Why Russia “Unable To Defeat Ukraine”: Rulers, Laws, Money and Men - Barry Gander (Medium)

 Por que a Russia vai perder?

Barry Gander

Mar 6, 2023

https://barry-gander.medium.com/why-russia-unable-to-defeat-ukraine-rulers-laws-money-and-men-df7f5014d207

Why Russia “Unable To Defeat Ukraine”: Rulers, Laws, Money and Men

A retired colonel in Russia’s military intelligence organization says that the Russian army is “unable to defeat Ukraine.” Igor Girkin told an audience in St. Petersburg how he had predicted in May 2022 that Russia had already “failed” in what it calls a “special military operation” because there was no mobilization under way. Girkin believes that Russian armed forces cannot manage with the personnel they have. Putin is no longer leading the war effort, which Girkin calls “a complete failure.”

Girkin led the government of the separatist Donetsk Region, and resigned in 2014 when a missile from his command downed a civilian Malaysian aircraft.

Girkin denies having responsibility for the action; transcripts at the time show that he was under the impression that the plane was a Ukrainian Air Force jet.

His accusations of incompetence have been echoed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Putin’s private mercenary army Wagner Group. Prigozhin has accused Army officials of “treason” and attempting to “destroy” his army. He criticized the lack of ammunition provided to Wagner, complaining “I have no options. I’m going to the end, I have people dying in droves because some strange people made a decision whether they’ll live or not.” Wagner, made up of convict soldiers, has suffered more than 30,000 casualties in Ukraine.

These accusations are not being heard by the Russian people.

In the time between the invasion of Ukraine in February and the end of the year Russia has blocked access to the Internet for its 113-million users at a cost to the country of $21.6-billion.

It is the single most expensive Internet blockage of the year.

The actions consist of throttling and then blocking access to social media sites and news outlets.

Iran came in second, then Kazakhstan and then Myanmar.

Aside from the cost, the glaring statement that seems to come from this action is: if you are in the right with a just cause, why are you blocking the Internet?

I don’t doubt that Russian Internet users are aware of the outages and the reasons, so who does Putin think he’s fooling? The size of the lies he tells is just devastating if he has to block everyone else from hearing the world.

His people would heat that Russia has now lost 200,000 soldiers and more than 1,800 officers killed and wounded, according to the Supreme Commander of the Joint NATO Forces in Europe and Commander of the U.S. Armed Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli.

Russia has also lost more than 2,000 battle tanks. On average, the Russian army fires off more than 23,000 artillery rounds per day. Cavoli pointed out that the lesson of the Cold War is that precision matters. The production capacity of defense industries is also important. According to the commander, the one who can produce ammunition the fastest wins the war.

And here, Russia has a cash problem of immense proportion.

Putin does not have the resources for a protracted war, according to Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska. Speaking at the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum he said “Everything is plundered, betrayed, sold”.

And then the money runs out.

Deripaska directly stated that there would be no money in Russia “next year”. Funds are now running low and “that’s why they’ve already begun to shake us down,” said Deripaska, founder of United Co, Rusal International PJSC, the biggest aluminum producer outside China.

He was referring to the new Russian government practice of milking large companies; last year ended with a record fiscal deficit and the budget still deep in the red to start 2023.

He added that Putin’s disinformation campaign is founded on the fable that Russia can keep this war going indefinitely. That is totally wrong.

The military reversals are having an effect on the Russian ground troops, who are often refusing to attack due to heavy losses. A Russian battalion in the 20th division of the 255th regiment of the 1st motorized rifle battalion of the 2nd motorized rifle company said in a video “We want them to stop sending us to senseless assaults as expendable material. We are ordinary people from the citizenry.” The battalion was serving in the Kherson/Donetsk region. They added: “For example, on February 22, 2023, we were sent to the slaughter, as a matter of fact. We stormed a village with well-fortified positions of the Armed Forces. Before the assault, the command promised us that there would be artillery training, there would be support. But this did not happen. We were simply sent to storm under enemy fire artillery, where we suffered losses already on the approaches.”

This is not an aberration; this is a habit of Russian command.

Speaking of the battle, Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Russia has not yet taken control of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, and there has been no mass withdrawal of Ukraine’s troops. Though the situation is perilous, Cherevatyi said “The fighting in Bakhmut is more on the outskirts, with the city controlled by Ukrainian defense forces: the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Border Guard and the National Guard. There is also no mass withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.”

Reports of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops may have originated in the regular practice of rotating positions in Bakhmut in controlled, planned phases, he said.

Thus far, Cherevatyi said there have been hostilities surrounding Bakhmut, in the villages of Vasiukivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka to the north of the city, and in the villages of Ivanivske and Bohdanivka to the west. “There were 21 enemy attacks with the use of various artillery systems and MLRS near Bakhmut alone, and 9 combat engagements. 131 attacks and 38 combat engagements took place on this front in total.” Over 150 Russian soldiers were killed and 239 were wounded, and 3 were taken prisoner.

Farther from the front line a number of blasts were heard in the area of Russia’s air base in Gvardiyske in occupied Crimea. According to eyewitness reports, explosions rocked the area of the airbase in Simferopol district. Plumes of black smoke are coming up from the site, reports say. In Bakhchisarai, an explosion was reported in the area of a Russian military base. Blasts were also heard in Yalta, Gurzuf, and other settlements on the southern coast of the peninsula.

