Economia dilmista: dois anos de fiasco - Editorial Estadao

Comentário inicial Paulo Roberto de Almeida:
Não existe novo modelo econômico, ou se existe não é modelo, e não é econômico, e sim uma vontade política, inscrita na mesma vertente autoritária que caracteriza o partido dos companheiros, e que pretende baixar os juros por decreto, e aumentar o consumo, como se isso garantisse crescimento. O que o governo está conseguindo é maior inflação e menor investimento, e portanto menor taxa de crescimento, em face das crescentes intervenções improvisadas do governo na economia. O ambiente macroeconômico é o mais confuso possível, pois não se sabe o que o governo vai ainda encontrar para o que ele chama de estímulo à economia. Manifestamente, o governo não confia nos mercados, e prefere usar seus próprios recursos para produzir, politicamente, crescimento. O que consegue, na verdade, é menos crescimento e mais inflação.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida  

Dois anos de fiasco econômico
Editorial O Estado de S.Paulo, 30/12/2012

A presidente Dilma Rousseff completa meio mandato com um balanço econô­mico assustador - dois anos de produ­ção estagnada, in­vestimento em que­da, inflação longe da meta, exporta­ção emperrada e contas públicas em deterioração. Desemprego baixo e um consumo ainda vigoroso são os dados positivos, mas insuficientes pa­ra garantir a reativação de uma indús­tria sem músculos para disputar espa­ço nos mercados. Sobram palavras: um discurso triunfal sobre um "novo modelo macroeconômico", baseado em juros mais baixos e câmbio me­nos valorizado, promessas de gran­des obras de infraestrutura e de refor­mas de amplo alcance. De concreto, houve a redução dos juros, o que cer­tamente contribuiu para o aumento da popularidade de Dilma. Um balan­ço provisório basta para mostrar o al­to custo dos erros cometidos em dois anos pelos condutores da política eco­nômica, liderados, é bom lembrar, por uma presidente voluntariosa.
O crescimento econômico deste ano está estimado em torno de um por cento por economistas do Banco Central (BC), do mercado financeiro e das consultorias mais importantes. Esse resultado seria em em qual­quer circunstância, mas no caso brasileiro há uma circunstância especial.
No ano anterior o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) havia aumentado apenas 2,7%. O País perdeu o passo entre os emergentes de todo o mundo. Este detalhe é importante, porque desqua­lifica as tentativas de atribuir o mau desempenho brasileiro à crise global, ao tsunami monetário criado pelos bancos centrais do mundo rico e à má vontade dos deuses.
Os problemas são internos, todos fabricados no Brasil por uma política há muito tempo defeituosa e piorada pela teimosia do atual governo. Se­gundo o Tesouro, os investimentos do governo central foram de janeiro a novembro 22,8% maiores que os de um ano antes e atingiram R$ 54,9 bi­lhões. Mas isso eqüivale a pouco mais de 50% do total previsto no Orçamen­to. Além disso, o valor inclui os finan­ciamentos do programa Minha Casa, Minha Vida e boa parte dos desembol­sos foi de restos a pagar. Se depender da eficiência federal, continuarão fal­tando investimentos tanto para reati­var a economia em 2013 quanto para garantir um crescimento mais vigoro­so nos anos seguintes,
Tudo somado, o valor investido pe­lo setor privado, pela administração pública direta e pelas estatais deve ter ficado em torno de 18% do PIB. Em outros países latino-americanos ja proporção ultrapassa 25% e nos emergentes da Ásia supera 35%. Além disso, é preciso levar em conta a qualidade dos projetos e a eficiência da execução. Não basta investir. Os al­vos podem ser mal escolhidos e o dinheiro, desperdiçado. O histórico dos projetos federais, tanto da administração direta quanto das estatais, tem sido muito em há vários anos. Aparelhamento, loteamento de car­gos, incompetência e corrupção têm custado muito caro.
A inflação alta contrasta com o bai­xo ritmo de atividade. Em outros paí­ses, tolera-se alguma alta de preços para garantir algum impulso à econo­mia, e sempre por um tempo muito li­mitado. No Brasil, o governo vem mantendo há vários anos a meta de 4,5%, muito alta quando comparada com os padrões internacionais. Neste ano, o BC cortou juros e renunciou a combater o aumento de preços, em troca de um crescimento econômico humilhante para um Brics.
Os preços ao consumidor medidos pela Fundação Getúlio Vargas e in­cluídos no IGPM subiram 5,79% nes­te ano, De novembro para dezembro houve aceleração de aumentos em seis dos oito componentes do indica­dor, O IPCA, calculado pelo IBGE e usado como referência para a política oficial, aumentou 5,53% nos 12 meses terminados em novembro. A alta in­ternacional dos preços agrícolas foi obviamente apenas uma parte dessa história.
A balança comercial refletiu a fra­queza da indústria diante dos compe­tidores, o erro de uma política de estí­mulos voltada para o consumo e, naturalmente, a dependência excessiva das vendas de matérias-primas à Chi­na. Até novembro, o valor exportado foi 4,9% menor que o de um ano an­tes, pela média dos dias úteis, e o sal­do comercial, 31,1% inferior ao de igual período de 2011. Os números fi­nais do ano devem sair na quarta-fei­ra e confirmarão, com certeza, o alto custo de vários erros políticos.

A arquitetura stalinista kitsch da Coreia do Norte - book review (WSJ)

Oscar Niemeyer provavelmente elogiaria as horrendas construcoes da Coreia do Norte.

Kingdom of Kitsch
The oversize public monuments and buildings in the capital of North Korea confirm the subservience of the citizen to the state and display the ghastly aesthetic imperatives of totalitarian art.
By ERIC GIBSON
The Wall Street Journal, December 28, 212

Browse the travel section of any bookstore and along with old reliables such as Michelin you'll find a plethora of other titles and brands covering just about every destination and taste. Surely the strangest addition to this genre is the two-volume "Architectural and Cultural Guide: Pyongyang," edited by Philipp Meuser, a German architect and architectural historian. Strange because Pyongnang is unlikely to be on anyone's "see before you die" list and because, even if it were, it's not an easy place to see. The capital of the Hermit Kingdom receives only a few hundred visitors a year, the bulk of them officially sanctioned and accompanied every step of the way by government minders.

Architectural and Cultural Guide: Pyongyang
Edited by Philipp Meuser
DOM, 368 pages, $49.95

DOM
not to scale The Grand Monument on Mansu Hill features a 60-foot statue of Kim Il-sung; a sculpture celebrating the founding of the Communist Party (below).

"Architectural and Cultural Guide: Pyongyang" must also count as the only travel guide that comes with a warning to leave it behind. "It is possible that some of the information published is classified under North Korean law," reads an advisory note. "The publisher cannot accept liability for any problems with local authorities that may arise from taking this publication into North Korean territory."

