1418) David Fleischer and current moves in Brazilian diplomacy

Brazil Foreign Minister Celso Amorim setting the tune for “Musical Chairs” at Itamaraty

This posting is a guest contribution by Dr. David Fleischer, Emeritus professor of Political Science at the University of Brasília, and editor of Brazil Focus – a weekly political risk newsletter

CIGI, Monday, October 12th, 2009

In early October 2009, Itamaraty (the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Relations) is operating a round of “musical chairs” with a rotation of its top three posts – Secretary-General (number two), and the ambassadors to Argentina and the US.

This “rotation” was provoked by the retirement of Amb. Samuel Pinheiro Guimarães as Secretary-General in mid-October as he reaches the mandatory retirement age (70). Apparently, Amb. Guimarães will be appointed Minister of Strategic Affairs, replacing Prof. Roberto Mangabeira Unger who left this position in June 2009 to reassume his duties at the Harvard Law School after two years leave of absence.

Samuel Pinheiro Guimarães is considered the “principal ideologue” at Itamaraty and responsible for installing a rigorous Left ideological “line” since 2003 with stronger emphasis on South-South relations and with an ongoing dialogue with what Pres. Bush called the “axis of evil” – Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, etc. Thus, given his interest in the world of conceptual ideas, the Strategic Affairs position is thought to be appropriate.

Reportedly, Brazil’s current Ambassador in Washington Antônio Patriota would be transferred to Brasília to replace Amb. Guimarães as number two under Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. Amb. Patriota replaced veteran diplomat, Amb. Roberto Abdenur (then age 64) in November 2006. This appointment reflected the tone that has come to mark the Itamaraty during President Lula’s administration: Fairly inexperienced diplomats who have close links to the institution’s top echelon are named to the most important embassies while veteran ambassadors – who might voice disagreement with the ministry’s policies – suffer various degrees of ostracism. This was the case with Ambassador Abdenur. He was transferred back to Brasília on a 48-hour notice on justifications that his posture was incongruent with Brazil’s foreign policy “line”. He had “spoken out of turn” regarding Brazil’s enhanced trade relations with China, anticipating possible dumping of Chinese exports (that occurred in 2007-2008 and forced Brazil to impose “quotas” Chinese textile, clothing and shoe exports).

This was a case of “what goes around comes around.” Samuel Pinheiro Guimarães was himself ostracized during the second government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso. He was the Director of IPRI (International Relations Research Institute) and attacked the FTAA in successive public speeches. He was removed from the IPRI position and not assigned to another post.

Roberto Abdenur had served as Brazil’s ambassador in Berlin, Peking, Vienna and Quito, and was replaced by Antônio Patriota (then age 52), a career diplomat who had never before received an assignment as ambassador. A few months previous, another “junior diplomat” (with no previous experience as ambassador) – Mauro Vieira – was appointed Brazil’s ambassador in Buenos Aires. Amb. Patriota had previously worked under Amorim at the UN and in Geneva (WTO), and in 2006 was the under-secretary for political affairs at Itamaraty.

To complete this October 2009 “rotation”, reportedly Mauro Vieira is to be transferred from Buenos Aires to Washington, and Ruy Nogueira, the current under-secretary for Trade Promotion (also closely linked to Amorim) was to be Brazil’s new ambassador to Argentina. However, Ruy Nogueira declined Amorim’s invitation and instead Ênio Cordeiro, the current sub-Secretary-General (number two under Guimarães) was chosen.

In a missed opportunity, a fourth senior diplomat who was also under consideration in this “rotation” was passed over. Vera Machado the former Brazilian ambassador to India and the Vatican would have been the first woman to represent Brazil in Washington or Buenos Aires.