The people responsible for the deaths of so many soldiers and civilians will be punished. The wheels of justice have started to grind fine for Russian war criminals. The International Centre for the Investigation of Crimes of Aggression of the Russian Federation will begin its work in The Hague in the summer. The creation of this centre was supported by Eurojust, the International Criminal Court in partnership with Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia and Romania. The coalition for the creation of a special tribunal for Russia already includes 29 states.

Ukrainian courts will soon begin considering criminal proceedings on war crimes of the Russian Federation concerning the genocide of the Ukrainian People en masse, Vsevolod Kniazev, Chairman of the Supreme Court said. The Ukrainian court is in fact already considering one case of genocide.

Additional support is continuously being announced for Ukraine. Britain has doubled the number of Challenger 2 tanks that will be provided, from 14 to 28. Each tank costs $5-million, for a total of $140-million. Allied aid for Ukraine has been deep and long: Canada alone has trained 35,000 Ukrainian troops since 2015, has given $1-billion in aid, and has shipped 35,000 tons of suppliers since the war began.

A rumour is circulating that hints at a further problem for Putin. His fanatical ally Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Chechnyan contingent of Putin’s invasion force, may have terminal bladder cancer. He has been a despotic, pro-Kremlin leader of the Chechen Republic since 2007. The chief bladder cancer specialist of the United Arab Emirates, Dr. Yasin Ibrahim El-Shahat, has arrived in Grozny to treat him. “According to Akhmed Zakayev (the representative of the Ichkerian Cabinet in exile), Kadyrov is ill and has already become a drug addict” according to a local journalist. Waves of Russian nationals came to Dubai to reside and invest their money into property, where it would be safeguarded from Western sanctions.

While the rich plan their escape, the ordinary Russian soldiers continue to die. Cannon fodder is being minced at record speed. Shells, rockets, equipment are being eaten up much faster than they can be produced. The money is running out. The soldiers are getting fed up. The economy is deflating. The Internet is silenced.

I’ve been to the UAE. Nice place. These days, I suppose I would run into many Russians and Belarusians; I would congratulate them on their choice of venue.

In their first-class hotel accommodations they can turn on the Internet and watch the magic show where Russia disappears.

Spoiler alert: it was an inside job.

Articles on Russia or the Ukraine by Barry Gander:

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Russian Support For War Seems To Be Dropping

Drone Strikes Inside Russia Raise New Questions About Competence

Russia Wants to “Push Back” The Borders of Poland

As The Hot War Expands, It Cools

The Russia-China Hub A Year Later

Inside The Mind of Vladimir Putin — Why ‘Hitler 2.0’ Has To Be Ended

They Want To Destroy Russia: Putin’s Mirror World v.s. ‘Amtrack Joe’ Biden in Kyiv

20 Million Russian Casualties: The Incredible Price Needed To Conquer Ukraine

97% of Countries Support Ukraine; 3% (Plus Musk) Support Russia

It’s A REALLLLY Bad War When The ACCOUNTANT Dies!

Musk Says Ukraine (Not Russia) Could Start WW3 — Seriously!

Wagner Gives Death, Not Freedom, To Russian Criminals

Europe’s Largest Reactor Has 2.5 Foot Depth of Water Before Nuclear Nightmare

Republican “Leaders” Support Putin As The Russian Offensive Gets Underway

Musk’s Starlink Continues To Be A Lever Against Ukraine

How Long Can Russia Afford Its War?

Post-War Russia Will Look Radically Different

Putin’s Invasion Accelerates War’s “Third Revolution”: AI

Can Russia Afford The War?

Putin’s Dark Secret: You Need Invasions To Stay Ahead of the Mob

The “Tanks” Debate Shows How Small Russia’s Circle of Friends Has Become

The Game That Cannot End In A Draw

The Republican Struggle Over Ukraine

When Does Russia End The War? What Is The ‘Gorbachev Moment’?

“Tanks For The Memories”

When Conspiracies Collide: The Bizarre Conflict Within QANON RUSSIA

Russia Feels The Pain of The Soledar Attack

Tanks Needed To Counter New Russian Mobilization; Beavers Take on Belarus

The Strange Slaughter-House Of The Russian Mind

Russians Lurking In Ukrainian Uniforms Strike From Within

Secrecy Breeds Incompetence: The Story of Russian Failure and Ukrainian Success

UPDATE — UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS…Soledar Conflict Reveals Battles Between Russia’s Armies and Generals

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Russia Is Following Malthus’ Path Into Oblivion

Revisited For 1st Anniversary: The REAL Reason Russia is Losing

Russian Governor Tells Occupants In War’s Heartland: ‘Surrender If Ukrainians Break Through’

2023: Autocracies Crumble In Russia, China and Iran

Russia Stands Alone — And Loses Its Empire

The Remote-Control Killers Behind Putin’s Hail-Mary Missiles

Russians Can Now Surrender To A Robot (Drone)

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Winning A War Against A Mafia State: Russia’s Government By Gangs

More Russian Withdrawal Foreshadows Disintegration

From Starvation To Surplus: Ukraine’s Incredible Recovery From Russian Genocide

Russia Tosses Its Soldiers Into A Meat-Grinder

Russian Analysis: Five Million Soldiers Needed

Seizing Crimea: Russians Tire As The War Comes Full Circle

Workers In Russia’s Most Exposed Sector Flee A Doomsday War

The Victim’s Bodies Fell From The Sky Over The Sunflowers Of The Ukraine

Ukrainian Forces Cross Dnieper!? — Epic Bad Day for Putin.

