terça-feira, 21 de maio de 2019

Politica externa brasileira: passado, presente e futuro - Paulo Roberto de Almeida (Curitiba, 29 e 30/05)

EVENTO DE EXTENSÃO
POLÍTICA EXTERNA BRASILEIRA :
PASSADO, PRESENTE E FUTURO 

Tenho a satisfação de convidá-lo (a) para os Eventos de Extensão intitulados “POLÍTICA EXTERNA BRASILEIRA  - passado, presente e futuro”, promovido pela Faculdade de Ciências Jurídicas da Universidade Tuiuti do Paraná (UTP) e pela Faculdade de Educação Superior do Paraná (FESP), com o apoio do  Centro Heleno Fragoso  pelos Direitos Humanos (CHF)  e  da  Associação de Juristas  pela Integração da América Latina (AJIAL), que será levado a efeito nas datas de 29 e 30 de maio vindouro.

A atividade extensionista terá como destaque a conferência do Prof. Dr. Paulo Roberto de Almeida, embaixador de carreira do MRE, doutor em Ciências Sociais (Université Libre de Bruxelles - 1984), professor de Economia Política no Programa de Pós-graduação do Centro Universitário de Brasília (UNICEUB) e escritor consagrado. 
Os eventos acontecerão em Curitiba

a) no Auditório da FESP (Rua Dr. Faivre, 141), na data de 29 de maio de 2019, das 19h00 às 20h30; e, 
b) no Auditório do Curso de Direito da UTP (Rua José Nicco, 179), no dia 30 de maio de 2019, das 09h30 às 11h10

A iniciativa conta com a coordenação-geral do Prof. Wagner Rocha D'Angelis. Serão fornecidos certificados.
Na ocasião, o embaixador Paulo Roberto de Almeida estará lançando seu mais recente livro “Contra a Corrente – ensaios contrarianistas sobre as relações internacionais do Brasil” (Editora Appris). 

Para maiores informações e também inscrições, favor acessar o link:
Agradeço antecipadamente a presença de Vossa Senhoria e/ou colaboração na divulgação deste significativo Evento.

Atenciosamente,  
Wagner Rocha D'Angelis

A politica externa dos EUA: discurso do Secretario de Estado Mike Pompeo

Intro by Walter Russell Mead no Wall Street Journal

What ‘America First’ Means to Pompeo

The U.S. faces a series of intractable crises and standoffs around the world. Trade talks with China have reached an impasse; North Korea has returned to threats and missile launches; the chaos on America’s southern border shows no sign of abating; relations with Germany reached new lows after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo canceled a meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel so he could visit Iraq; Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro continues to defy U.S. pressure to stand down; and an apparent act of sabotage against ships in the Persian Gulf Monday ratcheted tensions another notch higher in the Middle East.
Against this background, Secretary Pompeo delivered his most comprehensive attempt yet to expound the core themes informing the Trump administration’s foreign policy. His speech—delivered Saturday to the Claremont Institute in Southern California—deserves careful study. Whether or not President Trump’s foreign policy is successful, the ideas laid out by Mr. Pompeo are likely to shape the Republican Party’s approach to statecraft for years to come.

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https://www.state.gov/remarks-at-the-claremont-institute-40th-anniversary-gala-a-foreign-policy-from-the-founding/

Remarks at the Claremont Institute 40th Anniversary Gala: “A Foreign Policy From the Founding”

SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you. Thank you all. People talk about my job being nerve-wracking. There is nothing as nerve-wracking as that much applause before you speak. (Laughter.) And you should know – Ryan, thank you for the kind introduction too – I was on this trip when I heard about this little dustup about the advertisement for this dinner, and it said they wouldn’t let him post because of the offensive material. I’m like, is that me? (Laughter.) But I also know a point – with no advertisement and this crowd, you’d have needed a much bigger room.
So it is wonderful. It is great to be out with a group of people who care about America so deeply. Thank you for having me. (Applause.) I want to thank the Claremont Institute as well. As you said, I just got back on a trip where I had gone to Finland to talk about America’s interests in the Arctic. I made a little detour to Iraq – (laughter) – and then back to London. Makes Southern California weather feel pretty good. (Laughter.)
First of all, I was – you talked about this is home. I grew up at basically Harbor and McFadden. My father still lives in that house. I was there today. (Applause.) Yeah, it was really something. He’s lived in that house since 1961, and today they had the whole little street blocked off with California Highway Patrol and the security team, and the neighbors were all coming out like, “I know that kid.” (Laughter.)
The Bible describes John the Baptist as “the voice of one crying in the wilderness.” And I sometimes think about the Claremont Institute that way.
I call Kansas home. It’s where I spent the bulk of my adult life outside of the military. But I had spent my childhood here, of course, when Ronald Reagan was the governor. And I have to tell you, California has changed a little bit since I left. (Laughter.) I’m going to have to come back and help you all get it right. (Cheers and applause.)
It’s so important that you all know, all the people who make Claremont tick, Ryan and the team and all of those who contribute, your work goes way past California. And as Ryan said, there’s been a lot written in the Claremont Review of Books that clarify the aims and undertakings of what we’re trying to do in this administration, and the hundreds of fellows that you’ve educated over the years who are defending the first principles on the front lines. In fact, Ryan mentioned I have a senior advisor, Mary Kissel, and a speechwriter, who is sitting over here to my left. The two of them wrote this tonight, so if you don’t like it, it is on you. (Laughter.)
It also looks like my Leo Strauss quote, Leos Strauss quote, so you’re the only ones that might laugh at that joke, so thank you. (Laughter.)
Look, all kidding aside, your work to preserve the ideals of the American Founding is absolutely what America needs. There is literally, as I travel the world, there is nothing more distinctive about the United States than our politics, and wonderfully so. We are the truly greatest experiment in human freedom that the world has ever seen, and I, as America’s senior diplomat, benefit from that every day. (Applause.)
I want to do a little bit of the history, because the foreign policy of the early republic reflected the attitude of a free nation which has thrown off an imperial power, which, frankly, I just left. (Laughter.) And look, I think there’s three words that characterize that. They would be realism, restraint, and respect, and I’ll talk about each of them just for a moment.
First, realism. The Founders were keen students of human nature and history. They saw that conflict is the normative experience for nations. Hamilton put this Federalist 34. He said, “To judge from the history of mankind, we shall be compelled to conclude that the fiery and destructive passions of war reign in the human breast with much more powerful sway than the mild and [beneficial] sentiments of peace.”
I’ll simplify: The Founders knew peace wasn’t the norm. And in response to this reality, the Founders knew the first duty of the federal government was to provide for the safety of its citizens. Madison said, “[Security] is an avowed and essential object of the American Union.” You all know that.
How about restraint? The Founders sought to protect our interests but avoid adventurism. The Barbary War, fought so soon after independence, was an effort of last resort to protect our vital commercial interests. The Monroe Doctrine – relevant even today – was a message of deterrence, not a license to grab land. “Peace and friendship,” said Jefferson, “with all mankind is our wisest policy, and I wish we may be permitted to pursue it. But the temper and folly of our enemies may not leave this in our choice.”
And finally, respect. The Founders had recently cast off the tyranny of an empire. They were not eager to subjugate others. In 1821, John Quincy Adams wrote that America “goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.” But indeed, quite the opposite: “She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all.” And as the first nation of its kind, the world would see America as a model for self-government and liberty. And a special bond would link America to any nation that loved those things.
Let’s contrast the Founders’ ideas to the foreign policy of the late 20th and early 21st century. American leaders had drifted from realism. At the dawn of the post-Cold war era, hopes were high that enfolding the likes of China and Russia into a so-called rules-based international order would hasten their domestic evolution towards democracy. We hoped this order – comprised of institutions and agreed upon by codes of conduct – would temper their actions towards neighbors and to our country.
