Em 2004, o National Intelligence Council do governo dos EUA publicava este relatório:
National Intelligence Council, part of the project Mapping the Global Future: 2020 Project, Washington: Government Printing Office, 2004; link: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html.
Entre suas previsões figurava esta aqui, que na altura de 2010, parecia ser uma previsão errada. Dez anos depois, a "profecia" se revelou acertada (copio de um trabalho meu de 2008: “Brazil and Global Governance”, Brasília, 30 janeiro 2008, 17 p.):
Prospective scenarios drawn up by National Intelligence Council, an entity affiliated to CIA, show a less optimistic trend both for Brazil and for Latin America. According to the Project 2020 study:
“Brazil will likely have failed to deliver on its promised leadership in South America, due as much to the scepticism of its neighbours as to its frequently overwhelming emphasis on its own interests. It will, nevertheless, continue to be the dominant voice on the continent and a key market for its Mercosur partners. Brazil will still not have won a permanent seat on the Security Council, but it will continue to consider itself a global player. Although Brazil’s economic improvements are not likely to be spectacular, the size of its economy, along with its lively democracy, will continue to have a stabilizing effect on the entire region. Trade arrangements with Europe, the USA, and large developing economies, mainly China and India, will help to keep its exports growing steadily enough to offset its overall lack of economic dynamism. Even after twenty years, efforts to pass vital reforms to Brazilian institutions will still be underway. Though the situation is bound to improve somewhat, the so-called ‘Brazil cost’, itself a governance issue, will continue to thwart efforts to modernize the economy thoroughly. Brazil’s complex and burdensome taxation system, fiscal wars between its states, and the limits of its internal transportation infrastructure, will persist. Taking advantage of Asia’s hunger and improved ties with Europe, Brazil will endeavour to offset its structural limitations through its robust agribusiness sector. Brazil’s sizeable debt and vulnerability to inflation will also remain matters of concern.”
Parece que, com exceção do problema da inflação e de uma reforma da Previdência meia-boca, apenas postergando a falência total, nenhuma das outras reformas preconizadas foi feita.
O Brasil parece a França, apenas que com uma renda per capita cinco vezes menor...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
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