Russia’s Plunge Into Agricultural and Industrial Disaster

Ukrainian Shock-Waves Jar Loose Russian Border States

Russian Collaborator Dies As Ukrainian Forces Close In, EU Talks Begin

November 8th and the Future of America, Ukraine, Russia and China

When People Are Pieces: Putin Keeps Dropping Pawns

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Putin Makes Russia Irrelevant in Grain as Well as Oil

Putin: It’s All YOUR Fault

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Winter is Coming: What Cold Will Do to Putin’s Attacks

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Russian Conscripts Shoot Commander and Surrender

Why Putin Will Not Use A Nuke

Killer in the Kremlin

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Rat-Boy Putin is Four Million Men Short

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Putin’s Most Incompetent Murder (So Far)

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Paths to Peace In Ukraine

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Russia’s Frenzied Struggle Against The Rising Tide of Global Freedom

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Centro de Política Tributária da OCDE elogia proposta de reforma tributária do Brasil - Estevão Taiar (Valor)

O que talvez a Diretora da OCDE não saiba é que o Brasil foi um dos primeiros países do mundo, depois da então Comunidade Econômica Europeia, a adotar o sistema tributário do IVA, em meados dos anos 1960, por reformas promovidas pelo então ministro do Planejamento Roberto Campos, o ICM, que depois foi sendo deformado nos anos seguintes, em especial pela Constituição de 1988, até virar o "manicômio tributário" de que fala o vice-presidente Geraldo Alckmin.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 Centro de Política Tributária da OCDE elogia proposta de reforma tributária do Brasil

Por Estevão Taiar, Valor — Brasília

06/03/2023 11h54  Atualizado há uma hora

A diretora do Centro de Política Tributária da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE), Grace Perez Navarro, elogiou nesta segunda-feira (06) a proposta de reforma tributária do governo federal, baseada no Imposto sobre Valor Agregado (IVA).

A afirmação foi feita por Navarro a jornalistas antes de ela participar de reunião com o ministro da Fazenda, Fernando Haddad, na sede da pasta. Segundo ela, a proposta está “em linha” com as diretrizes da OCDE. A reforma “é um passo muito positivo”, disse.

Um ponto que Navarro abordaria com Haddad na reunião seriam as mudanças nos preços de transferência, como é chamada a tributação que incide sobre transferências realizadas por um mesmo grupo empresarial entre países diferentes.

“Estamos trabalhando com o Brasil nisso há cinco anos, então estamos muito ansiosos para ver [as mudanças] completamente implantadas”, afirmou.

Ela também defendeu que o Brasil adote o imposto global mínimo ligado à digitalização da economia. “Isso vai garantir que, não importa qual o planejamento tributário das multinacionais, o Brasil tenha um imposto mínimo efetivo de 15%”, afirmou.
Por fim, destacou a importância de o Brasil adotar medidas, de precificação ou não, que ajudem a diminuir as emissões de carbono. Navarro afirmou que o combate às mudanças climáticas é uma das prioridades do governo do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

A acessão do Brasil à OCDE era um dos principais pontos da agenda do ex-ministro da Economia, Paulo Guedes, durante o governo Bolsonaro. A organização é uma espécie de clube global de boas práticas de políticas públicas.

Em janeiro, Lula disse que “o Brasil tem interesse em participar da OCDE”, mas também destacou que gostaria de “saber qual será o papel” do país na organização.

 “[O Brasil] não pode participar como se fosse um país menor, como se fosse um país observador”, disse. “Estamos dispostos a discutir outra vez e saber quais são as condições da entrada do Brasil na OCDE.”

Haddad, por sua vez, já afirmou que a “aproximação” com a organização estava “acontecendo naturalmente” e que seria necessário “ver com o Itamaraty e o presidente da República os próximos passos”.

“Temos de desenhar a política que vai ser feita para se alinhar às determinações do presidente da República”, disse. 

https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2023/03/06/centro-de-poltica-tributria-da-ocde-elogia-proposta-de-reforma-tributria-do-brasil.ghtml

A permanência do Stalinismo na Rússia de hoje — CDS

 International diplomatic aspects

On the 5th of March 1953, the brutal Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin died. Almost 27 million of the Soviet subjects were killed or put to death in GULAGs and by Holodomors-genocides. Only the Holodomor genocide of 1932-33 caused the death of 4 to 6 million innocent Ukrainians. Some 26.6 million were killed during the Second World War. Though the Nazis and their allies killed a lot of military personnel and soldiers, the way how the Soviet rulers treated their population should be noted. "Countrywomen-will-give-birth", a phrase coined by Marshall Georgiy Zhukov, perfectly describes the Russian attitude towards human life and explains abnormal casualties during the Second World War. It's still true for the Russian war in Ukraine 2014-2023.