But we can see now 30 years on, after the end of the Cold War, that the Putin regime slays dissidents in cold blood and invades its neighbors; that the Chinese Communist Party has detained more than one million Chinese Muslims in labor camps, and it uses coercion and corruption as its primary tools of statecraft. And as I’ll talk about here in just a little bit, both countries have foreign policies intent on eroding American power. We can’t blame our leaders for their optimism, but we can blame them for having misjudged those regimes.
America too had become unrestrained, untethered from common sense. The institutions, the institutions we built to defend the free world against the Soviet menace, had drifted from their original mission set. Indeed, some of them had become directly antagonistic to our interests, while we kept silent. We bought into trade agreements that helped hollow out our own middle class. We sacrificed American competitiveness for accolades from the UN and climate activists. And we engaged in conflicts without a clear sense of mission. No more. (Applause.)
And to round out this trio, we had lost sight of respect – not for other nations, but for our own people and for our ideals. We cozied up to Cuba. We struck a terrible agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran that put the regime’s campaigns of terrorism and proxy wars on steroids. And many of our leaders were more eager to delight the Davos crowd than champion the principles that have made us the greatest nation that civilization has ever known. (Applause.)
By the way, the Claremont Institute sadly knows, I could also name a certain tech company that we spoke about earlier that’s forgotten our first principles too. (Applause.)
I am very confident. I am very confident that the Founders would have been perplexed by those moves. We had too much confidence in the international system and not enough confidence in our own nation. And we had too little courage to confront regimes squarely opposed to our interests and to our values. (Applause.)
But I bring you good news. One man said, “Enough.” And in 2016, you all sent him to the White House. (Cheers and applause.) President Trump’s prescription for foreign policy was very simple, right? “America First.” Now, that’s been mocked a bit. The media has spun this phrase as a dog-whistle for racists and xenophobes. But I’ve spent a fair amount of time with President Trump, in fact, virtually every single day these past two years. (Laughter.) Yeah, sometimes so good, sometimes more challenging for all of us, yes. (Laughter.)
But here’s what this really means. It means that like millions and millions of Americans, President Trump loves this country and wants to see it do well in the world – not at the expense of others, but to the benefit of our people, and by extension, the nations that share our values and our strategic goals. It’s really that simple. If there is a natural law of foreign policy, this is it.
And while he wishes every country enjoyed the freedoms we enjoy here, he has no aspiration to use force to spread the American model. You can see it in the administration’s record of its using force. I can prove it to you.
And so – and so importantly − he believes America is exceptional – a place and history apart from normal human experience, the ones that our Founders spoke about. President Trump believes it is right – indeed more than right – for America to unashamedly advance policy that serves our interests and reflects American ideals. (Applause.)
Certainly, our course of action in this administration reflects a gut-level – a gut-level – for love of country. But taking the pursuit of America’s interests up a notch is not just honorable; it’s urgent in this new era of great power competition. (Applause.)
On China, the President has taken action to stop China from stealing our stuff. No longer will American companies be forced to hand over their technological crown jewels as the price of doing business in China. (Applause.) When a deal doesn’t work for the United States, no deal shall be done. (Applause.)
We have bolstered our military presence in the South China Sea, and we’ve put nations on notice around the world that the sale of key infrastructure and technology companies to China threatens their national security. And we’ve strengthened the group, the entity, that screens Chinese and other foreign investments here in the United States. We are also fighting the battle to make sure that the Chinese Communist Party cannot burrow into the data of billions of internet users through companies like Huawei and ZTE. (Applause.) The internet of tomorrow must have buried within it Western values and must not belong to China. (Applause.)
This has been a real pivot to Asia. (Laughter.)
So look, how else are we putting America First? As I – I gave a speech in Brussels. I didn’t get any of this applause. (Laughter.) (Cheers and applause.) I talked – I spoke that day in Brussels about international agreements and institutions in which the United States enters, and I said that for us to continue to participate it must be with our consent and has to serve our interests and ideals. It seemed pretty straightforward. (Laughter.)
Look, consider our stated intent to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty with Russia. I don’t watch much TV, but I have seen the media mandarins swear up and down that America was putting the world closer to nuclear war. But as the 28 NATO Allies unanimously concurred, Russia is in violation of the treaty, putting Vladimir Putin closer to an asymmetric advantage of his nuclear forces. Why would one party honor a deal when the other wouldn’t? It made no sense. (Applause.) We chose to abrogate the treaty but not abrogate defending the American people. (Applause.) I’ll put it another way: Our decision on missiles wasn’t rocket science. (Laughter.) Yeah, that was one of your own wrote that one. (Laughter.)
Look, we’re also working to ensure that the future of international agreements unambiguously advances American interest. Past efforts, agreements that we entered into with North Korea, only produced more North Korean nukes and American diplomatic failure. Our diplomacy with the DPRK is laser-focused on making sure that we never again have to reopen the North Korean nuclear file.
