An attack on the Baltic states is entirely plausible, and here’s why. There are at least three reasons.
First and foremost: russia risks nothing. No matter how events unfold with the occupation of the Baltic countries, things will not get worse for russia. Sanctions are already in place. Europe no longer buys its oil or gas. Weapons are being supplied to Ukraine.
From a purely military perspective, russia also risks nothing. It has nuclear weapons, so if it wins and occupies the Baltics, or even parts of them, no one will be able to push it out.
And if it loses, it will not lose its own territory. It will simply retreat to its borders, and NATO will not invade russian territory because of those same nuclear weapons.
So why not try?
Second reason: the goals of the war. The objectives of russia go far beyond the occupation of the Baltics. Above all, russia is interested in weakening or dismantling NATO and the EU. From this perspective, any territorial gain in the Baltics would count as a victory.
Even if russia does not capture Vilnius or Tallinn, but only a few border villages, that would still be a win, because it would demonstrate NATO’s inability to defend its members.
So again, why not try?
Third reason: russia has sufficient forces and resources in the potential conflict zone to carry out military objectives and achieve an acceptable outcome.
In the Leningrad Military District, there is a combat-ready army of around 70,000 troops, which can easily be reinforced with reserves from the Ukrainian front. This army is mechanized, with around 700 tanks and a large amount of armored equipment.
Separately, I would highlight the drone component, which has no real equivalent in NATO and could significantly shift the balance of power in the event of an invasion.
If the forces are sufficient, then why not try?
Thus, as of now, we are facing the following situation: russia has enough forces and resources to achieve its goals in the Baltics, and it does not face a bad scenario under any development of events.
The situation is very similar to the one before the invasion of Ukraine, especially considering the law that allows putin to “protect russians abroad,” which was quickly introduced in the State Duma.
The Baltic states have helped us more than anyone else, so I sincerely hope our friends will not face war.
But to preserve peace, one must prepare for a major war. It is very good that our Baltic friends have learned from Ukraine’s mistakes and have built defensive lines and fortifications to repel an invasion. I very much hope that russia will break its teeth on the Baltics, just as it did on Ukraine.
Source: translated and adopted from Serhii Marchenko
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