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quinta-feira, 16 de janeiro de 2025

Quanto tempo de "vida" tem o Secretário de Estado de Trump? Muito, pouco, muito pouco? - Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose (CNN)

 Os analistas políticos americanos não confiam em que o Secretário de Estado de Trump dure muito tempo:


'When Marco speaks ... toilets flush themselves'
Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose
CNN Meanwhile in America, Jan 15, 2025

Marco Rubio has the chance to be an excellent secretary of state and his Senate pals are sure to confirm him in the job.

But how long can he last?

Running US diplomacy for Donald Trump is like having a root canal every day. The president-elect's first, first-term Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had a nightmare, which culminated in his calling Trump a “moron” and getting fired by tweet. His successor Mike Pompeo did last three years, but only by downplaying his own power and influence and giving Trump credit for anything that went right.

Rubio’s nomination was greeted with huge relief by US allies and foreign policy professionals in Washington because he’s seen as stable and reasonable. This despite amping up his histrionics to fit his hawkish conservative internationalism within Trump’s “America First” creed. His painful genuflecting before his 2016 primary opponent is typical of the rite of humiliation Trump demands of former foes.

But his best qualities were on display when the Florida senator held court in his confirmation hearing Wednesday, conducting a sweeping global seminar, without notes, and displaying impressive depth. Not only did he know what ASEAN was -- unlike his counterpart for Trump's pick for secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, who testified on Tuesday -- he offered a intricate analysis of the Southeast Asian grouping’s internal political dynamics and views on Beijing.

Rubio also showcased his intense suspicion of China, describing the rising giant as the most “potent and dangerous near peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.” Despite his long-term hostility towards Vladimir Putin, Rubio argued that Ukraine would be unable to fully repel the Russian invasion and that the war should end, aligning himself with the president-elect. But he reassured foreign policy traditionalists by saying he still supports a law that he helped write that means Trump can’t quit NATO without Senate approval.

After Trump refused to rule out sending troops to take back the Panama Canal, Rubio suggested that the terms under which the US turned over the critical waterway may have been violated by two Chinese ports at its ends. But he stressed Panama’s government was a friend of the United States and that the situation could probably be sorted out. This is an example of how Rubio hopes to leverage Trump’s saber rattling to fashion a cohesive American foreign policy.

Not everyone in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee agrees with Rubio, but senators on both sides were wowed by his expertise. Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine said, “We are used to nominees who know a lot about a couple of things or sometimes who know very little about virtually everything.”

Rubio is taking a big risk in leaving the Senate’s clubby confines for Trump’s three-ring circus. The fault lines of an eventual schism with the new president are already evident. While he wants to crack down on China, the president-elect seems to be itching to do deals with leader Xi Jinping. Rubio is a long-time proponent of human rights, a universal value for which his new boss has little time. Trump has also boxed Rubio in by appointing a slew of envoys who will bite chunks out of his portfolio. Turf wars also rage between the State Department and the White House. But it’s all magnified ten-fold under Trump.

And sooner or later, Trump sours on everyone. While Rubio travels the world, MAGA loyalists will be trashing him to the president and reminding Trump of their “small hands” showdown during the 2016 campaign. This is where Rubio’s relationship with new national security adviser Mike Waltz, a Florida House member, who is said to be close to the Florida senator, will be especially critical.

Rubio knows the drill. He repeatedly stressed Wednesday that Trump will be making foreign policy and he’ll just be implementing it, showing how Cabinet members must minimize their own clout to keep the president-elect sweet.

It’s no secret Rubio still pines to be president. So he must stay in Trump’s favor and build bonds with the MAGA base so he can run as his heir. He could then leave Foggy Bottom to launch a GOP primary campaign in 2027, in a crowded field that may include Vice President-elect JD Vance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and even Trump’s son Don Jr.

In 2015, Dan Gelber, a former Florida House Democratic minority leader, told CNN about a warning he gave to his party when the young Rubio was the speaker of the state’s legislature. “When Marco Rubio speaks, young women swoon, old women faint and toilets flush themselves,” he said. “This guy is really good. Marco is instinctive. He is also very, very disciplined.”

Soon-to-be-Secretary of State Rubio will need all those skills to keep his political career alive.

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