I just this past trip to Hanoi came across a major threshold. I had spent more time with Chairman Kim than even Dennis Rodman. (Laughter and applause.)
But I want you all to know this is serious business. We want to make sure that Americans are safe, and we are determined to get our policy with North Korea and to get our allies, Japan and South Korea, and to convince the Russians and the Chinese that this is in the world’s best interest. And our diplomatic efforts to get the entire world to engage, to see the risk for what it is, and to help us get North Korea to a brighter future, is something that our administration is profoundly proud of. (Applause.)
And finally, putting America First means proudly associating with nations that share our principles and are willing to defend them. It’s true; we had some earlier comments from Washington’s Farewell Address. He warned against permanent alliances, but that same speech praised connections with nations based on “policy, humanity, and interest.”
We have reaffirmed America’s historic alliance with the only free nation in the Middle East: Israel. (Cheers and applause.)
We are banding together with the likeminded nations like Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea to make sure that each Indo-Pacific nation can protect its sovereignty from coercion. It’s part of a greater commitment to a free and open order. You all know this: The distinctive mark of Western Civilization is the belief in the inherent worth of human beings, with the attendant respect for God-authored rights and liberties. Indeed, the Declaration says that “all men are created equal.” And we ought to help nations protect these first things – and human rights as well.
This new pride in taking America’s interests seriously is not just an American phenomenon. Countries all over the world are rediscovering their national identities, and we are supporting them. We’re asking them to do what’s best for their people as well. The wave of electoral surprises has swept from Britain to the United States and all the way to Brazil.
You’ve all heard the famous line, “What’s good for General Motors is good for the United States.” (Laughter.) I actually think the last administration would have said, “What’s good for the world is good for the United States.” Our focus is that, “What’s good for the United States – a foreign policy animated by love of our unique way of life – is good for the world. (Applause.)
And as I wrap out, I want to talk about why that is.
First, countries who share our same principles find new avenues for collaboration with us. I mentioned before I returned from an Arctic Council Ministerial, a bunch of foreign ministers from eight countries whose nations touch the Arctic’s. I made it clear America is now sharpening its focus in an area of increasing strategic importance. We want to cooperate with likeminded democracies who share our vision of the Arctic, and guard against those who don’t – nations like China and Russia. My task as America’s most senior diplomat of building alliances is hard work, but they are essential for securing the rights the Founders sought to protect.
Second, love of one’s country forces leaders to better honor the will of their own people. President Trump does that every day. (Applause.)
Hamilton had it right. Hamilton had the right idea. He said, “Under every form of government, rulers are only trustees for the happiness and interest of their nation.” If democratic leaders are not responsive to the jolts of patriotism which are sweeping the world, they won’t be leaders for long. Those who understand that nations are the best vehicle for securing the rights of their citizens will have a much longer shelf life. (Applause.)
Third – the third reason why is that I’ve always been a big believer in competition. I didn’t like it when I ran a small business. I wanted my own little monopoly. (Laughter.) But the truth of the matter is we all know that America can compete and win against our adversaries on security and any economic issue. But even more importantly, competition forces the best ideas to rise. And among political ideas, there is none better than the American idea. (Cheers and applause.)
I have the enormous privilege to serve as America’s most senior diplomat, and what I want the world to see – the unsurpassed attractiveness of the American experiment – is something I market every day. I want other nations to take this same path. Our first president desired the same thing. He used words like this. He said, “The applause, the affection, and the adoption of every nation which is yet a stranger to it.”
Look, what I’ve just outlined here is a foreign policy that returns America to old truths. We talk about this inside the State Department all the time. Let’s speak about real facts and real truth. It’s something I know that this institute, the Claremont Institute, has a deep appreciation for. President Trump has helped put the world back on track to a nation-first trajectory, and I am confident that this reawakening will last well beyond this, his presidency. As just one example you should see, look at how both parties now are on guard against the threat that China presents to America – maybe except Joe Biden. (Laughter and applause.) God love him. (Laughter.)
Winston Churchill – a name very near to this, dear to this organization – said, “America is like a giant boiler. Light a fire under it, and there’s no limit to the amount of heat it can generate.” A fire was truly lit back in 2016. Bathed in its light, we have embarked on a foreign policy that takes seriously the Founders’ ideas of individual liberty and constitutional government. And because of it, American exceptionalism – and the American Founding – will remain alive and well in the 21st century.
Thank you, God bless you, and may God bless these United States of America. (Applause.)