But in modern-day Russia, we see Stalinism on the march. Firstly, almost two-thirds of Russians (56%) believe that Stalin was a great leader, while only 14% thought he was not, and a third (27%) partially agree with the two previous groups, according to a Levada Centre poll of 2021. Two- thirds feel admiration, respect, or sympathy toward Stalin, while almost a third (28%) are indifferent, and 11% feel fear, irritation, or hate. Stalin is ahead of Vladimir Lenin, another bloody tyrant, and even Alexander Pushkin, the beloved Russian poet in the ranking of the greatest people of "any" nation "ever." At least 60 monuments, bas-reliefs, and busts of Stalin were installed on Vladimir Putin's watch (since 2000). Russians erected at least five statues on the illegally occupied territories of Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea).

According to CNN, two Ukrainian pilots are now in Arizona for a test of what time is required for pilots with their skills to begin operating F-16s. During the US House Armed Services Committee hearing last week, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said that the Defense Department believes it would take eighteen to twenty months to prepare pilots and technical personnel. However, he stated that the Administration currently doesn't prioritize providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets for various reasons, including financial restraints.

"My view, it is necessary that Putin understands that he will not succeed with this invasion and his imperialistic aggression — that he has to withdraw troops. This is the basis for talks," Olaf Scholz told Fareed Zakaria of CNN. "If you look at the proposal of the Ukrainians, it is easy to understand that they are ready for peace." Answering whether Ukraine should concede Crimea for a "deal," the German Chancellor replied, "we will not take decisions instead of them. We support them." Olaf Scholz indicated to "organize a certain way of security guarantees for the country, in times of peace, to come, but we are not there yet."

 ________________________________

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua 

=============

Já que estamos falando dos 70 anos da morte do Stalin, que tal ver um filme que retrata o declínio do socialismo no Leste Europeu em seus últimos anos de vida?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN-utSohkww

A Confissão (L'aveau) (1970) - Filme Completo.

O livro tem edição brasileira:

Sinopse

Artur London, vice-ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros da Checoslováquia a partir de 1949,foi preso em Janeiro de 1951 juntamente com o ministro Clementis, e julgado no processo do chamado «Centro de Conspiração contra o Estado dirigido por Slansky».

Condenado a trabalhos forçados perpétuos, viria a ser reabilitado em 1956.

Artur London, uma vítima paradigmática do estalinismo, descreve em A Confissão o impiedoso mecanismo que triturou muitos dos melhores militantes do movimento revolucionário na engrenagem da autoacusação.

Estamos perante um documento histórico que denuncia um sistema e retrata uma época que não podem nem devem esquecer-se, e um documento profundamente humano onde palpita a tragédia de um homem e de uma família presos nas malhas de ferro de um processo kafkiano que foi realidade.

A Confissão deu origem ao célebre filme homónimo de Costa-Gavras, com Yves Montand e Simone Signoret.

“ A film is a weapon on time delay” — an interview with “Navalny” director Daniel Roher” - Signal, GZero newsletter

 “A film is a weapon on time delay” — an interview with “Navalny” director Daniel Roher

   

Vladimir Putin may be busy waging war on Ukraine and threatening NATO with nuclear strikes, but at home in Russia, what scares him most is a man currently languishing in a tiny jail cell.

Opposition leader Alexei Navalny is Russia’s most prominent dissident. In August 2020, someone tried to poison him to death. He was flown abroad to Germany for treatment and then, unfathomably, returned to Russia, where he was promptly arrested and sentenced to a lengthy prison term. 

The Oscar-nominated documentary “Navalny” follows him and his team during those crucial months in Germany, as they uncover details of the assassination plot, pulling strings that reach into the highest levels of the Kremlin. It plays, remarkably, as a thriller, a black comedy, and an intimate family portrait. 

Ahead of the Oscars next Sunday, I sat down with director Daniel Roher to learn more about how “Navalny” got made, the geopolitical power of cinema, and what he hopes Vladimir Putin will do if he ever sees the film. 

You can read the whole interview or watch a video of it here, but just a few highlights: 

On how he convinced a social media master like Navalny that a conventional documentary was worthwhile:

“A YouTube video is made and released and it exists and is gone and forgotten in two or three weeks. But a film can be a weapon that's on a time delay. People will watch this film and think about Navalny and his family not for the next day or week, but for the rest of their lives.”

On whether he felt he might be getting spun by Navalny and his team:

“It wasn't that I was worried about it. I was awareof it every single moment. Here I am making a film about a politician whose great gift is his mastery of the media. And it's actually an element that's woven into the fabric of the film. Who's directing whom?” 

On Navany’s past ties to hardcore nationalists and neo-Nazis:

“I asked him about this and he said, basically, ‘I'm trying to build a broad-based coalition. I'm trying to take the liberals in Moscow and whoever else opposes the regime. If these nationalist guys oppose Putin, then we're on the same team right now. When it comes to figuring out the public policy of how to govern a free Russia, that's a different discussion. And I would never associate with these guys.’ It's basically “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” That's the political calculus he's making. And I can simultaneously understand it and be deeply uncomfortable with it.

