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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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quarta-feira, 16 de abril de 2014

A felicidade se encontra em coisas simples, como a leitura, por exemplo - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Reflexão sobre a felicidade a partir de coisas simples...

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

“Feliz aquele que transfere o que sabe e aprende o que ensina”
Cora Coralina, poeta de Goiás (1889-1985)

Tomei conhecimento tardiamente da frase acima de Cora Coralina e, quando dela me “apossei”, constatei que outros milhares de leitores, um tribo imensa de curiosos, professores e candidatos a poetas já a tinham incorporado em centenas de outras citações, provavelmente esparsas e incompletas. O Google “devolveu” 107 mil resultados para uma busca com essas palavras entre aspas, o que descontando as inúmeras repetições consolida, ainda assim, vasto repositório de citações de uma frase simples e no entanto imensamente poética e cativante.
Creio, como muitos outros antes de mim, que a felicidade pode estar justamente nesse ato de ensino-aprendizado, que de fato me parece uma dupla atividade, nos dois sentidos captados pela poeta de Goiás velho. Sempre aprendemos algo tentando ensinar alguma coisa a outras pessoas, pois a própria atividade docente constitui um aprendizado constante. Eu pelo menos estou sempre lendo algo para melhorar minhas aulas, trazendo novos materiais em classe, enviando artigos aos alunos, esforçando-me para que eles consigam superar o volume forçosamente limitado daquilo que é humanamente possível transmitir em sala de aula.
Eu me permitiria acrescentar à singela constatação da poeta goiana uma outra fonte de felicidade, que aliás está implícita no seu sentido do ensino: o hábito da leitura. Aproveito para transcrever uma outra frase, de um escritor e dramaturgo conhecido, autor reputado popular, ainda que personalidade sabidamente complicada:
“Eu não tenho o hábito da leitura. Eu tenho a paixão da leitura. O livro sempre foi para mim uma fonte de encantamento. Eu leio com prazer e com alegria”. Ariano Suassuna.
Creio poder dizer que eu não tenho apenas a paixão da leitura. Talvez minha atitude esteja mais próxima da obsessão, da compulsão, um verdadeiro delirium tremens na fixação do texto escrito, qualquer que seja ele, do mais simples ao mais elaborado. Quando digo obsessão, não pretendo de forma alguma referir-me a algo doentio, fora de controle, pois sou absolutamente calmo e controlado em minhas visitas a livrarias e bibliotecas: contemplo com calma cada lombada ou capa e apenas ocasionalmente retiro um livro para consultar seu interior. Não me deixo dominar pelos livros e de forma alguma sou um bibliófilo ou mesmo um colecionador de livros. Na verdade, não consigo me enquadrar em nenhuma categoria dessas que supostamente compõem o mundo dos amantes de livros.
Para começar, não tenho nenhum respeito pelos livros, nenhuma devoção especial, nenhum cuidado em manuseá-los ou guardá-los (muito mal, por sinal, pois acabo me perdendo na selva de livros que constitui minha caótica biblioteca, se é que ela merece mesmo esse título). Os livros, para mim, são objetos de uso, de consumo, de manuseio indiferente, eles só valem pelo seu conteúdo, como instrumentos de aquisição de um saber, que este sim, eu reputo indispensável a uma vida merecedora de ser vivida.
Não hesitaria um só instante em trocar todos os meus livros por versões eletrônicas, se e quando esse formato se revelar mais cômodo e mais interessante ao manuseio e leitura. Não hesito em sacrificar um livro se devo lê-lo em condições inadequadas, pois o que vale é o que podemos capturar em seu interior, não sua aparência externa ou sua conservação impecável. Ou seja, não sou um colecionador de livros, sou um “colhedor” de leituras, um agricultor da página impressa, um cultivador do texto editado, eventualmente também um semeador de conhecimento a partir dessas leituras contínuas.
De fato, o que me permite ser professor, resenhista de livros (tudo menos profissional, já que só resenho os livros que desejo) e, talvez até, um escrevinhador contumaz, antes que de sucesso, é esse hábito arraigado da leitura ininterrupta, em toda e qualquer circunstância, para grande desespero de familiares e outros “convivas”. Estou sempre lendo, algumas vezes até quando dirijo carro – o que, sinceramente, não recomendo –, mas ainda não encontrei um livro impermeável à água para leitura na ducha (na banheira seria mais fácil, mas não tenho paciência para esse tipo de prática).
Creio que a felicidade pode ser encontrada nesse tipo de coisas simples: um bom livro, uma boa música, um ambiente acolhedor, um sofá confortável, o que, confesso, raramente acontece comigo. Acabo lendo na mesa do computador, segurando o livro com a perna e teclando de modo desajeitado ao anotar coisas para registro escrito do que li. Aliás, as duas mesas de trabalho que existem em meu escritório, já não comportam mais nenhum livro: as pilhas se acumulam dos dois lados do teclado, e a outra mesa já está alta de jornais, revistas e livros, muitos livros, que também se esparramam pelo chão, como as batatinhas daquele poema infantil.
Leitor anárquico que sou, tenho livros em processo de leitura espalhados pelos diversos cômodos da casa, um pouco em todas as partes, novamente para desespero dos familiares. Não creio que  venha a mudar agora esses maus hábitos. O que me deixa mesmo pensativo é a dúvida sobre quantos anos ainda terei pela frente para “liquidar” tod os os livros (meus e de outras procedências), que aguardam leitura. Preciso de mais 80 ou 100...
       