Finally, in late September, Foreign Minister Celso Amorim switched his party affiliation from the PMDB to the PT. This fanned speculations that he might run for office in the October 2010 elections. If so, he would have to “step down” [resign his post] in early April 2010, and President Lula would have to choose a new foreign minister. The second “locus” of Brazilian foreign policy is with the Foreign Affairs Advisor within the presidential office – Professor Marco Aurélio Garcia – who as long-time PT’s national coordinator for international relations has a close relationship with President Lula. Professor Garcia is expected to remain at Lula’s side until January 1, 2011 even if Celso Amorim “steps down” in April 2010. Marco Aurélio Garcia has been chosen to elaborate the campaign program of PT pre-candidate for president in 2010 – Dilma Rousseff.

Thus, there are no concrete indications that this “musical chairs” rotation will produce any major changes in Brazil’s foreign policy posture – bilateral relations with the US and Argentina, or in multi-lateral forums such as the UN, the OAS, the WTO, the G-20, or Global Climate Change.

1417) Governos privatizam, para fazer caixa; no Brasil o governo dá calote...

Tanto o governo socialista inglês, quanto o governo autoritário russo estão privatizando ativos, simplesmente para fazer caixa e enfrentar as dificuldades conjunturais. Ou seja, não há nada de muito ideológico nas opções de venda de ativos públicos, pura e simplesmente necessidade de dinheiro para enfrentar os problemas da crise. Os dois países, Grã-Bretanha e Rússia, são dos mais afetados pela crise internacional, com notáveis decréscimos dos PIBs respectivos, alto desemprego e enormes déficits públicos.

Enquanto isso, no Brasil, o governo além de ser um extrator compulsório, é um devedor caloteiro, pois acaba de anunciar que vai devolver o dinheiro dos contribuintes apenas no ano que vem.
Trata-se de um roubo, pura e simplesmente, pois os particulares e algumas empresas (menos as que optaram pela declaração no final do ano) já recolheram o imposto presumido ao governo (os assalariados, públicos ou privados, sem qualquer opção, pois o dinheiro é subtraído na folha de pagamentos) e teriam direito ao SEU dinheiro pago a mais.
O governo simplesmente se apropria do que não é dele, o que deveria merecer um processo por crime de responsabilidade (suponho que a lei do imposto de renda preveja a devolução logo após a declaração).
É uma situação claramente de arbítrio, pois o dinheiro foi antecipado ao governo a cada mês do ano passado. Uma vez feita a declaração (cinco meses depois do pagamento mais recente e mais de um ano depois do começo das contribuições compulsórias), o governo deveria devolver imediatamente os pagamentos em excesso.
Ele diz que ninguém vai perder pois o governo corrigirá pela taxa Selic.
Ora, isso é um duplo roubo e um escárnio: nenhum particular toma dinheiro à taxa Selic, e se o governo acha justo então faça empréstimo nessa taxa para devolver o que deve aos particulares.
O governo não está sem dinheiro por causa da crise, tanto porque reduziu impostos e estimulou a atividade que voltou a crescer. O governo está sem dinheiro porque gasta muito, contrata demais, cria muitos empregos públicos e torra o dinheiro do contribuinte de forma irresponsável.
Em lugar de privatizar, fica criando mais estatais.
Esse governo é uma piada de mau gosto.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida (12.10.2009)

1416) Os materiais sobre a derrubada do Muro de Berlim e o fim da Guerra Fria do National Security Archive

Ao escrever meu ensaio sobre a Alemanha e a derrubada do muro de Berlim, apoiei-me bastante nos materiais recém divulgados pelo National Security Archive da Universidade George Washington, relativos aos eventos de 1989.
Abaixo uma informação sobre o último livro eletrônico divulgado sobre o tema.