On what he hopes Putin would do if he sees the film:

[This one is too good to give away. Just click through to the whole interview here!]

https://gzeromedia.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&id=893cc973db&e=96ffb72608

– Alex Kliment

Sobre as joias contrabandeadas e retidas - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Sobre as joias contrabandeadas e retidas 

(mas quantos presentes mais passaram incólumes em comitivas presidenciais?):

A submissão ao poder, de qualquer cor política, sempre foi um traço forte na cultura da corporação diplomática, tida como uma das de melhor qualidade na burocracia estatal do Brasil. Mas não se pense que outras corporações de Estado, a da Receita Federal por exemplo, sejam imunes à proverbial sujeição do funcionário à “autoridade”.

Certas características “feudais” sobrevivem à margem da legislação republicana: a famosa expressão orwelliana, segundo a qual “todos os animais são iguais, mas alguns são mais iguais do que outros”, se aplica de forma bem mais disseminada do que o imaginado e o esperado em corporações estatais que, obviamente, são formadas por humanos, com todos os seus vícios, paixões e, sobretudo, ambições.

Tudo isso para, finalmente, perguntar o seguinte: o que deu no Itamaraty, para tentar uma “carteirada” manifestamente ilegal, e contrária à legislação, mas feita em caráter institucional, em direção da Receita Federal, para atender a um pedido do já agonizante presidente decrépito e contraventor da lei até a raiz dos cabelos?

Por isso, volto à constatação inicial: foi a cultura da submissão ao poder, qualquer que seja ele, em qualquer tempo.

No final do segundo mandato do agora presidente em terceiro mandato, embaixadores se prestaram submissivamente a atender aos pedidos do presidente que deixava o cargo no sentido de enviar garrafas de vinho de boa qualidade para abastecer a adega de um famoso sítio em Atibaia, que também recebeu muitos “presentes” e que depois tiveram de ser retornados ao acervo presidencial por ordem judicial.

Presentes trocados por ocasião de visitas e viagens de cúpula deveriam ser objeto de rigoroso controle do cerimonial diplomático e dos órgãos de registro dos bens públicos.

Posso apostar como a tal cultura da submissão deforma os procedimentos seguidos nessas ocasiões. 

A falta de transparência em determinadas corporações estatais — a dos militares em primeiro lugar — alimenta uma onda de irregularidades, e de possíveis e prováveis malversações, muito mais ampla do que os poucos casos revelados ocasionalmente pela imprensa. 

Mais um sintoma dos males nefastos do patrimonialismo que caracteriza de modo secular a formação da cultura social luso-brasileira. Foi uma das primeiras deformações culturais da construção da nacionalidade portuguesa, deve ser a última a ser extirpada da psique brasileira.

O Itamaraty não ficou imune a essa enfermidade, como de resto praticamente todas as demais corporações de Estado, mesmo aquelas integradas por mandarins da melhor qualidade intelectual.

Por essa, e por outras razões, sempre me insurgi contra uma obediência cega ao famoso moto da corporação diplomática — esta retirada da cultura militar — que reza que o diplomata deve obedecer aos princípios da “hierarquia e disciplina”. Talvez, mas sem o excesso de zelo que possa incorrer, justamente, na indesejável cultura da submissão ao poder. 

Como diria Lord Acton, numa das frases mais citadas do seu legado intelectual, “o poder corrompe, o poder absoluto corrompe absolutamente”. Resistir disciplinadamente a ações contrárias à lei, independentemente da hierarquia na qual se encontra um membro da corporação, deveria ser a regra sem exceção. Sabemos que nem sempre é assim.

Conclusão: o Itamaraty escorregou feio nessa questão das jóias milionárias do contraventor presidencial. Infelizmente prevaleceu a cultura da submissão. Esperando que ela não subsista na presente administração, assina esta nota um modesto membro da corporação diplomática.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brasília, 5/03/2023

Um "Observador" (militar reformado) critica a política pró-Putin dos governos Bolsonaro e Lula e do próprio Itamaraty

 Plano de paz de Lula para a Ucrânia

Observador
DefesaNet, 04 Março 2023

https://www.defesanet.com.br/destaque/noticia/1048654/notas-estrategicas-br-plano-de-paz-de-lula-para-a-ucrania/

Nas últimas semanas a imprensa brasileira e estrangeira vem comentando sobre o plano de paz proposto pelo presidente brasileiro Lula para a Ucrânia. Sobre o assunto, é necessário salientar que a Ucrânia foi invadida por um país vizinho, uma das duas maiores potências nucleares do mundo. A Ucrânia não está em guerra, ela apenas foi obrigada a recorrer à Força Armada para se defender de uma invasão estrangeira, que busca decapitar seu governo democraticamente eleito, anexar territórios e destruir o país, como nação assim como seu povo.

O mundo não via um país enfrentar uma ameaça existencial desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial. A invasão russa da Ucrânia, uma grande nação europeia, soberana, democrática e pacífica (que entregou todas as suas armas nucleares à Rússia) foi a maior violação da Carta das Nações Unidas em toda sua história, e uma derrota ucraniana seria o fim das relações interestatais tal qual as conhecemos. Ou seja, a Rússia não pode vencer.

