Ukraine: 2023 explained - Anton Gerashenko

 From Anton Geraschenko:

“ It is the end of the year and there are many articles, expert opinions, and simply personal conclusions about 2023, which is ending, as well as predictions for the next year, 2024, for Ukraine and the world. 

Here are some of my thoughts about 2023:

The year 2023 was not the year of Victory for Ukraine and our allies, as many believed. Nor did I hope it would be. But it was not a year of defeat either. It was the year of the hardest marathon. A year of dragging out the war. A year of realism and hard work. Another year that Ukraine endured and withstood.

Ukraine didn't get enough aid for a counter-offensive and the war became positional, protracted, and of a trench type. 

Then the conflict in the Middle East erupted. The focus of attention shifted and Ukraine practically disappeared from the agenda of global media. Ukraine started to receive not only less attention but also less aid. 

Russia has made many conclusions this year, changed its tactics and its goals. Russia is learning. If earlier, in February 2022, they were counting on a blitzkrieg, in 2023 Russia has set itself up for a long war: it has completely put its economy on a wartime footing, pushed the military-industrial complex to the maximum, agreed on massive arms deliveries with its allied dictators, and these agreements are not hampered by bureaucracy and deliveries are taking place quickly and regularly.

Putin finally "cleaned up" his entourage after surviving Prigozhin's mutiny. He eliminated Prigozhin, as well as Wagner PMC leadership, and dealt with the generals involved in the mutiny. 

Putin has become more aggressive, confident, and active. He is now permanently bound to the war and his power is directly tied to the war.

Russia openly states that this war is the beginning of the re-division of the world. It is a war not only with Ukraine but with the West and the US. Putin is building an empire. 

Russia has not had any significant victories this year, but it has mobilized, regrouped, and is becoming increasingly dangerous. 

This year Russia has waged the war on many frontlines: cyber wars, wars against civilian infrastructure, information wars (huge bot factories on all social networks), corrupting politicians, journalists, espionage, desecration, interfering in elections, attempting to disunite, sowing panic, sowing discord among allies. Russian propaganda may seem crude and primitive at first glance, but it is not. It has its audience not only in Russia and forms certain moods. The theses of Russian propaganda can be seen in many Western sources. Fighting the propaganda must continue!

Personally for me, this year was a year of heavy losses. My close friends died. 

I shut down my emotions and became much less public. 

In 2022, my main focus was to draw the world's attention to Russia's war crimes in Ukraine. I gave a huge number of interviews and spoke to diplomats, journalists, and philanthropists. 

This year, I focused on improving Ukraine's defense capabilities and on charity projects.

I didn't believe the war would be over quickly. But I am not among those who think that this horror will last forever. All wars end and it is important for us that the conditions for Ukraine are the best possible. 

This year, I've been focused on specific actions and specific things. Without inflated expectations. It's been a year of constant work. For the sake of all who are gone and for the sake of all who will live.

A little later I will write what I expect from 2024 and what we want to achieve. Thank you to everyone who is by our side, who is our friend, who supports Ukraine! I appreciate you all immensely and I am deeply grateful to you all!”

December 17, 2023