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On November 15-16, world leaders gathered in Brisbane, Australia for the ninth G-20 summit. Leaders aimed to increase world GDP and chart a pathway to sustainable, inclusive growth and resilience through both short and medium-term actions. In this report, experts from Brookings and around the world address interrelated debates about growth, convergence and income distribution, three key elements that are likely to shape policy debates beyond the Brisbane summit.
Download the full Think Tank 20 report, or access individual chapters at the links below:
Kemal Derviş and Homi Kharas
With world leaders gathering for the G-20 summit in Brisbane, three big debates will impact their ability to plot the right course to achieving inclusive, sustainable growth.
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Is Africa Growth at a Historical Crossroads to Convergence?
Amadou Sy
Impressive growth among sub-Saharan African countries since the early 1990s has led to an unprecedented optimism about the continent’s economic prospects. Africa now finds itself at a historical crossroads, which could lead to convergence with emerging markets, and ultimately with advanced economies.
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa: Perspectives on Divergence and Convergence
Haroon Bhorat and Alan Hirsch
South Africa is on a highly unequal, slow growth economic development path which, if not effectively addressed, will perpetuate the current course of long-run economic divergence.
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Economic Growth in Asia: Performance and Prospects
Montek Ahluwalia
The share of Asian EMDEs in global GDP could reach 40 percent by 2030, substantially increasing the region's role in the global economy and requiring significant structural changes in the formal institutions of global governance.
AUSTRALIA
Australia, Emerging Asia and Global Cooperation
Peter Drysdale
Now that the immediate threat of the global financial crisis has receded, Asia’s ambitions in the global community remain centered on economic and social transformation through sustainable development. On both fronts, the G-20 has a big and ongoing task and Asian G-20 members have a central role and interest.
CHINA
A New Normal, but with Robust Growth: China’s Growth Prospects in the Next 10 Years
Yang Yao
China's economy is rebalancing, helping it to improve its income distribution. But while robust growth in China can compensate for some of the losses left by poor-performing advanced economies, the world may have to wait until China enjoys much higher per-capita income to expect the country to become a major consumer goods importer.
INDIA
Secular Stagnation: Can India Buck the Trend?
Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur
With the right policy measures, India can buck the trend towards growth slowdowns now appearing in advanced and developing countries.
INDONESIA
Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: A View from Indonesia
Maria Monica Wihardja
Indonesia faces specific challenges in maintaining high growth and avoiding the middle-income trap, but it can learn from the often painful structural reforms undertaken in other emerging economies.
JAPAN
Defining Exit from Deflation
Yoshio Okubo
Weaknesses in the global economy and uncertain prospects for the future have prompted a new debate on the possibility of secular stagnation or prolonged deflation in advanced economies, often citing Japan as an example. This note focuses on the recent economic developments in Japan and considers potential pitfalls that policymakers in advanced economies may face in the post-crisis environment.
KOREA
From Rapid, Shared Growth to Slow, Unshared Growth?
Wonhyuk Lim
Korea is a prime example of a country that was able to achieve rapid, shared growth, but is now facing the challenge of what appears to be slow, unshared growth. It provides a number of lessons for maturing economies that are going through a midlife crisis of their own.
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How Can Europe Avoid Secular Stagnation?
Guntram Wolff
Three central policy measures can help deal with stagnation in the eurozone.
FRANCE
Growth, Convergence and Social Conditions: Where is Europe Headed?
Jacques Mistral
The eurozone, having successfully emerged from the acute phase of its debt crisis, is again entering unchartered waters. There is no region in the world economy where the three debates about growth, convergence and social conditions are more closely linked. This paper explores this new horizon and finds reason for hope.
GERMANY
Quantitative Easing and Deflation in a Creditor Economy
Daniel Gros
Northern European excess savings constitute a serious issue for a global economy still short of demand. This issue should be on the agenda of the G-20, not just Europe’s, but it is unlikely that it will be resolved any time soon.