Brasília, 1838: 19 novembro 2007

Escandalos da Petrobras: deu no New York Times... - Simon Romero



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 Brazil’s Star, Petrobras, Is Hobbled by Scandal and Stagnation



RIO DE JANEIRO — No company has embodied Brazil’s rise like the oil giant Petrobras.
Bolstered by some of this century’s largest oil discoveries, Petrobras soared into the top ranks of global energy producers. Executives at the state-controlled company boasted that it could even outstrip Apple as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company. Political leaders here said Brazil was on the cusp of energy independence.
Now Petrobras is coming to symbolize something else entirely: the disarray afflicting Brazil’s sluggish economy and the reassessment of growth prospects in emerging markets around the world.
Instead of surging, Petrobras’s oil production has stagnated, heightening Brazil’s reliance on imported oil. Petrobras finds itself mired in corruption investigations and claims of managerial incompetence. And its debt load is exploding: Petrobras now ranks as the world’s most indebted company, dependent, more or less, on United States mutual funds to finance its ambitious investment plans.

Photo
A view of Petrobras’s Abreu e Lima oil refinery, currently under construction in the Brazilian state of Pernambuco. The refinery’s estimated cost has risen to $18.5 billion from an initial $2.5 billion. Investigators are looking into whether bribery was involved.CreditYasuyoshi Chiba/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