Paulo Cordeiro e Vera Estrela: saudades - Paulo de Tarso

Com a sugestão de leitura do Blog Tarso Marketing:


Paulo de Tarso
Blog Tarso Marketing
Salvador, Bahia

Saudade: Paulo Cordeiro & Vera Estrela


As cerimônias de despedida ao casal, Embaixador Paulo Cordeiro de Andrade Pinto e Embaixatriz Vera Lúcia Ribeiro Estrela de Andrade Pinto foram realizadas no Cemitério Jardim da Saudade, em Salvador, nesta segunda-feira, 20 de maio.





O Embaixador do Libano junto ao Governo Brasileiro, Joseph Sayah, veio diretamente de Brasília para prestar as últimas homenagens ao diplomata. Presentes também os Comandantes do II Distrito Naval, Vice-Almirante Marcelo Francisco Campos, da VI Região Militar, General de Brigada Marcos André da Silva Alvim e o Comandante da Base Aérea de Salvador, Coronel José Henrique Kaipper.


Embaixador do Líbano, Joseph Sayah, Graça Siqueira e o General Elito Siqueira

Marinha, Exército e Aeronáutica 

A missa foi presidida pelo Arcebispo de Salvador e Primaz do Brasil. Dom Murilo Krieger destacou a sólida fé católica do casal, a preocupação do Embaixador Paulo Cordeiro com a reconstrução da Igreja do Sagrado Coração de Jesus, em Monte Santo, após o incêndio ocorrido na noite da Sexta-feira Santa, 19 de abril passado. Mesmo estando em Beirute, o diplomata entrou em contato com o Bispo de Senhor do Bonfim, poucas horas após o sinistro, para manifestar interesse em ajudar e fazer uma doação financeira em prol do templo onde foi batizado.




As bênçãos finais feitas pelo Arcebispo Dom Murilo Krieger
 Um dos 3 filhos do casal, João Mateus Cordeiro Estrela de Andrade Pinto, fez um discurso, muito emocionado, relatando a alegria que foi ter convivido com pais exemplares e afirmou que é mais do que necesário sabermos amar e perdoar, pois a vida é um dom único.


Os irmãos Pedro, João Mateus e Gabriel Estrela de Andrade Pinto
Alguns familiares e amigos, como o cunhado Tatá, o General Elito Siqueira, ex-Ministro de Estado do Gabinete de Segurança Institucional da Presidência da República, a Embaixadora Marcela Nicodemos, Chefe do Escritório de Representação do Itamaraty na Bahia, também proferiram palavras de despedidas ao casal, enfatizando a alegria que foi ter convivido com os dois, fosse no seio familiar ou profissional.

Escândalo na Austria: consequências para a extrema-direita europeia? -France Info

Uma referência à maneira como o primeiro-ministro da Hungria, Viktor Orban, adquiriu a maior parte dos jornais do país pode ter um impacto igualmente fora da Austria.
Não esquecer igualmente que o partido de Marine Le Pen recebeu um grande financiamento de Putin.
A Rússia tem grande interesse no enfraquecimento da UE, e não apenas por causa da Ucrânia.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Autriche : on vous explique "l'affaire d'Ibiza" qui torpille l'extrême droite et le gouvernement