Why write a guide to such a place? Mr. Meuser's stated aim is to "lend normalcy to the abnormal." He writes of the "pervasive feeling . . . of bemusement and perplexity in the face of the totalitarian regime" when you visit North Korea. Some of this feeling stems from the near-ghost-town character of Pyongyang. A city of some 1,200 square miles (about double New York's geographical size), it has a population of about three million. Although the book's photographs show vast residential areas populated by thick clusters of high-rise apartment buildings, the streets are virtually empty. One of the most memorable images in the book is of a traffic cop on duty at an intersection, without a single car in sight.

Enlarge Image

DOM
But the city's air of unreality derives in the main from the fact that Pyongyang is a suffocating propaganda hothouse where everything—the layout, buildings, monuments, billboards, signage—is designed to express the ideology of "Juche," or national self-reliance. As such, everything is geared to glorifying the state and its leader and reminding all the citizens that their primary raison d'être is to continue the revolutionary struggle. Mr. Meuser tries to understand all this by taking us through Pyongyang's streets "as though exploring this city were no different from rambling through Tokyo, Copenhagen or Berlin."

The book is not so much a Baedeker—there are no transportation tips, no business hours, no walking tours or other standard guidebook information—as an attempt to parse a city that Mr. Meuser describes as "an architectural cabinet of curiosities. . . . arguably the world's best preserved open-air museum of socialist architecture."

The first volume of the book consists primarily of photographs and is divided into sections such as "Urban Planning," "Residential Buildings" and "Monuments." The second is a collection of essays, three by Mr. Meuser and the rest by two other architectural historians, one South Korean and the other, like Mr. Meuser, German. As a bonus of sorts, "Architectural and Cultural Guide: Pyongyang" includes a 10,000-word excerpt from a manifesto titled "On Architecture" (1991). It was written—or so we are asked to believe—by Kim Jong-il, North Korea's leader from 1994 until his death in 2011. "It is more important that architectural structures reflect revolutionary ideals," reads a typical sentence.

For all its mix of elements, Mr. Meuser has produced a book that is at once unique and invaluable, the most in-depth study of totalitarian art and aesthetics since the Russian art historian Igor Golomstock published his sweeping history of the subject 12 years ago. Only this book has the advantage of being focused on work that is still standing and visible, unlike the material from the Nazi and Soviet eras discussed by Mr. Golomstock.

Pyongyang was 90% destroyed during the Korean War. So its later, ground-up rebuilding as a communist capital makes it a textbook showcase of totalitarian kitsch—that perverse byway of genuine art. The animating principle of totalitarian kitsch is the glorification of the state and its leader. The style borrows its vocabulary from the forms of legitimate art—the figure, the equestrian statue, the landscape—but it empties them of all but the most cloying, shallow emotion, relying on an inflated sense of scale and an off-the-shelf, formulaic realism.

Indeed, totalitarian kitsch uses scale as an autonomous aesthetic element. This quality is abundantly on display in Pyongyang, in its 60-foot statues of Kim Il-sung, the country's founding leader, and in the official buildings, with their floor areas running to hundreds of thousands of square feet. The idea here is that size is the message. By dwarfing the populace, such gigantism conveys the subservience of the individual to the state. Still, when it comes to size, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il were pikers. Pyongyang's Arch of Triumph (1982) is about equal to Paris's Arc de Triomphe. The triumphal arch that Albert Speer designed for Hitler—part of a redesign of Berlin that was carefully planned but never built—was so vast that Paris's would have fit snugly into its aperture.

In Pyongyang, sometimes straining for the Big Statement has backfired, as in the case of the Ryugyong Hotel. Under construction since 1987, this 105-story, 6,000-bed pyramid is still unfinished, partly because its source of funding dried up with the collapse of the Soviet Union. "Looming over the city like a portent of doom, it is a daily reminder of the biblical Tower of Babel,'" writes Mr. Meuser. Or of a Potemkin village. Unusually for a building of that kind, the hotel is made entirely out of concrete. But "while a steel construction would have made better structural sense," writes Mr. Meuser, "it would have cost three times as much." Over the years, Pyongyang has moved away from Soviet-inspired concrete-block structures, seemingly the bastard children of Le Corbusier and a government planning bureau, to more modernistic, steel-and-glass structures like this hotel, all in an effort to appear more cosmopolitan.

If North Korea could be said to have made any "contribution" to the totalitarian-kitsch aesthetic, it is in Pyongyang's two giant memorial complexes, the Grand Monument on Mansu Hill (1972) and the Victorious Fatherland Liberation War Memorial (1993). Both consist of enormous plazas, some 450,000 square feet in area, dominated by a statue and subordinate sculptural groups. The Mansu Hill monument features, at its center, a 60-foot-high statue of Kim Il-sung; flanking him are two 150-foot-long sculptural groups, each with more than 100 figures parading ecstatically alongside a stylized, 75-foot-long flag. The war memorial is similarly designed but even more elaborate.

These memorial complexes allow us to speak of something totally new: the theater of totalitarian commemorative art. They are a hybrid form, a fusion of the traditional, stand-alone, single-figure monument and the Party rally. Think Nuremberg, only with dictator and martial attendants frozen in a perpetual act of exhortation. Visitors to these monuments become participants in a display of coercive propaganda as much as if they were attending a live outdoor assembly.

It's easy to make fun of Pyongyang's Ozymandias statuary, its comical anachronisms (such as the monument, unveiled in April, showing the late Kim Jong-il astride a rearing charger) and its government buildings dolled up with Vegas levels of glitz. But this book takes us beyond the laughter to see the cost to the Korean people of this preening ideological environment. Public monuments and buildings in Pyongyang are illuminated at night, but private residences are largely dark. Artists aren't independent creators but cogs working in teams with hundreds of others to crank out propaganda images of the Kims. Official buildings may be constructed of lavish materials—quarried stone and solid-gold door pulls—but housing for "the masses" is made from pre-cast concrete that quickly begins to crack and leak. The $100 million cost of the mammoth Mangyongdae Schoolchildren's Palace (1989), notes Mr. Meuser drily, "exceeds the total monthly income of the entire working population of North Korea." No wonder this book carries a warning.

One day the regime will fall and democracy will come to North Korea. We can only hope that, when it does, the successor government will preserve the monumental, public, propagandistic Pyongyang in all its perverse glory. It would be a real tourist destination, the world's only totalitarian-kitsch theme park—a kind of lopsided Disneyworld—and an object lesson in what happens when art is hijacked by the state, and the individual is ground beneath the wheels of a repressive ideology.

—Mr. Gibson is the Journal's Leisure & Arts Features editor.