“The decline of Petrobras has been stunning, swift and painful,” said Fábio Fuzetti, a partner at Antares Capital Management, a São Paulo investment firm. “This is the energy company that served as the model for others in developing countries,” he said. “Now it’s the example of precisely what not to do.”
Despite these problems, executives at Petrobras point out that the company still has clear strengths. The company, which remains profitable over all despite mounting losses from importing fuel, is a pioneer in deep-sea exploration. And Petrobras commands coveted assets around the world, including oil and gas reserves of about 13 billion barrels.
In a statement, a spokeswoman for Petrobas said that debt levels had climbed as the company invests in offshore oil and expanding refining capacity. “We’ll have an inflection point in our debt starting in 2015, when revenue generation will surpass investment, initiating a trajectory of debt reduction,” said Paula Almada, the spokeswoman.
Pointing to the tension building over Petrobras’s woes, senators grilled the company’s chief executive, Maria das Graças Foster, on Tuesday. She contended that losses related to a controversial Houston refinery deal were being overestimated. Defending the company’s strategies, she said, “No operation is 100 percent safe.”
So far foreign bondholders, who now fund a record 43 percent of the company’s giant investment program, have been remarkably patient. But analysts warn that much of this largess has been driven by the global liquidity glut. If Petrobras’s troubles continue to mount, it could run into resistance on international markets.
The ills that plague Petrobras — too much debt and spending for too little return — reflect a larger concern that the golden age for Brazil, China, Russia and Turkey, once the vanguard of the emerging-market boom, is coming to an end.
“The problem with Brazil is that the days of 4 percent growth are gone,” said Tony Volpon, a Latin America expert at Nomura Securities, who expects the country’s economy to expand at well below 2 percent this year.
The problems at Petrobras, which is 60.5 percent owned by Brazil’s government, have come into sharp relief in recent weeks as the company grapples with a simmering scandal over its acquisition of a Houston refinery, beginning in 2006 and completed years later, at an estimated cost of $1.19 billion from Astra, a Belgian oil trading company that bought the refinery for just $42.5 million in 2005.
Police here also recently arrested one of Petrobras’s most powerful former executives, Paulo Roberto Costa, who led refining operations until 2012. Investigators say he was involved in a sprawling money-laundering scheme and may have received bribes related to the construction of a refinery that has ballooned in cost to $18.5 billion from $2.5 billion.
The list goes on. Petrobras faces scrutiny over claims that its employees received $139 million in bribes from SBM Offshore, a Dutch supplier of oil rigs. Petrobras said this month that an internal audit had not found evidence of the bribes, but federal investigators are still examining the matter. Another investigation is looking into claims of gross overbilling in an $825 million contract with Odebrecht, the Brazilian construction and oil services giant.
Despite the scandals, Petrobras remains Brazil’s most powerful company. Even as the company aims to invest about $220 billion over the next five years, Mr. Volpon points out that most other companies in Brazil are not following suit. On the global stage, he says, Brazilian companies, hobbled by high interest rates, inflation and an expensive currency, are becoming less competitive.
Meanwhile, Petrobras, in the last five years, has sold $51 billion worth of bonds to yield-starved global investors, nearly a quarter of all corporate bonds emanating from Brazil and the most of any emerging-market company, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.
But the munificence of foreign investors is not bottomless. As interest rates in the United States creep up and as Brazil’s finances come under greater stress, Petrobras’s top creditors — which include mutual fund giants like Pimco, Fidelity and BlackRock — may well view their exposure as too risky and begin to unload their bonds.
“It’s just such a big issuer,” said Gary N. Kleiman, an emerging-market investment consultant who says that a Petrobras sell-off could ignite a broader emerging-market pullback. “We are just waiting for this thing to blow up.”
Citing the increasing debt load, Moody’s downgraded the company’s debt last October to Baa1, the third-lowest investment grade rating offered by the credit agency.
The effect on Petrobras’s financing ambitions has been minimal.
Nearly a year after setting an emerging-market record with an $11 billion bond sale, the company tapped the bond market last month for yet another monster offering. Petrobras raised $8.5 billion, the biggest corporate debt offering of the year, period.
Meanwhile, as corruption scandals ensnare Petrobras, the company is struggling to lift oil and gas production, which fell 2.2 percent in 2013 to an average of 2.55 million barrels a day. There are signs this year that Petrobras may finally be succeeding in reversing such declines; the company’s oil production in Brazil climbed 0.3 percent in February from the previous month.
Perhaps Petrobras’s biggest challenge is that it is not just an energy company. It is also at the heart of a fierce debate here over the extent of the Brazilian government’s use of its wealth to achieve political and economic goals.
In an effort to keep inflation from accelerating during an election year, President Dilma Rousseff’s government has prevented Petrobras from raising fuel prices to meet the cost of importing refined gasoline and diesel. At the same time, domestic fuel consumption has surged since the Brazilian authorities offered incentives to car manufacturers to raise production.
The result is that Petrobras’s losses in its refining, transportation and marketing operations reached $8 billion in 2013.
Throughout the economy, examples abound of Petrobras being stretched thin by policies aimed at asserting greater state control over the oil industry, like measures requiring Petrobras to buy equipment domestically, effectively propping up inefficient industries in Brazil like shipbuilding.
Speaking at a Brazilian shipyard on Monday, Ms. Rousseff lashed out a critics of Petrobas and her government’s energy policies, describing the oil giant as Brazil’s “mother company.” Contending that any corruption at Petrobas would be rooted out by investigators, she accused political opponents of a “smear campaign” against the company.
Still, as these so-called local content rules make Petrobras’s costs skyrocket — and increase the company’s debt — energy analysts here are also growing dismayed over the crisis in Brazil’s once-envied ethanol industry, which has been shuttering dozens of plants as producers fail to compete in price with Petrobras’s subsidized gasoline.
Facing budgetary pressures, the authorities have also quietly stopped strengthening Brazil’s sovereign wealth fund. Created in 2008 soon after Petrobras announced its major oil discoveries, the fund was viewed as a pillar of efforts to establish greater financial stability in Brazil, as commodities exporters like Norway, Chile and Canada have done.
But in an attempt to meet a budget target for the 2012 fiscal year, officials withdrew about 80 percent of the money in the fund, leaving it with just $1.3 billion. Instead of replenishing the fund with proceeds from oil exports, Petrobras has grown more dependent on importing fuel and building costly projects, forcing its debt up.
Petrobras remains far from approaching the levels of political tension and opaque dealings that now characterize Petróleos de Venezuela, the acutely politicized oil producer owned by Venezuela’s government that was once considered an industry leader and a bastion of technical expertise.
But some contend that Petrobas is also being stretched by Brasília’s political ambitions. “Petrobras’s woes are the result of well-defined government policies,” said John Forman, a former head of the regulatory agency overseeing Brazil’s oil industry. “That’s where things get complicated, because changing the policies is challenging indeed.”

