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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida

quinta-feira, 1 de março de 2018

Relatório economico da OCDE sobre o Brasil, 2018

Divulgado no Banco Central do Brasil em 27/02/2018. Neste link:

http://www.academia.edu/36055847/OECD_Economic_Surveys_BRAZIL

OECD Economic Surveys BRAZIL
Fev. 2018, 166 p. 
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OECD Economic Surveys: Brazil 2018
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS │ 3
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: BRAZIL 2018 © OECD 2018
 
Table of contents
 
Basic statistics of Brazil, 2016........ 8
Executive summary ....................................................... 9
Sustaining inclusive growth with further significant reforms .................... 10
Stronger investment and productivity are key for future growth ................ 10
Brazil can seize greater benefits from greater global and regional integration .......... 10
Assessment and recommendations ................................... 13
The economy is gradually emerging from the recession ................. 20
Inflation has declined but financial intermediation could be improved ............ 25
Fiscal outcomes need to improve to ensure the sustainability of public debt ....... 28
Improving governance and reducing corruption ......................... 42
Raising investment is a key policy priority ................................... 43
Supporting the integration with the region and the world economy ................ 49
Green growth challenges....................................... 57
Bibliography .................................................. 61
Thematic chapters ....................
Chapter 1. Raising investment and improving infrastructure ................... 69
Stronger investment is a key requisite for solid growth .......................... 70
Why has investment been so weak? ....................................... 73
Raising returns on investment ........................................... 78
Strengthening competition and shifting resources to firms with the best investment opportunities .. 94
Attracting private investment into infrastructure projects .................................. 96
Improving access to investment financing ................................. 103
Bibliography .................................]............................. 113

Description of the empirical Annex 1.A. analysis and results ............. 118
Chapter 2. Fostering Brazil’s integration into the world economy ............... 121
Brazil is missing out on the opportunities arising from international trade ............. 122
Trade barriers have significant economic effects .............. 131
Seizing the opportunities of the global economy ....................... 140
Policy options to strengthen integration ......................... 148
Making trade work for all Brazilians ...................................... 150
Bibliography ....................................................... 159
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS │ 5
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: BRAZIL 2018 © OECD 2018
Figure 1.7.Private sector assets under management ........................... 76
Figure 1.8. Brazil attracts less direct investment than other countries in the region ..... 77
Figure 1.9. FDI restrictions are low compared to OECD countries .................. 77
Figure 1.10. Regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship are high .............. 78
Figure 1.11. Ease of starting a business ................................... 79
Figure 1.12. The court system is slow to resolve commercial disputes ......... 83
Figure 1.13. Insolvencies are slow and recovery rates low ........................ 84
Figure 1.14. Hours required to prepare taxes .......................... 85
Figure 1.15. Unit labour costs have risen ....................... 88
Figure 1.16. Minimum wages are high in international comparison ... 89
Figure 1.17. Skill gaps are significant ........................... 90
Figure 1.18. Many firms struggle to fill jobs ...................... 90
Figure 1.19. The state of Ceará has made substantial progress in education quality ....... 92
Figure 1.20. The share of students in vocational and technical programmes is low ..... 93
Figure 1.21. Investment in infrastructure is low ................... 97
Figure 1.22. Density of paved road network by country .............. 98
Figure 1.23. Mobile telecom services are relatively expensive .......... 103
Figure 1.24. Real lending rates are extremely high .................... 104
Figure 1.25. Investment has been inversely correlated with ex-ante real interest rates ........ 104
Figure 1.26. BNDES disbursements and credit subsidies remain high ............ 105
Figure 1.27. Infrastructure finance is dominated by public banks, in particular BNDES ........ 107
Figure 2.1. Exposure to trade is low and export performance has declined ........... 123
Figure 2.2. Brazil integration in global value chains is minimal ....... 124
Figure 2.3. Brazil has remained on the side lines of global value chains .........125
Figure 2.4. Prices are relatively high ..................................... 126
Figure 2.5. The share of imported inputs is low ....................................... 127
Figure 2.6. Export diversification has fallen ........................... 128
Figure 2.7. The share of processed agriculture and good exports has diminished .......129
Figure 2.8. Brazil’s participation in food GVCs is small ................................. 130
Figure 2.9. China is Brazil's main trading partner .................................. 131
Figure 2.10. Brazil has not gained new markets for its exports in recent years .......131
Figure 2.11. Tariffs barriers are high ......................................... 132
Figure 2.12. Tariff to intermediate and capital products are very high ............... 134
Figure 2.13. Sectors with high tariffs are also hampered by high tariffs on their inputs.... 134
Figure 2.14. Brazil makes a large use of non-tariff trade barriers ............. 135
Figure 2.15. Local content rules are relatively abundant in Brazil ............. 136
Figure 2.16. The number of antidumping measures in effect in Brazil is relatively large ....... 137
Figure 2.17. The cost to export is high ................ 138
Figure 2.18. Trade facilitation procedures could improve further.............. 138
Figure 2.19. Brazil restricts trade in services more than other countries ........... 140
Figure 2.20. Sectors using more imported inputs will benefit more from tariff cuts .... 142
Figure 2.21. Estimated responses of value added by sector to changes in trade protection ...144
Figure 2.22. The share of tertiary graduates is relatively low .................. 146
Figure 2.23. Reducing tariffs would benefit especially low-income households ..... 148
Figure 2.24. Spending on active labour market is very concentrated in subsidies ......... 152
Figure 2.25. Vocational education is not well developed .................... 153
Figure 2.26. There are large differences in tariff protection across states ........... 154
Figure 2.27. Educational differences across regions are large .................... 157

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