A Sistema Internacional moderno nasceu das cinzas da carnificina, do trauma e do aprendizado da Segunda Grande Guerra, e a derrota da Ucrânia seria a destruição desse sistema criado após a catástrofe de 1945.

Corremos o sério risco de uma reviravolta nas relações internacionais, com negociações diplomáticas e comerciais pautadas pela ameaça indiscriminada do uso da força militar, deixando países menores e mais fracos reféns do império da lei do mais forte, e o Brasil não está preparado para isso. Nunca esteve.

A soberania territorial e a inviolabilidade das fronteiras somente será assegurada por aquelas nações que têm poder e força para defendê-las, e novamente, não é o nosso caso.

Infelizmente, desde o governo de Jair Bolsonaro, o Itamaraty e o Governo Brasileiro têm tido uma posição vergonhosa com relação à Ucrânia. Da mesma forma no governo Lula, as ações geram desconfiança sobre as reais intenções.

Basicamente, nossas autoridades políticas e militares vem repetindo o discurso pró-russo veiculado como propaganda na Russia Today, que vão desde a expansão da OTAN a necessidade de acesso a fertilizantes.

A aproximação com Moscou, na contramão do resto do mundo, foi estratégia da  Secretária Especial de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República.

Neste sentido, Esquerda e Direita andam de mãos dadas já que as alas ideológicas do Bolsonarismo e do Lulo-PTismo sempre tiveram uma visão pró-Moscou. A primeira é antiglobalista e a segunda anticapitalista e ideológica. Essa visão geopolítica nada mais é que um olhar míope do que é a Rússia atual, o que ela representa e o quão fraca, decadente e corrupta é.

Se nenhum dos seus vizinhos confia na Rússia, porquê nos confiaríamos? Qual é o “case” de sucesso histórico das nossas relações bilaterais?

Dito isso, cabe ressaltar que, em prejuízo e colocando em risco a própria segurança nacional do Brasil, Vladimir Putin nunca fez uso das suas boas relações com Brasília para nos consultar se podia armar a Venezuela e alterar – ainda hoje – a balança do poder militar na região. Diga-se de passagem com a conivência do governo Lula e do chanceler Celso Amorim.

Não existe posição neutra quando se trata da invasão russa da Ucrânia. Foi uma violação territorial, uma invasão não provocada, com ataques indiscriminados e massacres à população civil, com bombardeios diários em uma milenar capital europeia.

Seja político ou general, civil ou militar, quem for neutro ou apoiar à Rússia neste momento estará avalizando uma futura guerra em nosso território, onde pseudos movimentos separatistas apoiados por uma potência militar estrangeira poderão criar uma secessão em áreas de fronteira e até a perda de partes significativas do território brasileiro, com ou sem uma guerra.

Lula disse que respeita a soberania e a integridade territorial da Ucrânia. Mas de qual território ele está falando? O território internacionalmente reconhecido, com as fronteiras anteriores a 2013, que inclui a Crimeia, Luhansk e Donetsk ou apenas deseja uma paz imediata, congelando o conflito e mantendo nas mãos de Moscou os territórios ocupados pelos russos e forçadamente anexados após eleições ilegais e ilegítimas organizadas pela força de ocupação, as quais ironicamente, contaram com observadores brasileiros membros de diretórios do Partido dos Trabalhadores?

Importante lembrar que o PT sempre condenou a revolução ucraniana (movimento Praça Maidan) e sempre apoiou as ações russas.

Em várias oportunidades nos últimos anos o Governo Ucraniano enviou cartas ao Governo Brasileiro convidando o país para integrar e comandar tropas de uma missão de paz sob a égide das Nações Unidas. Nunca houve uma resposta brasileira e uma concordância russa às iniciativas de paz ucranianas.

Volodymyr Zelenskyi, que de palhaço não tem nada, surpreendeu o mundo com um protagonismo e se mostrou ser o grande estadista do Século XXI. Ele sabe o que faz. Convidou Lula para visitar a Ucrânia, se reunir com ele em Kyiv, escutar o som das sirenes de alarme aéreo, ver com seus olhos a destruição e os massacres em Bucha, Irpin e Borodyanka. O estadista ucraniano só acreditará nas boas intenções do mandatário brasileiro quando este desembarcar na estação ferroviária de Kyiv.

Enquanto isso não acontece, esperamos que o plano de paz de Lula não seja apenas uma ação entre amigos e tenha sido combinado com os russos. Se isso for verdade, o isolamento internacional de Lula será ainda maior que o de Bolsonaro

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Putin Has Assembled an Axis of Autocrats Against Ukraine - Justin Daniels (Foreign Policy), Augusto de Franco (Dagobah)

Putin Has Assembled an Axis of Autocrats Against Ukraine

Russia’s war is receiving critical assistance from authoritarian regimes around the world.

