The Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.
ou A GRANDE PARANOIA AMERICANA
Paulo Roberto de Almeida; Graham Allison
A inacreditável PARANOIA da academia americana
Depois de descrever toda a COMPLEMENTARIDADE ECONÔMICA entre os Estados Unidos e a China, com todos os vínculos econômicos de integração comercial, industrial e financeira, esse acadêmico, tido por brilhante intelectual, ainda classifica essa relação como sendo a de uma GRANDE RIVALIDADE ECONÔMICA, o que é propriamente alucinante.
Eles ainda se referem à GRANDE RIVALIDADE MILITAR – que eles mesmos incitam, propagam e desenvolvem – e à GRANDE RIVALIDADE TECNOLÓGICA, como se não pudesse existir competição e avanços, relativos e absolutos, em outros países, e que APENAS os EUA têm o direito de definir o que é COMPETIÇÃO e o que é RIVALIDADE. Eles pretendem medir o mundo de acordo com a sua régua, caolha, deformada, absolutamente unilateral. Que grande mal estão fazendo ao mundo!
Esses acadêmicos foram contaminados pelo vírus da paranoia aguda dos generais do Pentágono, que entre ele é endêmico, natural e esperado, mas que de vez em quando tem brotes epidêmicos, quando surge algum novo competidor estratégico, que nem poderia ser caracterizado como sendo um rival e muito menos um adversário tecnológico – digamos, um imitador por vezes ousado demais – ou militar, o que só revela a paranoia arrogante do grande império da atualidade.
Lamento pelo mundo, e pelos países pobres, que continuarão pobres por muito tempo mais, já que os impérios da atualidade continuarão a torrar o dinheiro dos seus contribuintes com brinquedinhos militares que JAMAIS serão usados.
Os relatórios citados estão aqui:
1) The Great Economic Rivalry: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/great-economic-rivalry-china-vs-us
2) The Great Military Rivalry: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/great-military-rivalry-china-vs-us
3) The Great Tech Rivalry: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/great-tech-rivalry-china-vs-us
Lamento pelos contribuintes americanos, e lamento mais ainda pela sua academia...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
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The Great Economic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.
Who is the manufacturing workshop of the world? Who is the major trading partner of most nations, including the EU and Japan? Who is the exporter of the most essential links in the global supply chain? Who is the top foreign supplier of goods to the United States? According to the yardstick that both the CIA and IMF judge the best for comparing national economies, who has the largest economy in the world today? If you hesitated before answering any of these questions, you will find the Harvard China Working Group’s new report, The Great Economic Rivalry, bracing. The report documents what has actually happened in the economic competition between China and the U.S. since 2000. Two decades ago, China was still classified as a “poor, developing country,” struggling to be admitted to the WTO. 460 million of its citizens lived below the abject poverty line of $2 a day; China’s GDP was less than one-tenth of what it is today. Back then, the answer to most of the questions in the first paragraph was: USA. The big takeaway from this report mirrors the findings of the earlier reports in our “Great Rivalry” series: The Great Military Rivalry and the The Great Tech Rivalry. In one line: the days in which China could be thought of as a “near peer competitor” – as Washington keeps trying to call it – are over. China’s miracle economic growth over the past four decades at an average rate four times that of the U.S. has redefined the global economic order. Today and for the foreseeable future, China will be a full-spectrum peer competitor. What about the future? Will China continue growing at twice or more the rate of the U.S. in the decade ahead? Given the storm clouds on the horizon, most of the current American press and commentariat answer “no”. But examining the bets made this past year by the CEOs of America’s most valuable corporation (Apple), largest asset manager (BlackRock), and most successful automaker (Tesla), the answer for each is clearly “yes”. The concluding section of our report summarizes the main factors cited by those who have reached opposing conclusions and invites the reader to make his or her own bet. For disagreements and debate about the report, see the recent JFK Jr. Forum – “The Economic Olympics: Can China Win Gold?” – where I hosted Larry Summers, Keyu Jin, and Kelly Sims Gallagher. While Larry remains bearish on China’s prospects, Jin reminds us that “the Chinese government is one of the most adaptive governments in the world, with the ability to readjust its policies in ways that other governments don’t enjoy, including the U.S.” If you have reactions, I’ll be interested to hear from you. Graham Allison |
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