ITALY
Sluggish Growth in the Eurozone: The Long Journey Ahead
Paolo Guerrieri
To exit from the crisis, the eurozone needs new policies and more integration, but national interests still trump collective interests. A deepening of the eurozone crisis, if not properly addressed, could turn into a dramatic global crisis.
RUSSIA
Russia: Prospects for Growth and Convergence
Sergey Drobyshevsky
Changes in commodity prices, limits to potential growth and consumer demand issues all point to a low probability of fast and stable growth in the medium term, but the Russian economy is far from doomed.
UNITED KINGDOM
Convergence Determines Governance — Within and Without
Danny Quah
As economists debate the dynamics of growth and convergence to understand if the world's poor are catching up to the rich, historians of foreign policy and international relations scholars are asking what the implications for global power shifts, and for the legitimacy of different forms of world leadership, will be.
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Latin America’s Decade of Development-less Growth
Ernesto Talvi
Latin America's decade of uninterrupted high growth rates put an end to a quarter of a century of relative decline in income per capita levels vis-à-vis advanced economies. But with the extremely favorable external conditions already behind us, the region is expected to grow at mediocre rates of around 2 percent in per capita terms for the foreseeable future, making the dream of convergence and development unlikely to be realized any time soon.
ARGENTINA
Argentina: A Case of “Reverse Convergence”
Miguel Kiguel
Argentina again finds itself in a period of high volatility and recession, but there may be more cause for optimism this time around than in previous crises.
BRAZIL
Demography, Technology, and All Other Things Considered
Claudio Frischtak
Demographic and technological changes will have significant implications for growth globally, and could make for a steeper ascent for Brazil and other emerging and developing economies.
MEXICO
The Challenges to Achieving Sustainable Growth in Latin America
Guillermo Ortiz
To enable the region to escape from the “middle-income trap,” Latin America needs to maintain the macroeconomic and financial stability achieved over the decade and press ahead on an important structural reform agenda.
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Growth and Convergence in the Arab Region
Hafez Ghanem
More than three years after the revolutions the euphoria with which of the 2010-11 revolutions were greeted, the Arab transition to democracy appears to be sinking in the desert’s quicksand, and economies of the five so-called Arab countries in transition are faring little better. But faster growth and more rapid convergence to the OECD and the emerging economies can be achieved through more investment in inclusive institutions, and physical and human capital.
SAUDI ARABIA
Economic Convergence in Saudi Arabia
Ali Al-Sadiq
Despite rapid economic growth over the last few decades, Saudi real incomes per capita have not converged to those of advanced economies. Failure to diversify production from the capital-intensive hydrocarbon sector to employment-generating non-oil sectors, coupled with high population growth and a delay in removing restrictions on foreign investment, has exacerbated income disparities. An economic transformation and diversification strategy that targets employment-generating economic activities will be key to achieving convergence with advanced economies.
TURKEY
The Growth Debate Redux
Galip Kemal Ozhan
Turkey may be her own special case in many respects, but the country’s progress has to take place in an increasingly interconnected global economy.
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Secular Stagnation is Not Destiny: Faster Growth is Achievable with Better Policy
Jean Boivin and Tiff Macklem
The stakes for the G-20 are incredibly high. Faster growth is within reach, but it will require countries to take action individually and collectively. Secular stagnation is not destiny; but avoiding it will take determination and resolve.
UNITED STATES
US Economic Growth is Over: The Short Run Meets the Long Run
Robert Gordon
The "techno-optimists" are wrong about the future U.S. economic growth.
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Related Book:
The G-20 Summit at Five: Time for Strategic LeadershipKemal Derviş
Brookings Institution Press, 2014
Read Past Think Tank 20 Reports:
The G-20 and Central Banks in the New World of Unconventional Monetary Policy
August 2013
New Challenges for the Global Economy, New Uncertainties for the G-20
June 2012
Beyond Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Discussions in the G-20
November 2011
Macroeconomic Policy Interdependence and the G-20
April 2011
Global Perspectives on the Seoul G-20 Summit
November 2010
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