By Justin Daniels, assistant editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Justin Daniels, Foreignpolicy (03/03/2023)

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/03/putin-russia-china-iran-ukraine-autocrats/

Via Augusto de Franco: https://dagobah.com.br/putin-has-assembled-an-axis-of-autocrats-against-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR0jdQ7bcm2N630ZrOsFGtnKLELrfPWvwH8_uIjiF87lEVruW7BSHjPBWAQ

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov walk as they attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State in Bishkek on June 14, 2019. VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES  

Russia isn’t fighting Ukraine alone. Alongside its soldiers are African conscripts, supported by Iranian drones and partly funded by stolen gold and diamonds. They may soon be joined by “lethal support” from China, according to U.S. officials.

For these vital contributions, Russian President Vladimir Putin can thank his fellow autocrats. And he’s returning the favor: Despite the invasion’s heavy toll on Russia, he still sends resources to other embattled dictators. Autocrats, like democrats, are finding that war offers them new opportunities to cooperate. And dictators’ inherent interest in staying in power means that their collaboration will continue regardless of whether Ukraine prevails.

These networks weren’t created overnight but reflect prolonged effortsby Russia, China, and likeminded regimes to make the world safe for autocracy—particularly following the Western response to Putin’s first Ukraine invasion in 2014. Their activities include neutering international civil society, spreading disinformation, and exporting surveillance technology. Today’s war in Ukraine illustrates the power of these networks—coalitions not of the willing but the wanton—to not only sustain authoritarianism where it already exists, but to export it by force.

These networks have impeded Western attempts to isolate the Kremlin and starve its war machine. Within days of the invasion, Western diplomats made Russia the most sanctioned country in the world. At first, these penalties appeared to be working: They erased Russia’s post-Soviet development gains, and more than a thousand international companies left the country. But Russia built new ties. For instance, as oil exports to the West fell in 2022, purchases from China and India—countries that did not condemn the invasion—made up the difference, contributing to Russia’s record $227 billion trade surplus. Russia used these funds to pay for the war and blunt its economic consequences for ordinary Russians. On the diplomatic front, Russia has been heavily courting African nations.

Belarus’s Aleksandr Lukashenko has aided Putin the most, hosting Russia’s troops and allowing missile launches from Belarusian territory, but these authoritarian networks stretch much farther than neighboring countries. Take, for example, Sudan. When sanctions sent the value of Russian rubles plunging to record lows, the Kremlin turned to its gold reserves to prop it up. In order to fill those reserves—which had tripled in size since Russia’s 2014 invasion—the Russians have been colluding with Sudan’s military dictatorship to smuggle billions of dollars’ worth of gold out of the country. One shipment, hidden under boxes of cookies, was scheduled to depart Khartoum just days after the invasion.

Russia’s Sudanese gold-mining front is called Meroe Gold. It began operations in 2017, weeks after the country’s then-dictator, Omar al-Bashir, asked Putin for help staying in power. Russia dispatched advisors from the Wagner Group, the ruthless Kremlin-linked mercenary group fighting in Ukraine and around the world. Wagner’s advice lived up to its reputation: During Sudan’s 2018 protests, its personnel told al-Bashir to execute individual demonstrators to set an example. After pro-democracy protests ousted al-Bashir in 2019, Wagner cozied up to Sudan’s military, which toppled the country’s nascent democratic government in 2021. In return, Wagner was given free rein of the mining industry. It has eliminated the competition by massacring dozens of miners near Sudan’s border with the Central African Republic (CAR).

The Central African story is depressingly similar to Sudan’s. Besieged by rebels, in 2018 the country’s president appealed to the Kremlin for arms and to Wagner to train his troops. Unlike in Sudan, in 2020 Wagner began to fight the insurgents directly. As payment, the government ceded control of the diamond industry. Wagner forces artisanal miners to sell only to its shell company, Diamville, through intimidation and violence. The blood diamonds are then smuggled out of the country and sold unofficially on Facebook and Instagram and officially through dealers in the West in order to fund Wagner’s operations.

In addition to money, Wagner—facing heavy losses in Ukraine—is drawing manpower from the CAR and its neighbors. It has recruitedimprisoned murderers, rapists, and even rebels convicted of killing CAR soldiers (Wagner’s ostensible allies), promising freedom and cash to anyone willing to fight in Ukraine. In March 2022, Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar agreed to send mercenaries to fight for Russia, and Syrians are reportedly joining them.

While deployed in Africa, Wagner personnel have behaved with impunity: pillaging, raping, and trafficking women. Nevertheless, when asked, many Central Africans back Moscow or credit Wagner for bringing peace. Sixteen African nations, including the CAR and Sudan, abstained or voted against the February 2023 United Nations resolution calling on Russia to exit Ukraine. This is a testament not only to public opinion (or indifference) about Ukraine’s plight, but also to the appeal of what the Kremlin offers Africa’s autocrats. Leaders of poor but resource-rich countries are effectively giving Wagner bits of their sovereignty—and ignoring any resulting human rights violations—as payment for keeping them in power. And more are interested: Ghana’s president alleged that Burkina Faso’s leadership requested Wagner’s help, offering a mine in return.

Not every case of support for Russia’s war machine is so brazen or features a private military-mafia straight from a James Bond movie. Take the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Its willingness to look past shady financial transactions has allowed billions of dollars to flow to the Kremlin, as much of Sudan’s gold and the CAR’s diamonds are sold illicitly there. The UAE also bills itself as a haven for sanctioned Russian oligarchs, making it easy for them to come, buy Emirati citizenship, and park their yachts, planes, and ill-gotten gains. Turkey has become an entrepôt for European businesses seeking to continue trading with Russia. Chinese defense companies are supplying the Kremlin with crucial navigation, radio-jamming, and fighter jet components.