Progressos e retrocessos do comercio mundial: adivinhem as escolhas do Mercosul - Editorial Estadao

Rumo a um acordo EUA-Europa

27 de dezembro de 2012

Editorial O Estado de S.Paulo

 

Americanos e europeus podem começar em breve a negociação de um acordo comercial entre os dois mais importantes mercados do mundo. Representantes dos Estados Unidos e da União Europeia reuniram-se várias vezes neste ano para discussões preliminares. As trocas de bens e serviços entre os dois parceiros são estimadas em cerca de 700 bilhões (US$ 927 bilhões) e já são facilitadas por tarifas em geral muito baixas, com média inferior a 2%. Mas há espaço para um aumento considerável do comércio e para a ampliação de investimentos entre as duas maiores potências do Atlântico Norte. Enquanto isso, brasileiros e seus sócios do Mercosul ficam limitados a assistir de longe a mais um capítulo importante da integração econômica internacional.
Preferências comerciais entre Estados Unidos e União Europeia tornarão mais difícil o acesso de outros parceiros a esses mercados. Para os muito competitivos, como a China e outros exportadores dinâmicos, o prejuízo poderá ser limitado, mas o custo será provavelmente considerável para os demais. Além disso, alguns países pobres e alguns emergentes já têm acesso facilitado aos mercados europeus e esse benefício será quase certamente mantido.
Nos últimos dez anos a integração avançou em todo o mundo, com dezenas de acordos bilaterais, regionais e inter-regionais entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. O grande objetivo foi geralmente a expansão das oportunidades de comércio e de investimento, sem restrições ideológicas. O Mercosul foi uma exceção, sem pactos comerciais com as economias mais avançadas. Seus acordos de livre comércio foram celebrados com países da região e com uns poucos parceiros de fora, todos em desenvolvimento. Os entendimentos foram sempre liderados pelos dois maiores países do bloco, Brasil e Argentina, governados há mais de uma década por líderes populistas e com tendências terceiro-mundistas.
A primeira grande façanha desse terceiro-mundismo requentado e intelectualmente subdesenvolvido foi o abandono do projeto de criação da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (Alca). A façanha foi comandada pelos presidentes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva e Néstor Kirchner. O governo dos Estados Unidos contribuiu, no final da história, para a liquidação do plano, mas a dupla sul-americana já havia feito o suficiente para enterrar a Alca. Outros governos da América do Sul acabaram negociando regras de livre comércio com Washington. O Brasil, naturalmente, ficou fora das preferências concedidas nesses acordos.
A negociação entre Mercosul e União Europeia, iniciada em 1999, permanece emperrada. As discussões foram interrompidas em 2004 e retomadas em 2010, mas sem sucesso, apesar das renovadas declarações de interesse das duas partes. Os negociadores brasileiros e argentinos concentraram a atenção na abertura dos mercados agrícolas europeus, como se pouca ou nenhuma vantagem se pudesse obter para a exportação de bens manufaturados. Ao mesmo tempo, foram sempre muito tímidos na liberalização dos mercados do bloco para produtos industriais.
A tendência protecionista sempre foi mais forte do lado argentino, mas o governo brasileiro sempre cedeu a pressões desse tipo. Indústrias da Turquia e do Norte da África têm acesso facilitado ao mercado da União Europeia, mas os negociadores do Mercosul parecem ter desprezado, sempre, detalhes como esses. Comportaram-se, em geral, como se representassem economias exclusivamente agrícolas.
A presidente Dilma Rousseff tem mantido as linhas principais da diplomacia inaugurada por seu antecessor. Além de insistir na orientação terceiro-mundista, mantém a tolerância ao protecionismo argentino, altamente prejudicial à indústria brasileira, e aceita a liderança da presidente Cristina Kirchner na fixação de rumos para o Mercosul. A suspensão do Paraguai e a admissão da Venezuela bolivariana, num evidente golpe contra as regras do bloco, foram novas demonstrações, em 2012, do compromisso do lulismo-kirchnerismo com o atraso. No resto do mundo, governos mais adultos, como os da Europa e dos Estados Unidos, tentam multiplicar as oportunidades comerciais.

Dez coisas para fazer (rapidamente) antes que o mundo acabe (ops, o ano)...