Le vice-chancelier et président du Parti de la liberté, Heinz-Christian Strache, annonce sa démission lors d\'une conférence de presse, le 18 mai 2019 à Vienne.
Le vice-chancelier et président du Parti de la liberté, Heinz-Christian Strache, annonce sa démission lors d'une conférence de presse, le 18 mai 2019 à Vienne. (UNBEKANNT / APA-PICTUREDESK VIA AFP)
Une vidéo tournée en caméra cachée en 2017 et diffusée vendredi montre le vice-chancelier nationaliste Heinz-Christian Strache en train de discuter de manœuvres illicites avec une mystérieuse femme russe. 
Le scandale fait tomber l'extrême droite autrichienne et vaciller la coalition au pouvoir. Dans une vidéo tournée en caméra cachée et diffusée par des médias allemands, le vice-chancelier et leader d'extrême droite Heinz-Christian Strache se montre prêt à se compromettre avec un intermédiaire russe, en échange de financements. Le dirigeant du Parti de la liberté (FPÖ) a démissionné de ses fonctions de vice-chancelier et de chef de parti samedi 18 mai, au lendemain de la diffusion des images. Dans la foulée, le chancelier conservateur (ÖVP) Sebastian Kurz a limogé le ministre de l'Intérieur, Herbert Kickl, lundi, entraînant le départ de tous les autres ministres d'extrême droite. Le chancelier est désormais visé par une motion de censure, qui sera votée le 27 mai.
On vous explique cet "Ibiza-gate", qui a plongé l'extrême droite autrichienne et tout le gouvernement de coalition dans la crise.

C'est quoi, cette vidéo ?

Les journaux allemands Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) et Der Spiegel ont publié, vendredi 17 mai, une vidéo tournée en caméra cachée à Ibiza. Selon les deux journaux, elle dure au total plus de six heures et a été tournée en juillet 2017, dans une villa de l'île des Baléares. Seuls des extraits du document ont été diffusés. On y voit Heinz-Christian Strache de profil, assis dans un canapé et visiblement sous l'emprise de l'alcool, s'adresser à une interlocutrice hors-champ, qui s'est présentée comme étant Aliona Makarova, "nièce" d'un oligarque russe, Igor Makarov. Présent à l'écran, Johann Gudenus, un lieutenant de Heinz-Christian Strache, fait la traduction.
Ils évoquent ensemble la Kronen Zeitung, le plus important journal autrichien. "Dis-lui que si elle rachète la Kronen Zeitung trois semaines avant les élections et nous propulse à la première place, nous sommes ouverts à toutes les discussions", déclare Heinz-Christian Strache. Il ajoute ensuite que son interlocutrice n'a qu'à dire quels domaines d'activité l'intéressent "et on verra ce qui peut nous arranger. (...) Elle aura tous les contrats publics remportés aujourd'hui par Strabag" – un groupe autrichien de construction.
Heinz-Christian Strache raconte aussi son désir de mettre au pas les médias de son pays et confie son admiration pour l'investisseur autrichien Heinrich Pecina"qui a racheté tous les médias hongrois ces quinze dernières années pour Orban", le Premier ministre hongrois. Sont également évoqués des fonds d'origine frauduleuse, mais aussi le financement du FPÖ via une "fondation d'intérêt général", qui permet, selon Strache, de ne pas avoir à déclarer les financements à la cour des comptes.

D'où vient-elle ?

Le Spiegel et le SZ ne révèlent pas l'origine de la vidéo et précisent qu'ils refuseront de la remettre aux enquêteurs. Elle a été confiée aux journalistes d'investigation dans des circonstances rocambolesques, selon ces derniers, invités à se rendre dans une "station-service" puis "un hôtel désert". Heinz-Christian Strache ne conteste pas son authenticité et l'absence de trucage a été confirmée par des experts mandatés par les deux médias allemands, avant diffusion. Le Kremlin a pour sa part assuré n'avoir "rien à voir" avec cette vidéo.
L'existence de celle-ci était tout de même connue d'un certain nombre de rédactions. Le rédacteur en chef de l'hebdomadaire autrichien Falter a ainsi indiqué avoir été approché à son sujet "il y a un an", sans qu'il y ait eu de suites. Un humoriste allemand, Jan Böhmermann, a par ailleurs cité, en avril, des extraits de cette vidéo avant qu'elle ne soit rendue publique.

Heinz-Christian Strache a-t-il été piégé ?

