Talvez, mas não tenho certeza, pois ele ainda precisa passar pelo Senado:
LatAm Talking Points - Chilean Central Bank expectedly on hold
Talk of the Day, May 18, 2016
Chile
As unanimously expected, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% at its monthly monetary policy meeting. The press release retained the same tightening bias issued in last month’s decision. The central bank has now been on hold for five consecutive months following the start of a short and discontinuous tightening cycle in the final quarter of 2015. The press release highlighted that inflation expectations remain anchored at 3% in the two-year policy horizon. Inflation is expected to remain above 4% for some months to come (4.2% in April). In spite of the weaker activity performance in March, the central bank sees activity growth in the 1Q16 above that envisioned in the 1Q16 Inflation Report (which forecasted growth between 1.25% and 2.25% for this year). The press release indicated the monetary policy normalization would continue at a pace that will depend on incoming data, in line with the IPoM guidance. We expect the central bank to undergo a prolonged pause, holding the policy rate at 3.5% throughout this year and 2017. We expect inflation to continue to gradually decelerate towards the central bank’s 3.0% target on the back of a wide output gap and the stabilization of the currency at current levels. ** Full story here.
Brazil
The new Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles announced positions in the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank. Meirelles indicated Ilan Goldfajn as the new Central Bank Governor. Before occupying the position as Central Bank Governor, Goldfajn’s name needs to be approved by the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee. Until then, Alexandre Tombini remains as Central Bank Governor. In the Finance Ministry, Carlos Hamilton was nominated the Secretary of Economic Policy, Mansueto de Almeida as Secretary of Economic Monitoring (Seae) and Marcelo Caetano as the Secretary of Social Security.
According to FIESP, São Paulo state industry employment declined 1.0% m/m in April. With this result, we maintain our forecast of a destruction of 70k formal jobs (Caged) in April (consensus: -53k), which means a destruction of 170k jobs in seasonally adjusted terms.
According to trade data released by Funcex, terms of trade increased 0.9% m/m in April. Exported quantity declined 1.5% m/m, less than in the previous month. In contrast, imported quantity increased by 2.4% m/m.
After closing, the BCB announced that it will auction up to 20,000 reverse FX swaps contracts (USD 1 billion) on today.
Colombia
While the leap-year effect favored activity in February, religious celebrations in March had the reverse effect. Overall, manufacturing activity in 1Q16 was resilient (5.7% year over year), while retail sales were weak (1.2%), dragged down by the durable component. The expanding operations at the Cartagena oil refinery are still lifting manufacturing activity. Going forward, manufacturing will continue to be favorably affected by oil refining, but that will likely be offset by weak growth in Colombia’s trade partners for non-traditional products and slowing domestic consumption. In the months ahead, retail sales are likely to continue fragile, as indicated by low consumer confidence levels, due to lower real wages and tighter monetary policy. We expect activity to slow this year as low oil prices hit capital expenditures in the sector, higher interest rates reduce credit growth and elevated inflation reduces real wages. That said, the expanding operations of the Cartagena refinery and the investments associated with the 4G PPP will curb the slowdown. We see GDP growth of 2.5% for this year, down from the 3.1% in 2015. ** Full story here.
Consumer confidence remains low in April. Think-tank Fedesarrollo's consumer confidence for April came in at -13.0 points (0 = neutral level), compared to the +8.2 points in the 2015 corresponding period. The indicator has been below the neutral level since the start of the year and this is the lowest April recording in since 2002. As a result, consumer confidence was -18.0 in the quarter ending in April (+8.2 in the equivalent period in 2015). The breakdown has consumer expectations at -6.3 points (+8 one year ago), completing four consecutive months in negative territory. Consumer confidence is dragged down by the expectation for the economy over the next 12 months (-31.5). Meanwhile, it was lifted by the expectation that personal economic situation in the next year will improve (+26.3). Consumers view the current economic conditions in poor light at -23.1 points (+8.5 in April 2015). The weak consumer confidence comes in light of higher interest rates, high inflation and a gradually loosening labor market. Retail sales grew a weak 1.2% in 1Q16 (2.7% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2014), and the low confidence levels hint that a rebound is unlikely in the near future. We expect GDP growth of 2.5% this year, down from the 3.1% for 2015.
Argentina
Central bank cut 75bps the 35-day lebac rate to 36.75%. This is the second reduction after posting 38% for more than one month. As we expected, the CB is cutting the rate as the core inflation starts to show moderation.Core inflation in April fell to 2.8% from 3.5% in March and 3.9% average in December-February.
Macro Research - Itaú
Ilan Goldfajn - Chief Economist
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