10 Things to Do Before 2012 Ends

Shutterstock/altafulla

Jen Doll 

Atlantic Monthly,  December 26, 2012 

It has come to my attention that we are firmly, if temporarily, ensconced in that weird, limbo-esque time that exists between Christmas and New Year's Eve. It is Boxing Day, which means relatively little to many people in the United States, given that it's really more of a British holiday. And whether we're anglophiles or not, we are all doing different things today: We are scattered about, some of us working and some of us still vacationing, some of us with family and some of us having returned to our own peaceful individual abodes. We are a nation awaiting something new, that being the year 2013, which will be ours in just five days, give or take a few hours and depending on when you read this post. As we wait, there are plenty of things to do in this strange shelf-time that I will call the Great Barrier Holiday Reef. Far from being doldrum-ish, though, this is a great moment in our annual history! Take advantage, because you will never get this year back (we don't think, but what do we know?).
1. Make peace with where you are this very moment. Not to get all spiritual or whatever, but this time — this strange, snail-like slog through the last red-and-green piney-fresh gasps of the holidays — only comes around once a year. And while the days may be slow and snail-like, perhaps, there is also something soothing and more relaxing than usual about them. The gifts have been given, that tension is past. We're all sated on eggnog and cookies and maybe a little bit slower than usual; stakes are lower, it's not about "success," it's about getting through the day, whether it's at work or with family. We can put off our great ambitions and aspirations until the new year, and just get through this time in the state in which we currently reside, comfortably and pleasantly, knowing new things are just around the corner. That's kind of nice, isn't it? Also: naps.
2. Return unwanted holiday gifts. If you can't just sit back and watch a Law & Order marathon or drink coffee after coffee while reading the newspaper, you are the type of person who must do things. If you must do things, and you feel better doing "productive" things, we suggest you take a moment over the next five days to return the gifts you didn't like or appreciate and replace them with something a bit better. Sales are on! The time is now! And if you wait too long, things will get busy and hectic and you'll forget about those boring Banana Republic sweaters from Aunt Bernice you've stashed in the back of your closet and then one day you'll pull one out and wear it because you have nothing else clean and then it will be too late to exchange it. So, do it now.
3. Take down the tree. This is a matter of some debate — some people leave their arboreal holiday masterpieces up through the first week in January, others even later (we cannot stand by such behavior, but we also cannot judge it outright). Still, if you do have a tree up, now might be the best time to take it down, because, mark our words, things are going to get hectic come January 2, when we're all back at work and busy with school and doing the regular old things we do. Plus, there's a little bit of leeway this week, and also, maybe you've got some hardy family members around to help you out. Then again, if you want to keep your tree up, if you insist on it, even, you should at the very least sit and look at it and feel cheery for a few minutes each day.
4. Be nice to your family. Maybe it's been a longish bit of togetherness time for you all, and not everyone is in the best of moods, given that the presents have been opened and the guests have stayed at just about past the point of welcome. This is when you need to dig in and find extra resources and grin and bear it, people! Trust me, no one wants to start 2013 guilty, or in a fight with a close family member (and those are the ones who are bound to bug you the most, trust me again!). So, grin and bear it. Grin and bear it. Take long walks when the need arises. Go to bed early and get up late. It's the holidays, you're on vacation! Smile and hug and know that you'll be back to your regular life soon enough, and then you'll rather miss these people who are getting on your nerves so much (or so we hear, having never experienced even a whit of annoyance among our kin ourselves).
5. It's your last chance to get something on the 2012 tax-write-off list. It's a double-whammy for folks who like to plan ahead. If you, say, spill coffee on your laptop today and buy a new one before the start of the year, that deduction goes on your 2012 taxes! Not that we're saying to spill coffee on your laptop, but the point is, if you're the type who cares about such things, you've got five days to make the purchases you need to for your write-off purposes. Also, you should probably go ahead and make your tax appointment, too, especially if your guy or girl tends to get booked up fast. April is fast approaching. And while you're at it, why not get your free credit score rating, too? It's a great jumpstart for your social life.
6. Go do something "cultural" (experience your city)! Ah, the holidays in the city, any city! — think museums, think movies, think markets, think walking around and holding mittened hands and catching little wafers of snow upon your tongues as you look in shop windows and feel rosy-cheeked and vital. Check the weather, put on some warm socks and waterproof boots if you need to, and tromp around in the out of doors before things get wet and unpredictable. Head inside to look at art or something pretty, or to drink hot chocolate, warming your cold hands around the mug, before you go back outside to skate on ponds or try delicious hot crepes at outdoor food festivals or look at the amazing architecture and sky and trees or just, again, walk around and see the lights and other humans, all of you hopefully a little more smiley than usual, because walking around is nice in a town, especially at this time of year.
7. Finish that thing you meant to finish! What was it this year? A book? A puzzle? A piece of art you were making, a sweater you were knitting, a TV-miniseries you were watching? Take this moment and finish it, so you can start 2013 fresh and ready for new and exciting adventures.
8. Resolutions? We guess. I'm not a huge fan of old-school resolution making, like that one needs to quit smoking or stop drinking so much or be a better student this year, but there is something about saying what you want to do, setting a date to start, and then doing it. So if there are these lingering goals hanging out in your brain, things you really want to accomplish or stop accomplishing, it doesn't hurt to write 'em down and get a big boost on January 1 in terms of getting them done, too.
9. Make New Year's plans. Yep, get on that. Which is not to say stress out about it. New Year's Eve is a holiday that divides the pros from the amateurs, and the amateurs tend to go out and spend big bucks at crowded places, or hang out in Times Square or other hectic environs filled with boisterous intoxicated types, while the pros sip their prosecco in a civilized fashion and wonder why. Neither of these behaviors is wrong, exactly; like all things, you need only admit which type you are and act accordingly. If you are the "amateur" and you don't yet have plans, make them! Anything goes, as long as it comes with the words "prix fixe" or "confetti" or "house party" or "ball drop." If you are the "pro" and you don't have plans, that is your plan. Set in some snacks and a good stock of booze and you'll be just fine.
10. Be briefly thankful that the world didn't end! Was it just a week ago we were worried about the supposed end of the world as we knew it via the Mayan calendar? Well, thank goodness that didn't happen. While you're at it, try something new in the few days left before we put on our 2013 glasses and ring in the new year in whichever way you see fit.
Insets via Flickr/writingortyping; Flickr/Simon Greig. Image via Shutterstock by altafulla.
Want to add to this story? Let us know in comments or send an email to the author at jdoll@theatlantic.com. You can share ideas for stories on the Open Wire.

New York, New York, coming up soon...

What to Expect in New York in 2013

Stephen Kroninger

By THE NEW YORK TIMES

Published: December 28, 2012

Introduction

Read more articles in this week's Metropolitan section.

Multimedia

What to Expect in New York in 2013

Connect with NYTMetro

Follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook for news and conversation.

Enlarge This Image

Stephen Kroninger

Enlarge This Image

Illustration by Stephen Kroninger; photo by Nathaniel Brooks for The New York Times

Enlarge This Image

Stephen Kroninger

If the phrase “annus horribilis” had not already worked its way into the language — thank you, Queen Elizabeth II — some New Yorker thinking deep, year-end thoughts would surely have coined it for 2012.

Not that everything went wrong, of course.

Fans were happy when Brooklyn got a new sports and entertainment center, not to mention a basketball team.

Subway passengers were happy when an underground connection opened between the No. 6 line at Bleecker Street and the B, D, F and M lines at the Broadway-Lafayette stop. It doesn’t take much.

Mitik, a baby walrus orphaned in Alaska, was happy when he brought his William Howard Taft good looks to the New York Aquarium. What, you don’t see the resemblance?

“Jersey Shore” was canceled. Enough said.

So what about 2013? In this feature, reporters from The Times’s Metro desk summarize the developments they expect to cover next year.

Predictions are as chancy as New Year’s resolutions, but some things are certain.

The subway fare will go up. (In March, to $2.50 a ride.) Large sugary sodas will disappear. (Also in March, unless a judge blocks the mayor’s ban.) Bike sharing will begin. (In May, unless the program is delayed yet again.) The Taxi of Tomorrow will go into service. (In December, unless it, too, takes the slow lane.)

In Albany, four men in a room will be making the decisions, not the customary three, because suddenly the State Senate will squeeze two leaders alongside Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver.

And the old year will cast a long shadow over the new.

Our memories of the twin calamities of 2012 — the school shootings in Newtown, Conn., and Hurricane Sandy — may fade, as memories do. But gun control is sure to be debated in 2013. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is promising to go nationwide with his crusade against illegal guns, spending his own millions to counter the gun lobby.

And low-lying neighborhoods will be rebuilt by hard-pressed homeowners, while task forces and commissions debate how to keep the city safe from the next monster storm.

Mayoral politics will dominate the local headlines. Mr. Bloomberg’s many would-be successors will not have the personal fortune he spent to win office ($174 per vote in 2009). Which of them will end up on the November ballot: Christine C. Quinn, the City Council speaker? Joseph J. Lhota, who is leaving the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to look into running as a Republican? Raymond W. Kelly, the police commissioner?

It is enough to make you think about buying a crystal ball. One smaller than the Wicked Witch of the West’s costs $1,000 at a shop on Centre Street in Chinatown, close enough to City Hall and Wall Street for policy makers and traders alike to stroll by at lunchtime.

