Recebo, do Center for Financial Stability -- e acho esse nome totalmente contraditório, um conundrum -- seu boletim com um artigo publicado nesta quinta-feira naquele hiper-super jornal capitalista reacionário, dos especuladores de Wall Street, o próprio, cujo autor é o "bruxo" do Comitê Assessor de bancos que negociou, durante todos os anos 1980 a dívida brasileira e de diversos outros países latino-americanos, William Rhodes, Bill para os íntimos.
Ele também presidiu o seminário sobre Bretton Woods, realizado em setembro do ano passado no New Hampshire, lá mesmo em BW, e ao qual deixei de ir porque estava atravessando pela segunda vez os EUA.
Os muito anti-imperialistas não precisam ler, mas os interessados em aprender alguma coisa com um banqueiro imperialista, e que não se sente envergonhado de sê-lo, vão tirar proveiro das matérias.
Tem alguma lição para o Brasil desse artigo sobre a Grécia?
Bem, não pelo lado da dívida, pelo menos ainda não.
Mas sim pelo lado do câmbio.
Quando os agentes percebem que a situação vai se deteriorar, e que haverá desvalorização cambial, ocorre uma rápida fuga de capitais, não de capitalistas estrangeiros fugindo de país, mas de nacionais simplesmente se precavendo e especulando um pouco: compra-se dólar, pois quando a desvalorização ocorrer (como aliás já ocorreu), de 10, 20 ou 30%, depois se traz o dinheiro de volta com um bom lucro. Pois é...
O Larry que assina é Lawrence Goodman, president do CFS.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
This morning, The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed "Greece's Achilles' Heel" by William R. Rhodes. Bill is the President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, LLC; Professor-at-Large at Brown University; and former Senior Vice Chairman of Citigroup Inc. CFS was honored to have Bill serve as a member of the Honorary Committee at Bretton Woods 2014.
"Greece's Achilles' Heel" is excellent (see http://on.wsj.com/1HUxBjp). It struck a chord on two levels.
1) The approach is clear and represents the best path for Greece. Bill notes:
- "It has yet to start negotiating seriously about a long-term solution to its debt crisis. The government needs to understand that creditors have long memories and want assurances that it will live up to the terms of whatever deal is struck."
- "Past crises have shown that there is never a white knight able to ride to the rescue - despite rumors that the Greeks may turn to Moscow and Beijing for aid."
- "Sovereign-debt deals have the best chance of succeeding if they are not seen as being imposed by the creditors, but rather owned and authored by the debtor country's government."
In a paper "Solving the Greek Crisis," CFS outlined the math supporting a similar strategy in 2011. Although time has elapsed, the basic approach remains valid (See "Solving the Greek Crisis: http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Greece_062411.pdf).
2) On a personal note, I traveled with a fellow banker to Nicaragua in the late 1980s to help structure a buyback. Nothing happened. In the aftermath, the country remained stagnant through 1995 when a buyback was finally orchestrated and the country began to grow again. Now is the time for action in Greece.
Lastly, at Bretton Woods, Bill offered an Honorary Committee Address called "Critical Issues for the Bretton Woods Institutions" - see http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/bw2014/bw_rhodes.pdf. Many of these issues and recommendations are essential reading in advance of the upcoming IMF / World Bank meetings.
Best regards,
Larry
President
Center for Financial Stability, Inc.
1120 Avenue of the Americas, 4th floor
New York, NY 10036
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org
The Center for Financial Stability is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent think tank dedicated to financial markets for the benefit of investors, officials, and the public.
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