Pasadena: "Nao foi um bom negocio..." - Como nao? Foi um otimonegocio...

Depende do ponto de vista...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

'Não foi um bom negócio', diz Graça Foster sobre Pasadena

Republica Assistencialista do Brasil: ate onde querem chegar os demagogos?

Provavelmente à igualdade absoluta, ao igualitarismo: metade do país trabalha, a outra metade recebe.
Perfeito, não?
Em tempo: o BF tem 13 milhões de famílias, não de pessoas. São 45 milhões de pessoas vivendo no cartão magnético, uma Argentina inteira.
Perfeito, não?
Vamos chegar à metade da população com todos demagogos que pululam nas eleições.
Cáspite!
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Bolsa Família: mais 10 milhões, por Ilimar Franco

Ilimar Franco, O Globo
O candidato de oposição Eduardo Campos (PSB) vai propor a ampliação, em cerca de 10 milhões, do número de pessoas beneficiárias do Bolsa Família. Sua equipe de programa de governo estima que esse é o número dos que também atendem ao critério de baixa renda mensal. Na gestão da presidente Dilma, já recebem a bolsa 13,8 milhões de brasileiros. Seu custo em 2013 foi de R$ 437,2 milhões.




Kindle: melhorando a plataforma de uso, de consulta, de guarda de documentos... (thanks Amazon)

Como leitor compulsivo, leitor voraz de todas as formas de livro (ainda não tentei o papiro, mas já manipulei pergaminho), e de todas as formas de escrita (tenho ainda alguma dificuldade com os caracteres cuneiformes, os hieróglifos e o código Morse, mas domino bem umas cinco línguas de leitura), só posso ficar satisfeito com o que acaba de me anunciar a Amazon.
Não tenho, por falar nisso, nenhum aparelho Kindle, aliás não preciso.
Tenho as ferramentas Kindle instaladas em todos os meus devices: computador laptop, computador Desktop, iPad mini e em três iPhones (3, 4 e 5, desculpem...).
Portanto, onde quer que eu esteja (não, ainda não fizeram um para usar enquanto estou na ducha), tenho sempre à mão, um desses aparelhinhos para ler correspondência, notícias, ou livros inteiros, que ficam se atualizando automaticamente à medida que passo de um para o outro.
Para o metro, ônibus, ou bicicleta, por exemplo, ou esteira, melhor um iPhone, para a cama um iPad, na mesa de trabalho ou na poltrona de leitura o MacAir, no trabalho a telona em Rwindows (ugh) também tem o Kindle, onde posso acessar não apenas todos os livros que já comprei, ou que downloadei (ugh) de graça, mas também trabalhos meus (livros inteiros) ou textos que recebo, e que continuo a ler, en cours de route...
Qualquer coisa pode ser enviada ao Kindle, desde que aceita pelas ferramentas do sistema e transformada em texto apropriado para leitura.
Ainda vou comprar um Kindle, algum dia, só para agradecer à Amazon o favor que ela me faz ao me permitir ler de tudo, em qualquer lugar, a qualquer hora.
Ah, esse terrível vício da leitura, que nos consome, a nós viciados em leituras, justamente.
Mas não só de Kindle e Amazon vive a humanidade.
Também tem o iBooks da própria Apple, tem o BlueFire e o OverDrive, o e-pub da Adobe, além de dezenas de ferramentas de livros eletrônicos nos mais diversos formatos, entre eles Ebook Reader, Playbooks, etc.
Ou seja, o que não falta é suporte para leitura. Só falta tempo, mas vamos lendo aos pedaços mesmo, já que os tempos de leituras proustianas ficaram definitivamente para trás...
Enfim, chega de falar de leituras, e vamos à informação do novo Cloud Drive.
Thanks Amazon.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Dear Kindle Customer,