If they did, the clerk behind the counter would tell them that a crystal ball feels fatigue from the energy that goes into predictions. You have to bring it back from time to time for something that, in a year like 2012, sounds singularly appropriate. “Deep cleaning,” she called it. — JAMES BARRON

Albany

When lawmakers return to the New York State Capitol in January, the first order of business for Albany’s three men in a room will be finding an extra chair.

For years, just three people — the governor, the Assembly speaker and the Senate majority leader — have made most major decisions in Albany, controlling the state budget and negotiating all major legislation. But in an unprecedented development, the Senate in the coming year is to be led by two men. So Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo; the speaker, Sheldon Silver, a Democrat; and the Republican Senate leader, Dean G. Skelos, will be joined by Jeffrey D. Klein, the leader of a schismatic group of dissident Senate Democrats who have pledged to share decision-making with the Republicans despite their ideological differences.

The leaders will confront a host of familiar issues, including a debate over whether to raise the minimum wage, a push to overhaul campaign-finance laws and a proposal to expand casino gambling.

But lawmakers also face two new problems, caused by recent crises. Hurricane Sandy severely damaged infrastructure in New York City and on Long Island, and its economic toll could further strain the state’s shaky finances. And this month, the mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., has brought the issue of gun control to the forefront.

Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, is planning to propose a package of new gun laws in his State of the State address in January. His proposals are likely to provide the first major test of the new Senate leadership arrangement, as Republicans in the chamber have traditionally resisted gun-control measures. — THOMAS KAPLAN

City Hall

Après Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, who?

That is the big question as Mr. Bloomberg concludes his 12th and final year at City Hall, though voters will have other choices to make in 2013, as well. Openings are likely for a new comptroller, a new public advocate, four new borough presidents and about two dozen new City Council members, thanks to term limits or bids for other offices.

In the mayor’s race, the strong favorite two years ago was Representative Anthony D. Weiner. But a “sexting” scandal prompted Mr. Weiner to resign. Then the city comptroller, John C. Liu, emerged as a dark-horse pick. But a campaign fund-raising scandal damaged his prospects. Then came a flurry of rumors involving everyone from Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly to former Gov. Eliot Spitzer to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, back to Mr. Weiner again.

Such speculation hints at a general unease among some political insiders regarding the current slate of expected candidates. After all, the next mayor will face knotty issues in finance, labor, education and other areas.

Among Democrats, the likely leading candidates are Christine C. Quinn, the City Council speaker, whose base includes pro-Bloomberg Democrats; William C. Thompson Jr., a former comptroller, whose base includes African-Americans; and Bill de Blasio, the public advocate, whose base includes labor groups. (Mr. Liu is also likely to run.)

Among Republicans, the front-runner could be Joseph J. Lhota, who is stepping down as chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to explore a bid. Others running or considering running include Adolfo Carrión Jr., a former Bronx borough president; John A. Catsimatidis, who owns the Gristedes supermarket chain; Tom Allon, a newspaper publisher; and George T. McDonald, the president of the Doe Fund.

For now, at least. — DAVID W. CHEN

Congress

The Congressional delegations from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut face at least one daunting challenge. So far, the governors from these storm-battered states have identified about $82 billion in damage resulting from Hurricane Sandy. As the new year approaches, the region’s lawmakers in Washington have been focused on trying to pass a $60.4 billion aid package and getting the money flowing.

The concern among the senators and representatives is that as the storm fades from memory, Congress will feel less compelled to confront its consequences fully. This means that New York, New Jersey and Connecticut could end up being shortchanged, with Washington ultimately providing far less than the states say they need to rebuild and prepare for future storms.

The coming year will also offer plenty of political intrigue — at least for members of New Jersey’s Congressional delegation. Fellow Democrats from New Jersey to Washington have increasingly wondered whether Senator Frank R. Lautenberg, 88, will retire at the end of his current term. Several prominent New Jersey Democrats — including Mayor Cory A. Booker of Newark and Representative Frank Pallone Jr., a 13-term congressman from Monmouth County — have expressed clear interest in running for his seat in 2014. But at the same time, no one wants to do anything to antagonize Mr. Lautenberg, a proud and strong-willed man who some Democrats believe may try to hold on to his seat if he believes he is being pushed out before he is ready to go. — RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

Courts

Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, is up for re-election for the first time, in 2013. His first term saw a lot of attention focused on two difficult cases: the dropped prosecution of Dominique Strauss-Kahn and the acquittal of two city police officers on rape charges. But Mr. Vance was given credit in The New York Law Journal for significantly increasing the office’s felony conviction rate since taking the job. He has also ramped up his office’s attempts to prosecute white-collar crime, a category dominated by federal prosecutors. He is running unopposed so far in an office that has historically granted tremendous electoral benefits to the incumbent.

In Brooklyn, meanwhile, Charles J. Hynes, the district attorney, will face at least two opponents in the Democratic primary in the new year. Kenneth P. Thompson, a prominent trial lawyer and former federal prosecutor, and Abe George, a former assistant district attorney in Manhattan, have announced they are challenging him. Mr. Hynes has been in office more than 20 years, but he has recently come under fire for failing to investigate sexual abuse claims in ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities and for his office’s mishandling of cases that sent innocent people to prison.

The city’s courts will see many high-profile trials, including Mr. Vance’s prosecution of Pedro Hernandez in the killing of Etan Patz, the 6-year-old boy who disappeared on his way to a SoHo bus stop in 1979.

After decades during which other suspects were investigated, Mr. Hernandez made a surprise confession to prosecutors and the police last spring. But his lawyer said the confession was the byproduct of mental illness, and Mr. Hernandez has recanted. It appears no other evidence has emerged, so the trial could hinge on whether a jury believes the videotaped confession.

There could be a rare death-penalty trial in Federal District Court in Brooklyn this coming year. Ronell Wilson was convicted of killing two undercover police officers and sentenced to death in 2007. But an appellate court tossed out the sentence — though not the conviction — because of a prosecutor’s error. Now the federal government is bringing another case arguing for Mr. Wilson’s death; it will revisit the gruesome details that shocked the city several years ago, unless a judge rules that Mr. Wilson is mentally disabled and not subject to capital punishment.

Manhattan’s Federal District Court will also see prosecutions in political corruption and terrorism cases.

Two allies of John C. Liu, the city comptroller, are scheduled for trial in February in what prosecutors say was an illegal campaign-finance scheme. The defendants, Jia Hou, Mr. Liu’s former campaign treasurer, and Xing Wu Pan, a fund-raiser, have pleaded not guilty. Mr. Liu, a Democrat, has not been charged with wrongdoing.

Larry B. Seabrook, a former councilman, is to be sentenced in January for orchestrating a scheme to use a network of nonprofit groups to funnel hundreds of thousands of dollars in city money to relatives, friends and a girlfriend.