C'est possible. En effet, son interlocutrice, Aliona Makarova, est bien mystérieuse. La jeune femme est entrée en contact avec Johann Gudenus quelques moins avant, expliquant vouloir investir en Autriche. Un rapport de confiance s'est installé entre eux. Mais au cours de la soirée, Heinz-Christian Strache, remarquant les orteils peu soignés d'Aliona Makarova, y voit un détail difficilement compatible avec son statut. "C'est un piège, un piège grossier", glisse alors Strache à Gudenus. Lequel le rassure : "C'est pas un piège".
Mais voilà, interrogé par l'édition russe de Forbes, Igor Makarov, président du groupe international de sociétés Areti, spécialisé dans les investissements dans les secteurs pétrolier et gazier, assure être fils unique et donc ne pas pouvoir avoir de nièce. "Je n'ai aucun lien de parenté avec cette personne et ne la connais même pas", ajoute-t-il.

Le gouvernement va-t-il exploser ?

Heinz-Christian Strache et Sebastian Kurz avaient formé en décembre 2017 un gouvernement de coalition, pour un mandat de cinq ans, comprenant six ministres d'extrême droite à des postes stratégiques, dont les ministères de l'Intérieur et des Affaires étrangères. Mais cette affaire marque peut-être la fin de l'extrême droite au pouvoir en Autriche. En tout cas la fin de l'expérience d'un gouvernement de coalition droite-extrême droite.
Le scandale a d'abord entraîné la chute de Heinz-Christian Strache, qui a présenté sa démission et des excuses pour des propos "catastrophiques" et un comportement "adolescent" et "macho". Mais le chancelier conservateur Sebastian Kurz ne s'est pas contenté de ce départ. Il a annoncé samedi la convocation prochaine d'élections législatives anticipées, prévues pour l'automne. Surtout, il a limogé, lundi, le ministre de l'Intérieur Herbert Kickl, tête pensante du FPÖ, dont il juge les fonctions incompatibles avec le déroulement de l'enquête sur la vidéo. "Il est clair que M. Kickl ne peut pas enquêter sur lui-même", a martelé le chancelier.  Le limogeage d'Herbert Kickl s'est immédiatement traduit par le départ de l'ensemble des ministres FPÖ du gouvernement, ceux des Affaires étrangères, de la Défense, des Transports et du Travail.
Le chancelier conservateur Sebastian Kurz sort lui aussi affaibli de cette affaire. Le petit parti écologiste Jetzt a présenté une motion de censure contre lui, qui sera votée le 27 mai. Les sociaux démocrates et le FPÖ n'excluent pas de voter cette motion, qui, dans cette hypothèse, aboutirait à une chute du chancelier, après seulement 18 mois au pouvoir.

Quel impact sur les élections européennes ?

L'extrême droite autrichienne va désormais devoir tenter de limiter la casse aux élections européennes. S'il est impossible de mesurer précisément l'impact de l'affaire sur le vote des électeurs, il est toutefois certain "que ça ne va pas aider le parti d'extrême droite", estime l'historien Jérôme Segal, maître de conférences à l'université Paris-Sorbonne, pour franceinfo.
Le Parti de la liberté (FPÖ) a toutefois déjà perdu cinq points d'indice, dans une enquête d'opinion après la publication de la vidéo, citée par Reuters. Le sondage conduit par The Research Affaires pour le site d'actualité Oe24 montre que le FPÖ obtiendrait 18% des suffrages en cas d'élections. Un recul qui bénéficie en partie aux conservateurs. Le Parti populaire autrichien (ÖVP) du chancelier Sebastian Kurz est lui crédité de 38%, soit une hausse de quatre points d'indice.
Le scandale pourrait aussi faire vasciller toute l'extrême droite européenne. Pour Matthias Jung, chef de l'institut de sondage allemand Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, "ce scandale pourrait freiner l'avancée des populistes en Europe". L'expert, interrogé par le quotidien allemand Der Tagesspiegel, estime que les électeurs pro-européens pourraient être incités à aller voter dans l'optique de faire barrage à l'extrême droite. Et les sympathisants des partis populistes "vont désormais réfléchir à deux fois s'ils veulent donner leur voix à ces gens", remarque de son côté le politologue allemand Werner Patzelt, également dans le Tagesspiegel, qui prédit des conséquences néfastes pour le parti Alternative pour l'Allemagne (AfD).

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