A Different October Revolution: Dismantling the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 290
Edited by Svetlana Savranskaya and Thomas Blanton
Posted - October 9, 2009
Link: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB290/index.htm

Washington, D.C., October 9, 2009 - Twenty years ago today, crowds of East German demonstrators took to the streets in Leipzig starting their own October revolution that would bring down the Berlin Wall a month later. Ironically, these massive peaceful crowds of about 70,000 people gathered in the streets and squares of Leipzig just two days after the celebrations of the 40th anniversary of the German Democratic Republic and the visit by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to Berlin. GDR leader Erich Honecker's security forces were faced with a choice—to apply the Chinese Tiananmen model or to go along with their Soviet patron's advice not to use force. They chose the latter, and several days later Honecker was sent to retirement and replaced with reform Communist Egon Krenz on October 17, 1989.

(ver a suite no link acima)

1415) O projeto sobre a Guerra Fria do Wilson Center

Acabo de escrever um ensaio sobre a Alemanha antes e depois da derrubada (que prefiro ao termo queda) do muro de Berlim. Apoiei-me bastante nos materiais do programa de pesquisa do Wilson Center sobre a Guerra Fria, assim como sobre os materiais disponíveis no National Security Archive, da George Washington University.
Abaixo a relação dos materiais disponíveis no projeto do Wilson Center:

Cold War International History Project
Virtual Archive 2.0
Link: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1409&fuseaction=va2.browse&sort=Collection

Collection :
1945-46 Iranian Crisis
1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina
1956 Hungarian Revolution
1956 Polish Crisis
1980-81 Polish Crisis
Albania and the Indochina War
Albania and the Non-Aligned Movement
Algeria in the Cold War
Anti-Colonialism in the Cold War
Bandung Conference
Bulgaria in the Cold War
China in the Cold War
Chinese Foreign Policy in the Third World
Cold War Origins
Communist Activity in Latin America
CSCE Negotiation Process
Cuba in the Cold War
Cuban Missile Crisis
Czechoslovakia in the Cold War
East German Uprising
Economic Cold War
End of the Cold War
France in the Cold War
Germany in the Cold War
Hungary in the Cold War
Intelligence Operations in the Cold War
Mongolia in the Cold War
North Korea in the Cold War
Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Poland in the Cold War
Post Stalin succession struggle
Romania in the Cold War
Sino-Soviet Relations
Sino-Soviet Split
Sino-US Ambassadorial Talks
Soviet Foreign Policy
Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia
Soviet Nuclear Development
Stalin and the Cold War
The Cold War in Africa
The Cold War in Asia
The Cold War in Latin America
The Cold War in the Middle East
The Horn of Africa Crisis
The Korean War
The Mitrokhin Archive
The Nikita Khrushchev Papers
The Non-Aligned Movement
The Vietnam (Indochina) War(s)
The Warsaw Pact
Todor Zhivkov Papers
US-Cuban Relations
US-Soviet Relations
USS Pueblo Crisis
Warsaw Pact Military Planning
Western Media
Yugoslavia in the Cold War

1414) Teoria da Mais-Valia: a verdadeira paternidade

Para quem acha que Marx foi o genial inventor da teoria da mais-valia, valeria a pena ler os trabalhos do economista britanico Thomas Hodgskin (falecido em 1869), e que desde 1825 argumentava que o capital extraia valor dos trabalhadores, confiscando o excendente produzido pelos trabalhadores.
Como se vê, Marx foi um excelente adepto da teoria do "rouba mas faz (intelectual)"...

E para quem acha que Marx foi o autor de outra frase famosa: "de cada um segundo suas capacidades,a cada um segundo suas necessidades":

Sem pretender voltar a uma (aparentemente) inutil discussao sobre essa frase "marxista", e sem pretender desiludir aqueles que continuam acreditando que essa frase é puramente, unicamente de extração marxiana, gostaria de chamar a atencao para o fato de que Marx, um leitor compulsivo de livros de economistas contemporaneos e predecessores, nas suas longas jornadas na British Library, na verdade copiou essa frase do pensador britanico William Goodwin (que morreu em 1836).
De tendencia idealista anarquista, Goodwin já proclamava, desde o final do seculo XVIII, que todo governo era um mal, e que a distribuicao dos bens produzidos deveria ser feita de acordo com as necessidades de cada um.
Como se vê, Marx tambem aderia ao famoso "cut and paste" dos nossos tempos, emprestando ideias de outros filósofos sociais, sem necessariamente pagar direitos autorais por isso, ou sequer "moral rights"...
Sorry, marxianos...