Three defendants extradited from Britain face trial in terrorism cases later in the year. Mostafa Kamel Mostafa, an Islamic preacher, has been charged with conspiring in a 1998 kidnapping of American and other tourists in Yemen; and two other men are charged with conspiring in Al Qaeda’s 1998 bombings of two United States Embassies in East Africa, attacks that killed more than 200 people. All three have pleaded not guilty.

In another widely watched case, Mansour J. Arbabsiar, an Iranian-American who pleaded guilty in a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States, is scheduled to be sentenced in February.

And then there is the bizarre case of Gilberto Valle, a New York City police officer who faces trial next month in a plot to kidnap, cook and eat women; he has pleaded not guilty.

— RUSS BUETTNER, MOSI SECRET and BENJAMIN WEISER

Development

Will 2013 be the year that some of the city’s most prominent corporations decide to relocate, prompting the development of new skyscrapers in Midtown and downtown Manhattan?

The Durst Organization and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey are still hunting for tenants for 1 World Trade Center, and the developer Larry Silverstein will be forced to stop construction on 3 World Trade Center unless he comes up with a tenant soon. His other tower at the site, 4 World Trade Center, could be finished by the end of the year.

The Related Companies is also looking for a major corporate tenant for Hudson Yards, for its second big office tower. That would allow the company to begin building a platform over the rail yard, a shopping mall, a cultural institution and several residential towers. The No. 7 subway extension may have a long-promised ribbon-cutting ceremony in December, but the public probably won’t be able to travel through it until the following spring.

In Brooklyn, the first of 15 residential towers is under construction at Atlantic Yards. In Queens, the Related Companies and Monadnock Construction are expected to break ground shortly on Hunters Point South, which promises to be the largest affordable-housing complex nationally in more than three decades.

The city is rushing to complete the “Midtown East” rezoning while Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg remains in office, which would allow developers to build skyscrapers near Grand Central Terminal. The administration is also trying to revamp plans for Willets Point, Queens, to allow a major shopping mall next to CitiField, rather than the “next great neighborhood” that the mayor once promised.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo will have to be much more specific in the new year about his plans for bringing full-scale casino resorts to New York if he wants to continue to get approval by the State Legislature. One of the big questions is whether a casino will be permitted in Manhattan, a dream for Las Vegas gambling operators. Expect tens of millions to be spent on lobbying campaigns for and against. — CHARLES V. BAGLI

Economy

Even before Hurricane Sandy blew through, it was clear that the next year would be about rebuilding.

The metropolitan area’s economy has not recovered fully from the long recession. Construction has not resumed its old pace. And the big banks on Wall Street have been cutting thousands of jobs as they restructure for a period of slow growth.

Now, the region is waiting for tens of billions of dollars in aid from the federal government to repair the damage that the storm caused to transit lines, bridges and boardwalks. The sooner Congress approves that financing, the sooner it will set off a burst of activity and create hundreds, and possibly thousands, of new jobs.

The stimulative effect could be enough to shake the local economy out of the doldrums that it slipped into in the second half of 2012. After outperforming the rest of the nation in the bounce-back from the recession, New York City has seen its recovery start to sputter.

By November, the annual growth rate of private-sector jobs in the city had slowed to 2 percent, just a little higher than the national rate, 1.8 percent. Wall Street has been no help: the securities industry, which has traditionally pulled New York out of recessions by hiring and paying big bonuses, shrank slightly in 2012.

And sometime in 2013, the city’s stature as the world’s capital of finance is due to take another blow when a company based in Atlanta, Intercontinental Exchange, completes its takeover of the New York Stock Exchange. — PATRICK McGEEHAN

Education

The Bloomberg administration has one more year to remake the city’s school system.

Undoubtedly among the goals: working to get new charter schools approved; closing and reopening as many poorly performing schools as possible; and trying to see a new teacher-evaluation system approved and put in place. Much of the work will hinge on relations with the New York City teachers’ union.

As the 2013 mayoral race comes to a boil, Exhibit A in any candidate’s case for educational clout will be the endorsement of the union’s president, Michael Mulgrew. The United Federation of Teachers stayed mum in the last two mayoral contests and is feuding with City Hall over several issues, including teacher performance and charter schools. But events are queued up for a natural pairing this time, maybe even ahead of the Democratic primary: the union has no contract, and would-be successors to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg thirst for the financial and electoral support of its 200,000 members.

Teachers, parents and others can expect Hurricane Sandy’s impact to reach into 2013, with damaged schools, displaced students and school days to make up — three full days scheduled in February and a half-day in June. How storm-related absences affect pupils’ grades is just one factor, along with new curriculum standards called Common Core, which many expect will be a drag on test results for students in the third through eighth grades, who will sit for the state’s standardized math and English exams in the spring.

And as officials push remaining bits of the Bloomberg administration’s education agenda, observers will be on the lookout for top administrators at the Education Department to begin peeling off for the private sector. — AL BAKER

Environment

After more than four years of increasingly polarizing debate, New York is poised to decide whether to allow drilling for natural gas in the Marcellus Shale using the extraction process known as fracking. That decision had been expected in 2012 but was postponed pending further study of the potential impact of drilling on the environment and public health. State regulators are now scheduled to complete their environmental review and proposed regulations by February. Then Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, considering both environmental concerns and the jobs that the gas industry would provide, is expected to say whether New York will approve fracking, and under what conditions. (A decision to go forward would surely set off litigation from environmental groups, which could mean further delays.)

In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, state and city officials have convened commissions and task forces to plan for future storms. These groups will consider measures like strengthening the building code and installing sea gates to block storm surges. Also under study is an overhaul of storm response and preparation by the state’s power utility companies, and toughening the city’s aging transportation infrastructure.

Efforts to contain the harmful effects of climate change may also gather urgency. New York is one of nine Northeastern and mid-Atlantic states in the cap-and-trade system known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which participants say has succeeded in lowering emissions and funneling millions of dollars to energy-efficiency programs. A crucial decision facing the states in 2013 is whether to set a stricter ceiling on carbon dioxide emissions from electric power providers.

— MIREYA NAVARRO

Health

It may seem as if Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s soda ban has already begun, because the debate has been so noisy. But restrictions on the sale of sugary drinks of more than 16 ounces in movie theaters, restaurants, stadiums and other places will actually go into effect in March, barring a successful legal challenge. The city’s health department will then be able to study whether forcing people to drink smaller portions will bear out the theories of Dr. Thomas A. Farley, the health commissioner, who believes that changing the environment is the best way to change behavior.

The four New York City hospitals that were hit hardest by Hurricane Sandy — Bellevue Hospital Center, the country’s oldest public hospital; Coney Island Hospital, also a public hospital with a mission to serve the poor; NYU Langone Medical Center, a prominent academic medical center; and the Manhattan hospital operated by the Department of Veterans Affairs — will be phasing in full services, if all goes according to plan. And residents affected by the storm will continue to worry about the consequences to their health, both mental and physical.