As a past user of personal documents on Kindle devices or reading apps, we are pleased to let you know about some improvements we've made to how personal documents work.

Personal documents are now in Amazon Cloud Drive: Starting today, all personal documents that you have archived in your Kindle Library will be available to access, delete, organize, and share from your Amazon Cloud Drive. You can see these documents in a new "My Send-to-Kindle Docs" folder alongside all of your saved content such as photos and personal videos.

There is no action required on your part. Your personal documents features will continue to work just as they have in the past. And as always, you can use Manage Your Kindle to see a list of your documents, re-deliver them to Kindle devices and free reading apps, delete them, or turn off auto-saving of documents to the cloud. Documents will be delivered just as they have in the past and you will continue to have 5 GB of free cloud storage for your personal documents. Just "Send Once, Read Everywhere."

Documents stored in their native format: Also starting today, new documents that you save to the cloud with Send to Kindle will be stored in their native format (e.g. MS Word, TXT) so you can access them anywhere from Amazon Cloud Drive.

Please note: Your usage of Amazon Cloud Drive is subject to the Amazon Cloud Drive Terms of Use.
Sincerely,
The Docs Team

To learn more about sending documents, news, blogs, and other web articles to your Kindle, please visit amazon.com/sendtokindle

To learn more about Amazon Cloud Drive features and apps, please visit amazon.com/clouddrive/learnmore

© Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon, Kindle, and Cloud Drive are trademarks of Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates.
Amazon.com, 410 Terry Avenue N., Seattle, WA 98109-5210.

Parece que foi ontem: 40 anos de Relacoes Internacionais na UnB


40 anos da graduação de Relações Internacionais da Universidade de Brasília, o mais tradicional curso de graduação em RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS DO BRASIL, que será realizado no período de 22 a 24 de abril de 2014.

No link abaixo, folder/programação.
Clique aqui folder

Atenciosamente,
Assessoria de Assuntos Internacionais

UnB

terça-feira, 15 de abril de 2014

Cuba-Venezuela: cronica de uma servidao voluntaria - Moises Naim

Documental: La Invasión Consentida de Cuba a Venezuela 2014 HD


Publicado em 01/04/2014
Cubanos sin pelos en la lengua
https://www.facebook.com/CubanosEnLaR...

World Bank Policy Research publications: poverty trap, Latin America and globalization, etc...

Acabo de receber, e ainda não li, mas vou ler pelo menos dois.
O primeiro tem a minha total discordância, por princípio, pois a noção de uma armadilha da pobreza é inerentemente anti-econômica. Todos podem progredir, desde que os estímulos certos sejam dados.
Essa coisa de armadilha da pobreza não é uma armadilha, e sim elites corruptas, governos incompetentes, ladrões e fenômenos no gênero. Todos podem se alçar na escala econômica.
O segundo, sobre a América Latina e a globalização, me parece um tanto distorcido.
É evidente que a América Latina deveria estar plenamente inserida no processo.
Se não o faz, mais uma vez é devido a governos incompetentes, elites ineptas, geralmente as duas coisas...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida


Table of Contents
Do Poverty Traps Exist?
Aart Kraay, World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)
David McKenzie, World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
Alan Fuchs, United Nations Development Programme
Lourdes Rodriguez-Chamussy, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Can Latin America Tap the Globalization Upside?
Augusto de la Torre, World Bank
Tatiana Didier, World Bank
Magali Pinat, World Bank
Learning from Financial Crises
Jamus Jerome Lim, World Bank
Geoffrey Minne, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

^top

WORLD BANK POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER ABSTRACTS
AART KRAAY, World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)
Email: akraay@worldbank.org
DAVID MCKENZIE,
World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Email: dmckenzie@worldbank.org
This paper reviews the empirical evidence on the existence of poverty traps, understood as self-reinforcing mechanisms through which poor individuals or countries remain poor. Poverty traps have captured the interest of many development policy makers, because poverty traps provide a theoretically coherent explanation for persistent poverty. They also suggest that temporary policy interventions may have long-term effects on poverty. However, a review of the reduced-form empirical evidence suggests that truly stagnant incomes of the sort predicted by standard models of poverty traps are in fact quite rare. Moreover, the empirical evidence regarding several canonical mechanisms underlying models of poverty traps is mixed.
ALAN FUCHS, United Nations Development Programme
Email: alan.fuchs@undp.org
LOURDES RODRIGUEZ-CHAMUSSY,
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Email: mlrodriguez@iadb.org
The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending.
This paper discusses the theoretical arguments in favor of and against economic globalization and, with a view to ascertaining whether Latin America may be able to capture the globalization upside, examines the trends and salient features of Latin America's globalization as compared with that of Southeast Asia. The paper focuses on trade and financial integration as well as the aggregate demand structures (domestic demand-driven versus external demand-driven) that underpin the globalization process. It finds that Latin America is mitigating some bad side effects of financial globalization by moving toward a safer form of international financial integration and improving its macro-financial policy frameworks. Nonetheless, Latin America's progress in raising the quality of its international trade integration has been scant. The region's commodity-heavy trade structures and relatively poor quality of trade connectivity can hinder growth potential to the extent that they are less conducive to technology and learning spillovers. Moreover, Latin America's domestic demand-driven growth pattern (a reflection of relatively low domestic savings) may become an additional drag to growth by accentuating the risk of a low savings-low external competitiveness trap.
JAMUS JEROME LIM, World Bank
Email: jlim@worldbank.org
GEOFFREY MINNE, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
Email: gminne@ulb.ac.be
This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance.

Petrobras-Pasadena: As curtas pernas da mentira - Coluna Carlos Brickmann

As curtas pernas da mentira
Coluna Carlos Brickmann, 15/04/2014


A presidente da Petrobras, Graça Foster, disse que a empresa perdeu US$ 530 milhões com a compra da refinaria de Pasadena, no Texas, EUA. "Definitivamente não foi um bom negócio". O ex-presidente da Petrobras, José Sérgio Gabrielli, acha que foi um bom negócio e que a refinaria de Pasadena dá lucro.

São duas opiniões, de duas pessoas que têm experiência no negócio. São opiniões divergentes; mas numa democracia é normal a divergência de opiniões.

Só que números são números. Segundo Gabrielli, a Petrobras pagou US$ 486 milhões pela Refinaria de Pasadena. Segundo Graça Foster, a Petrobras pagou US$ 1, 25 bilhão.

Há uma diferença de valores, entre o ex-presidente e a presidente atual, de US$ 764 milhões. Número não é opinião, não admite divergências. No caso de Pasadena, um dos dois está errado - muito, muito errado.

Diz a regra do jogo político que, antes de mentir, é preciso combinar direitinho com os demais participantes, para que todos mintam a mesma mentira. Essa precaução elementar foi esquecida: a diferença de um número para outro é escandalosa, tão escandalosa que não pode ser explicada como um simples engano. Alguém está querendo enganar a opinião pública. Sem entrar no mérito da questão, já que não entende nada de petróleo, este colunista lembra que Sérgio Gabrielli é político, hoje secretário de Estado na Bahia, e foi um dos aspirantes petistas ao Governo baiano (o escolhido acabou sendo outro secretário, Rui Costa). Graça Foster não é política, mas funcionária de carreira da Petrobras.