Armaments are also a growing part of Russia’s dealings with Iran, another embattled, sanctioned autocracy. Iranian drones have played a “central role” in attacks on Ukrainian civilians. And more are coming: The two countries are planning to build a factory in Russia to produce at least 6,000 of them. Iran, for its part, should receive around 24 Russian fighter jets by March. It also turned to Russia for counsel on defusing the protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death, so the Kremlin reportedly dispatched advisors. These actions are leading Moscow and Tehran toward a “full-fledged defense partnership”.

Not all autocrats are moving toward Putin. In principle, Venezuela’s regime consistently supports Russian imperialism: It took Russia’s side against Georgia in 2008, recognized Crimea as Russian, and blamed the West for the Ukraine invasion. And Putin helped Venezuela’s dictator to sell oil as democracies recognized the opposition government-in-exile and imposed crushing sanctions. But now, in practice, relations between Venezuela and the West are normalizing: Maduro wants to sell oil, and the West wants to stop buying it from Russia.

Venezuela shows that these coalitions of the wanton are as easy to make as they are to break, for they are held together only by self-interest. Nevertheless, these ties are bound to proliferate as autocrats turn to each other amid crisis. The Kremlin in particular views these networks as fundamental to maintaining power at home and waging a perceived existential struggle against the West. In other words, autocrats already see their struggles against democracy—whether in Iran, Sudan, or Ukraine—as interconnected and act accordingly. Democracies must learn to do the same.

Justin Daniels is assistant editor of the Journal of Democracy. Twitter: @JustinMDaniels

Imagem da capa. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov walk as they attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State in Bishkek on June 14, 2019. VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Minitratado sobre um gigante letárgico chamado Brasil - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Minitratado sobre um gigante letárgico chamado Brasil

  

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Diplomata, professor

(www.pralmeida.org; diplomatizzando.blogspot.com)

Nota sobre os impasses estruturais do Brasil atual. 

 

O Brasil continua parecido consigo mesmo: um grandalhão apalermado que não sabe bem para onde ir, mas que continua caminhando lentamente para a frente.

 

Afastado o desgoverno de um mentecapto que não tinha qualquer projeto para o país, a não ser a defesa de suas obsessões pessoais e familiares, voltamos ao experimento populista popular que representou o máximo de organização partidária — num país em que os partidos são máquinas a serviço de caciques ligados a oligarquias setoriais ou regionais — colocado à disposição de uma elite diferente das tradicionais, mas que alimenta ideias e projetos anacrônicos e defasados, embora conectados a interesses sociais de camadas não privilegiadas da população (que são a maioria do eleitorado).

 

A questão que se coloca agora é a seguinte: para onde irá o país, nos planos político, econômico e internacional.

Ainda admitindo que a história é uma caixa de surpresas, eu diria que o itinerário futuro do Brasil não será muito diferente do que tem sido desde a redemocratização: um gigante desorganizado, com elites confusas, tocando projetos contraditórios, que nos arrastarão penosa e lentamente para uma modernização parcial, limitada e carente de maior dinamismo societal.

 

No plano político, não existe ameaça de nova ruptura antidemocrática, como tentou fazer o psicopata que ocupou o governo entre 2019 e 2022, sustentado por militares ressentidos e setores reacionários de um empresariado inepto.

O PT dificilmente conquistará a hegemonia política necessária para consolidar total monopólio do poder, mas pode obter condições sociais para dar continuidade ao seu projeto político, que não é diferente do das oligarquias: obter vantagens, deixando o Brasil na letargia “normal”.

No plano econômico, teremos impulsos inovadores vindos da própria sociedade, mas o ogro famélico representado por um Estado superdimensionado consumirá muitos recursos consigo mesmo, mantendo, portanto, os mesmos traços de desigualdade distributiva e de iniquidade social que sempre foram os seus em sua integral trajetória histórica.

No plano da política internacional, voltaremos a ser o que sempre fomos tradicionalmente: um país participante ativo do sistema global de poder, pelo seu peso específico em algumas alavancas da ordem global, sobretudo econômicas, mas carente de poder decisório, por não dispor de outras alavancas de poder extrínseco, que é justamente a capacidade de projetar poder bruto, próprio dos grandes impérios.

 

Em síntese, a menos de alguma liderança com dotes de estadista que possa emergir da confusa desorganização política na qual nos encontramos atualmente, o Brasil provavelmente permanecerá esse gigante letárgico que foi pelo último meio século, progredindo sempre um pouquinho, mas não o suficiente para mudar sua condição estrutural, pois como dizia Mario de Andrade, cem anos atrás, o progresso também é uma fatalidade.

Nossa condição estrutural é essa do Prometeu acorrentado, não por um decreto dos deuses, mas por suas próprias contradições sociais, e também por certo atraso mental, e cupidez, de suas elites.

 

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brasília, 4332: 4 março 2023, 2 p.