1413) Enquete habitacional: qual a melhor designacao para esta habitacao?

Não, não se trata do programa governamental "Minha Casa, Minha Vida", que já tem nome e marca registrada, ainda que não avance muito com toda a publicidade governamental em cima dele.
Se trata, simplesmente de como designar os locais que já foram uma embaixada do Brasil, em Tegucigalpa.

O jornalista Augusto Nunes, que mantêm um Blog no site da Veja, lançou a seguuinte enquete, que reproduzo, com os respectivos scores de respostas, da revista desta semana (edição 2.134, ano 42, n. 41, 14 de outubro de 2009):

Enquete
Qual destes quatro nomes deve batizar o prédio onde funcionou a embaixada brasileira em Honduras?

Pensão do Lula: 35%
Cortiço do Chávez: 33%
Zona do Zelaya: 21%
Casa de Tolerância Xiomara: 11%

Pois bem, permito-me acrescentar novas sugestões, como abaixo, e comprometo-me a acolher e incorporar novas ideias e recomendações de leitores, desde que não ofensivas às tradições austeras da utilização original:

Embaixada da Mãe Joana
Albergue da Senectude
Pensão Asilo Al revés
Hotel de Trânsito Diplomático
Tegucigalpa Inn (and no out)
Centro Bolivariano de Agitação Política


Adições, complementos e correções sempre bem-vindos, desde que respeitados os critérios dos bons serviços de hotelaria...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida (12.10.2009)

1412) Seguro Saude nos EUA: nao existe solucao milagre

Apenas uma nota de caução do Wall Street Journal, um jornal desavergonhadamente capitalista, mas que costuma colocar o dedo nos pontos sensíveis, isto é: quanto vai custar e quem vai pagar?

REVIEW & OUTLOOK
The Stressed German Model
Wall Street Journal, October 10, 2009

It took the Germans 125 years to figure out that their health-care system doesn't work.
What if the Obama health-care proposal turned out to be the biggest public-policy mistake in 125 years?

Yesterday, these columns discussed the Congressional Budget Office's efforts to push the square peg of the Obama plan through the round hole of affordability. Meanwhile in Germany, often cited by American liberals as the "model" of a well-run health-care plan, the political debate is running in the opposite direction. Chancellor Angela Merkel's new coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party, is pressing her to claw back the state's participation in a system that now insures nine of 10 Germans.

Germany's health-care system was brought to life in 1883 by Otto von Bismarck and became the model for virtually every such state-directed national insurance plan since. Alas, the German system is starting to come apart at the financial seams. Germany's system relies on a handful of state-supported health insurers. This week they informed the government that the system was on the brink of a financial shortfall equal to nearly $11 billion.

Pointedly, the insurers made clear that cutbacks alone won't solve the problem. They said the government would have to consider raising premiums on the insured or, you guessed it, raise taxes. Currently, German workers pay a fixed-rate premium into the insurance scheme; that rate is now set at 14.9% of gross pay.

Chancellor Merkel, something of a political acrobat, was previously allied in coalition with leftist Social Democrats. She's now resisting calls from the Free Democrats to get off the state-pulled health-care train. The FDP's spokesman on health, Daniel Bahr, wants a "shift in direction away from state-run medicine." Why? Because "the current financial figures have showed us that the health-care fund doesn't work."

With Congress inching ever closer to passing a greater federal presence in providing health insurance under ObamaCare, let's hope it doesn't take the U.S. until the year 2134 to figure out it isn't working.

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A14