Relembrando

A Refinaria de Pasadena foi comprada pela Astra Oil, belga, em 2005, por US$ 42,5 milhões. Em 2006, a Petrobras comprou metade da refinaria, pagando à Astra US$ 326 milhões (segundo Gabrielli, presidente da empresa na época) ou US$ 360 milhões, "pelo menos" (segundo Graça Foster, presidente da empresa, hoje). O valor inclui metade do estoque de petróleo de Pasadena. Em 2012, a Petrobras comprou a outra metade da refinaria, por US$ 820,5 milhões.

Bom negócio, segundo Gabrielli; definitivamente, não foi bom negócio, segundo Graça.

Tax Day: sortudos americanos; brasileiros precisam esperar mais um mes, ou mais...

Hoje é Tax Day, aqui nos Estados Unidos, ou seja, o dia em que os americanos se livram da obrigação (nominal, ou simbólica, claro) de pagar mais impostos ao governo. Eles pagaram durante 4 meses e meio, e agora começam a trabalhar para si mesmos.
Infelizmente, os brasileiros precisarão trabalhar durante mais um mês, ou mais, para se livrar do ogro famélico.
Nosso tax day, a cada ano se afasta mais para o meio do ano. Atualmente, deve andar na segunda quinzena de maio, mas aposto como estará mais próximo do final do que do meio...
Mas, o think tank Americans for Limited Government continua a ter preocupação com essa questão:


Celebrate tax day by repealing income tax amendment
Last November, U.S. Rep. Jim Bridenstine introduced legislation to repeal the Sixteenth Amendment — which he hopes to replace in part with some form of consumption-based tax.

No nosso caso, não temos quem nos defenda, estamos sozinhos em face desse órgão fascista por excelência que se chama Receita Federal.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The Case Against Higher Taxes

