these men will serve their sentences—that seem to dominate the public debate. We care most about the message our government projects about its determination in this struggle.

The message from our government should reach the ears of several audiences: terrorists, their sympathizers, their potential recruits, the world at large, and, most importantly, the next generation of Americans.

First and foremost, it must proclaim unequivocally that America is still committed to the war on terror, and that this war includes not just active combatants or members of recognized terrorist organizations, but the ideology of terror itself. In other words, America should affirm its commitment to fight any ideology that licences the targeting of innocent civilians to transmit political messages.

In the same way that our medical research institutions have declared a war on cancer—not on one tumor or another—your message should make it clear that America is not merely at war with al Qaeda or individual perpetrators of the crimes. It is the ideology of terrorism in its various incarnations that is our most fierce enemy.

With this objective in mind, you should recommend that detainees suspected of terror be classified as a new legal category. Existing categories derived from criminal law and conventional warfare are not equipped to deal with the threat democracies now face.

America must muster the courage to define a new category and deal with it on its own terms. This is perhaps the most important recommendation that your task forces could make.

By crafting the Geneva Conventions at the end of World War II, the international community demonstrated the necessity of creating new legal frameworks to deal with new realities. That same need should now compel the international community to embrace a legal category to deal with the new phenomena of a war with no foreseen ending; an army with no honor and no respect for human life; an army with no uniform, no country and no government; and an army that does not reciprocate agreements.

I am constantly reminded of the case of piracy, which was a menace until the mid-19th century, when the international community got together and eradicated in just a few years. This was only possible because of a radical change in international law that proclaimed it a crime not against a particular state, but against all mankind. It is this kind of sweeping legal innovation that we and the entire civilized world hope to see you propose.

Whatever decisions you make regarding the physical and legal handling of the current detainees, it is imperative that going forward every potential terrorist would know that, if caught, he will not be entitled to privileges under existing legal categories but subject to a new set of restrictions.

In addition to placing detainees in this new category, you should also recommend that they are tried in closed sessions. Detainees should not be given a platform to broadcast messages to their comrades or recruits back home. There is nothing more enticing to a would-be terrorist than the prospect of becoming the center of world attention, able to broadcast his alleged grievances to every living room on this planet.

Our son was murdered—and his beheading videotaped—to satisfy this craving for publicity. Your recommendations must make it clear to every would-be terrorist that, if captured, he will go down the path of total oblivion to the extent allowed by law.

The question of freedom of speech might enter into this issue, especially if media gag orders are considered. Here I am reminded of child pornography, which is not protected by the First Amendment, not for the purpose of limiting consumption, but for the purpose of curbing production. We live in a world where a sizable segment of the population is aroused by cruelty. To prevent this cruelty from spreading, we must impose blackouts on much of what these detainees may wish to boast about in their testimonies.

We who are living the war on terror every minute of our lives wish you success in your difficult, yet historic task. The future of civilized society may depend on your decisions.

Mr. Pearl, a professor of computer science at UCLA, is president of the Daniel Pearl Foundation, founded in memory of his son to promote cross-cultural understanding.