The September 11th Victim Compensation Fund will begin making awards. And the Affordable Care Act will continue to kick in, with consequences for New Yorkers. The law’s newly created insurance exchanges, state markets that are supposed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to afford health insurance, will begin enrollment in the fall. Hospitals expect to benefit from an increase in patients covered by insurance, which may help to buoy some faltering institutions.  

— ANEMONA HARTOCOLLIS

Hurricane Recovery

For many New Yorkers who live in Flood Zone A — areas like the edges of Staten Island, the Rockaway Peninsula in Queens and Coney Island and Red Hook in Brooklyn — life will continue to be defined by Hurricane Sandy well into 2013.

Residents will find that rebuilding is far more than a matter of picking up hammers and nails. They will have to grapple with enormous questions of how to rebuild — quickly or with an eye to a future storm — and for many that decision will be dictated by outside factors. Homeowners may find themselves stymied by banks reluctant to give loans for homes situated in harm’s way, and by soon-to-be redrawn flood maps, which may make it too costly, or even impossible, to get insurance in some areas.

Even as they address the physical challenge of rebuilding storm-damaged homes, schools and streets, many will also be weighing a monumental question: Should they stay or go? The year ahead may bear witness to demographic changes in areas affected by the storm as some people give up and others — smelling opportunity — swoop in. — SARAH MASLIN NIR

Immigration

In the realm of immigration, New York City has often appeared to be dancing to its own tune. As other parts of the country have clamped down on immigrant populations, the city’s elected officials, led by a pro-immigrant mayor, have thrown open the door even wider to the foreign-born, regardless of immigration status.

Immigrants make up more than one-third of the city’s population, and their numbers will likely continue to grow. The city will continue to offer an extraordinarily wide array of immigrant services intended to help ease assimilation. And more of the country may start to follow New York’s lead.

After President Obama won 71 percent of the Latino vote, he said he would make the comprehensive overhaul of the nation’s immigration system — in particular, a bill to legalize 11 million illegal immigrants — one of the first items on his agenda in the coming year. Since the election, Republicans leaders have urged their party to adopt a new posture toward immigrants and to support some sort of legislation to fix illegal immigration. There is no telling whether they will achieve their goals. But as this debate gathers momentum in the new year, New York will find itself with plenty of new company on the dance floor. — KIRK SEMPLE

New Jersey

Democrats had been spoiling for a heavyweight fight: Booker vs. Christie. But even with Cory A. Booker, the mayor of Newark, out of the ring, Gov. Chris Christie’s re-election bid will still be the state’s big story in the new year.

New Jersey is one of only two states to have regular elections for governor in 2013. Mr. Christie’s popularity soared, even among Democrats, after Hurricane Sandy. And as Mr. Booker weighed his options, Mr. Christie was able to win a big labor endorsement — even after cutting public union benefits soon after he came into office.

But Democrats note that the share of voters who said they would re-elect Mr. Christie topped out at 53 percent after the storm, and was below 50 percent before his fleece became famous. The state has roughly 700,000 more Democrats than Republicans. And Mr. Christie oversees a grim economy: the unemployment rate, at 9.6 percent, is still about 2 points higher than it is nationally, and it is among the country’s highest.

Rating agencies have warned that the governor’s budget is structurally unsound: He bet on 8.4 percent economic growth for the current fiscal year, but even before the storm, it was coming in at about 0.1 percent, with especially sluggish income- and sales-tax revenues. That will force ugly, midcycle budget cuts starting in January, as the sunny governor set aside relatively little in the state’s rainy-day fund.

The question is which Democrats dare challenge him. Raising the money to run is daunting. Mr. Christie will be able to pull in donations from national Republicans, who are not likely to sit idly while one of their most promising presidential contenders fights for his political future. — KATE ZERNIKE

Parks

The city’s parks will continue their recovery from Hurricane Sandy, which caused them an estimated $540 million in damage. Particularly devastated were the beaches in the Rockaways in Queens, where two-thirds of the five-mile Boardwalk was torn from its concrete stanchions.

But the new year will also see several long-awaited openings.

In Prospect Park in Brooklyn, the $74 million Lakeside project will finally open in late fall. It will feature two ice rinks and a cafe overlooking the park’s scenic lake. In the summer, one rink will double as a water playground, while the other will become a roller rink.

In Brooklyn Bridge Park, Pier 2 opens later in the year with courts for basketball, handball and bocce. In addition, there will be a full in-line skating rink, a swing set, concessions and bathrooms.

Also in Brooklyn, a historic Coney Island carousel, the only survivor of two dozen wooden carousels that once whirled there, will reopen by summer. The 1919 B&B Carousell, which the city acquired in 2005, has been undergoing a restoration for years in Ohio. It will be placed in a newly constructed pavilion building under the Parachute Jump in Steeplechase Plaza.

In Central Park, Tavern on the Green, which closed three years ago after 75 years in business, is expected to reopen in the fall. The city is restoring the building, at Central Park West and 67th Street, to its smaller, historic footprint. Two restaurateurs from Philadelphia will operate the new place, which will be more casual than the old Tavern, catering to parkgoers and neighborhood residents. But it will serve up serious fare by the chef Katy Sparks, whose résumé includes Bobby Flay’s Mesa Grill, Quilty’s and the Quilted Giraffe. — LISA W. FODERARO

Police

Coming off a year of historic lows in the city’s murder rate and undeniable highs in his job-approval ratings among residents, Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly will be a hot topic in 2013: Will he stay or go once a new mayor is crowned? And if he goes, who will step in to replace him? One name that will almost certainly resurface is that of former Police Commissioner William J. Bratton, who is now chairman of Kroll, a security consulting firm.

Regardless of whether 2013 is his final year as commissioner, Mr. Kelly will seek to cement his legacy as an aggressive crime fighter who made New York City safer. To do so, he must continue to drive down violent crime in 2013, or at least hold the line on 2012’s murder rate. So Mr. Kelly is not likely to pull back on the department’s “stop, question and frisk” practices or hot-spot policing strategies like Operation Impact, in which rookie officers, paired with veterans, are deployed strategically to neighborhoods seeing surges in crime. That will mean more news articles detailing friction between Mr. Kelly and civil rights leaders who believe officers unfairly target black and Latino residents for street stops.