Because it’s tax day, because he mentions me and because I’m easily provoked, below the quote you’ll find three rejoinders to Jonathan Cohn’s admirably forthright argument that American society would be much better off if most of us were writing larger considerably larger checks to Uncle Sam:
Maybe you don’t like tax day … [because] it reminds you of how high taxes are—and you think that, because of those high taxes, the economy grows more slowly. That would mean fewer jobs and less pay for you—and the country as a whole. It’s not a crazy argument … But the evidence for this point of view turns out to be thinner than you’ve probably heard. Relative to other countries, tax rates in the U.S. are relatively low, even when you throw in local and state taxes and add them to federal levies. Overall, according to the Tax Policy Center and Center on Budget and Policy Priorities … taxes in the U.S. are among the lowest in the developed world. The average for countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an organization of rich countries, is higher. And in countries like Sweden, Norway, and the Netherlands countries, the average is much higher. In those nations, taxes account for more than half of total national income.
That level may sound scary but, as many of us have written before, you could make a good case that the people of Scandinavia and Northern Europe know what they are doing. They are far more secure, thanks not only to national health insurance but also to generous provision of child care and unemployment benefits. And despite the high tax burden, their economies have historically been strong—in part, because the combination of investment and a secure safety net makes people more comfortable with a dynamic, ever-changing economy. The wonks used to call this economic model “flexicurity.”
As conservatives like New York Times columnist Ross Douthat note, you can’t simply import that model to the U.S. wholesale. But the Scandinavian experience is one reason that many economists and policy experts think there’s room for U.S. taxes to rise ….
1) It’s true that the U.S. has a lower tax burden than most developed countries. It’s also the case that the U.S. is much, much richer than most developed countries, in ways that a casual trip to Paris or London or Stockholm can sometimes obscureThe I.M.F.’s numbers have our purchasing-power-adjusted per capita G.D.P. at $53,101, which is slightly lower than oil-rich Norway (and Luxembourg) but more than $10,000 higher than Sweden and more than $15,000 higher than Denmark; most of the rich European economies are clumped together between the mid-thirties (where you’ll find the French) and the low forties (where you’ll find the Germans). Now: This wealth gap doesn’t necessarily prove anything about the link between low taxes and growth, since the U.S. has basically always been richer and (as Cohn notes) many of the social democracies have grown at a very respectable rate, in per capita terms, over the last few generations. But if you flashed back to the 1970s, you would find a number of very smart people who expected northern Europe (and Japan) to achieve more than respectable growth, and do more than just keep up with U.S. growth: They expected, forplausible theoretical reasons, that we would see continued convergencebetween the American economy and its developed-world competitors. And that, to put it mildly, did not happen; instead, post-Reagan, the social democracies actually slipped back a bit. So without claiming anything dispositive, I would be much more cautious than Cohn about the claim that growth and tax rates are unrelated, and much, much more hesitant about treating major tax increases as basically a free lunch.
2) And speaking of that free lunch … it’s also quite possible that the European economic story would look rather different, and rather less impressive, if American political economy had always looked more Swedish or French, and hadn’t pursued growth and innovation at quite the same frantic, Anglo-Saxon pace. This is, again, a highly contentious topic, but there’s a certain plausibility to the idea that (in the language of Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson) the developed world’s different tax-and-transfer models are actually complementary “flavors,” and that in a world where rich economies all converged on a single “cuddly” model of capitalism everyone — poor Scandinavians as well as rich Americans — would, on a long time horizon, eventually end up worse off. (Here it’s also worth pointing that if these complementarities and spillover effects do exist, the sheer size of the U.S. economy means that “Europeanizing” our tax-and-transfer model would represent a much more high-stakes roll of the global-economic dice than the kind of “bringing a lone outlier closer to the norm” scenario that country-by-country comparisons sometimes evoke.)
3) Then on what you might call the question of implementation, Cohn concedes the very general point that we can’t simply impose Swedish structures on the United States and call it a day, but he doesn’t address the more specific problem suggested by that concession: Namely, that a lot of liberal proposals essentially ask us to assume that American government — the quasi-imperial government of a vast, diverse, immigrant-heavy continent of three hundred million people — can somehow, in some future dispensation, approach the efficiency of welfare states administered on a much smaller scale and for a much more homogenous population. Which is to say, they wave away one of the central problem with existing public outlays in the U.S., which in other contexts they’re happy to highlight — the absence, in core areas like health care and education, of a clear link between increased spending and better outcomes. Or else they acknowledge the link, but assert that the best way to reform our kludgeocracy is to pursue greater efficiency in program design while simultaneously pouring more money into the system overall — using a heaping-full of sugar to make the medicine go down, if you will. (This was the basic theory of Obamacare, and also of more bipartisan reforms like No Child Left Behind.) It isn’t a crazy theory, but I think it’s reasonable to worry that in a system as inefficient and cross-pressured as ours, the sugar simply offsets or counteracts the medicine’s effects. And that possibility makes a strong case for holding the tax burden constant while seeking de-kludge-ification, rather than pre-emptively handing more money to bureaucracies and programs that aren’t exactly being managed with Nordic efficiency, and aren’t showing the most impressive of results.
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To the foregoing I’d add one further, non-rebutting point: Namely, that regardless of whether one prefers Scandinavian-style social democracy to a lower-tax, more laissez-faire-ish mixed economy on moral grounds, the casefor higher taxes gets stronger to the extent that the U.S. model doesn’t seem to be working on its own terms. By this I mean that all systems involve trade-offs, and our model is no different: American-style capitalism promises higher living standards overall in exchange for higher individual risks; faster growth rates in exchange for greater inequality; lower unemployment rates in exchange for fewer workplace protections; more liberty for innovators and entrepreneurs in exchange for somewhat less solidarity-as-redistribution. But if this promise isn’t being fulfilled, as has been the case in the last decade — if only the rich are seeing income gains, if the pace of growth and innovation are slowing even as inequality gets wider, if workforce participation is actuallydropping below the European norm — then it’s inevitable that the model itself will start to bleed support. So at least part of the left-right divide at the moment (visible in the Picketty discussion, the guaranteed-income vogue, and the like) is over whether we should accept this breakdown, this failure of the American promise, as a permanent feature of our political economy — in which case the argument for high taxes does look stronger, because there’s less to lose — or whether we should still be making policy on the assumption that while the 2000s may have been a lost decade for the American dream, a revival of our model’s advantages is still a real, worth-desiring possibility.