Readers should also look for articles examining the balance between privacy and public safety as the Police Department continues to harness new technology to combat global terrorism, drug and weapons trafficking, and sex crimes. It is a good bet that 2013 will be peppered with news about how cybersleuthing solved or thwarted crimes. — WENDY RUDERMAN

Transportation

What may be the most anticipated development in the city’s transit system in 2013 was supposed to have happened in 2012. In May, the Transportation Department says, the city’s long-awaited bike-share program will finally begin. Originally planned for July 2012, the program was delayed: first by software problems, and then by flood damage to its equipment during Hurricane Sandy. When the bikes do start rolling, look for renewed debate over the viability of cycling as a public-transportation option in the city — a linchpin of the Bloomberg administration’s curbside legacy.

Another Bloomberg initiative, a near-uniform cab fleet filled with so-called Taxis of Tomorrow, is also slated to begin before the mayor leaves office. The vehicle, a Nissan NV200, is expected to be phased in over three to five years starting in late 2013, supplying riders with phone chargers, transparent roof panels and “lower annoyance” horns, the city said. The vehicle has been criticized for not being a hybrid, or wheelchair-accessible without modifications.

For subway, bus and railroad riders, the nation’s largest transportation network will begin 2013 without a long-term leader, as Joseph J. Lhota, the chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, steps down to explore a run for New York City mayor. His replacement will face a spate of difficult decisions in 2013, particularly concerning how to rebuild the system in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Officials have said to expect regular train service to the Rockaways in Queens to return by the spring. But it would be a surprise if the South Ferry station in Lower Manhattan reopened in 2013. — MATT FLEGENHEIMER

Photographs within illustrations: John C. Liu: Marilynn K. Yee/The New York Times; William C. Thompson Jr.: Richard Perry/The New York Times; Bill de Blasio and Joseph J. Lhota: Ángel Franco/The New York Times; Michael R. Bloomberg: Michael Appleton for The New York Times; Christine C. Quinn: Suzanne DeChillo/The New York Times; Andrew M. Cuomo: Nathaniel Brooks for The New York Times

A version of this article appeared in print on December 30, 2012, on page MB6 of the New York edition with the headline: New York in 2013.

Metas de inflacao: RIP (descansem em paz...) - Alexandre Schwartsman

A bola torta

Alexandre Schwartsman

Blog A Mão Vísivel, quarta-feira, dezembro 26, 2012  Alex  29 comentários

Na semana passada o Banco Central, seguindo os rituais associados ao nosso finado regime de metas para a inflação, divulgou seu Relatório de Inflação, publicação trimestral que, em outros tempos, foi o principal canal de comunicação da autoridade monetária com o público. Naquela época analistas vasculhavam cuidadosamente o Relatório, em particular as previsões do Copom sobre a evolução esperada dos preços, variável crucial para as decisões de política monetária.

Nos dias de hoje as previsões do BC atraem bem menos atenção. Em parte, talvez a principal parte, porque é mais do que claro que elas deixaram de guiar as taxas de juros determinadas pelo Copom. Em mais de uma instância, mesmo prevendo inflação acima da meta e crescente, o BC simplesmente ignorou suas próprias projeções e persistiu na trajetória de redução da taxa de juros. Por este lado não deveria haver qualquer surpresa quanto ao fato do IPCA-15, uma medida antecipada do número oficial (o IPCA), ter atingido a bagatela de 5,8% em 2012, muito distante da meta de 4,5%.

(A propósito, bem me recordo da descrença acerca da minha previsão sobre a inflação atingir entre 5% e 5,5%, mais perto de 5,5% do que de 5%. Ironias da vida: quem diria que me revelei, na verdade, um otimista inveterado, apenas pouco melhor que o otimista invertebrado?).

Pode ser, porém, que a menor atenção devotada às previsões do BC reflita também ceticismo sobre a qualidade deste número, que tipicamente tem se mostrado muito mais otimista do que a Poliana que escreve estas mal traçadas.

De fato, em dezembro de 2009 o BC previu que a inflação em 2010 atingiria 4,6%; o número final foi 5,9%. Em 2010 a previsão oficial para 2011 indicava 5%, mas a inflação bateu 6,5%, o teto exato do intervalo de tolerância. Apesar disso em dezembro daquele ano o BC redobrou a aposta e prometeu a convergência para a meta, cravando 4,7% para a inflação de 2012, que, tudo indica, deverá ficar mesmo na casa de 5,8%, como adiantado pelo IPCA-15.

Em três anos consecutivos, pois, o BC errou por mais de um ponto percentual de diferença (o erro médio é de 1,3 ponto percentual). Diga-se, porém, que errar a previsão não é, a princípio, nenhuma grande vergonha, nem o principal tema da discussão.

Caso o BC tivesse por vezes superestimado a inflação e em outras oportunidades a subestimado diríamos que há problemas com a precisão das estimativas, mas não um viés. Afinal de contas, como se diz por aí (e eu, como economista, subscrevo entusiasticamente), fazer previsões é um negócio complicado, ainda mais sobre o futuro.

Na prática, porém, o que se observa são erros para um lado só: a subestimação sistemática da inflação. No primeiro caso diríamos que a bola de cristal do BC está embaçada, como de resto a de todos nós economistas; já no segundo, eu diria que a bola de cristal do BC não está prevendo, mas torcendo, o que é muito diferente.

Não é por acaso, portanto que, quando o BC projeta que a inflação será 4,8% em 2013 (ou mesmo quando promete apenas que será inferior à observada em 2012) tanto economistas como pessoas normais (a distinção é intencional) encarem a promessa com visível incredulidade, expressa, por exemplo, na previsão consensual de mercado para a inflação na casa de 5,5% para o ano que vem (embora eu acredite que será ainda mais alta).

A triste verdade é que o BC perdeu o controle do processo inflacionário ao perder as rédeas sobre as expectativas. Caso ache que vai segurá-las por meio de previsões excessivamente otimistas acerca da trajetória da inflação está em vias de sofrer um desapontamento amargo. Se quiser recuperar a mão o passo inicial é reconhecer a extensão do problema, postura muito diferente da que encontramos no Relatório de Inflação e na comunicação do BC em geral.

Apesar disso, feliz 2013!

"Para 2014, a projeção encontra-se em torno do valor central da meta em ambos os cenários"

(Publicado 26/Dez/2012)

As religioes do mundo - The Economist

Daily chart

Faiths and the faithless

The Economist, Dec 18th 2012, 14:45 by Economist.com

The world's religious make-up
RELIABLE data on the age and whereabouts of the religious and irreligious are hard to come by, which makes a new report on the topic from the Pew Research Centre welcome. Among its many findings is that Jews and Buddhists make the biggest religious minorities, in the sense of living in a country where another religion is dominant. Asia has by far the largest number of people who claim not to believe in any religion, something that is explained by China's official godlessness. Despite this, though, China has the world's seventh-largest Christian population, estimated at 68m. The report also contains data on people who call themselves religious but do not adhere to any of the Abrahamic religions, Hinduism or Buddhism. Here again Asia is dominant, largely thanks to the popularity of Shintoism in Japan.

.