O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

segunda-feira, 18 de abril de 2022

Mariupol: a cidade martir da Ucrânia, hoje parecida com Stalingrad - Adam Tooze (Chartbook 114)

 

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Chartbook #114: Azovstal - Mariupol's final battlefield

The vast complex of the steel mill of Azovstal is where the last defenders of Mariupol are making their stand. 

What kind of place is this? A giant steel works sprawling over several square kilometers. It has tunnels in which the fighters are withstanding the bombardment. But how did it end up there? What brought us to this point of a factory fight in Southern Ukraine? 

At moments like this, history truly reveals its quality as a pal·imp·sest - a manuscript or piece of writing on which the original writing has been effaced to make room for later writing but of which traces remain. The search functions of the internet reinforce that quality, constantly surfacing long-forgotten pieces from a different era.

Google “Avostal”. You find this. From 1973 - the high-Soviet era. 

A MOST IMPORTANT PROJECT OF THE THIRD, DECISIVE YEAR THE COUNTRY'S MOST POWERFUL 3600 MILL OF THE AZOVSTAL' PLANT HAS PRODUCED THE FIRST SHEET Ya. Brodskii 

Brodskii, writing in 1973 is already writing a history, looking back to the moment of Azovstal’s foundation in 1933:

This was long ago - 40 years ago, during the years of the first five-year plans, years of romanticism and heroism, years that gave rise to the Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine, Kuznetsk, Dniepr hydroelectric station, Ural Heavy Machinery Plant... A country was being built, a country was being created. The words “first," “first-born" were the most widespread at this unforgetable time. "First steel,* “first plant," "first tractor !" We leaf through the pages of the newspapers of the 1930's-- these stern and impassioned chronicles of our life. 

"Magnitogorsk-- express telegram- on February 1 at 7:30 p.m. blast furnace No. 1 of the Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine produced the first pig iron."

Knznetsk, April i. The incandescent blast is producing the first Kuznetsk metal. ~ 

"Makeevka, January 28. The first Soviet blooming mill passed the test perfectly." …

So many ~firsts" appeared at that time … The first Soviet pig iron, tractors, blooming mills, steel, and automobiles were born in the foothills of the Ural mountains, in the spurs of Alatau, and on the shores of the Dniepr. 

Azovstal' Plant-'SouthernMagnitogorsk" as it was called by people who arrived to build this metallurgical giant- rightfully numbers among the first-born of Soviet industry. The resolution of the Central Committe of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (Bolsheviks) on August 8, 1929, called for the immediate development of a plan for using Ketch ores and in connection with this the construction of plants in the Azov region. This resolution gave rise to the design and construction of the Azovstal' Plant. … Tens of thousands of builders from Russia, Belorussia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan arrived at the shores of the Azov Sea to erect one of the countries most powerful metallurgical enterprises, the Azovstal' Plant. 

Ya. Gugel', who a year before had constructed the Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine, directed the project. Every day brought news about the feats of labor of the builders. Record after record was established by the concrete workers, diggers, carpenters, and assemblers. And there, on August 10, 1933, the enormous bright red banner of the KIM (Communist Youth International), raised by the assemblers of Stepan Zumadzhi's brigade, flew in the night sky above the top of the first blast furnace. And several hour later, at 3:44 a.m., the order was given to blow in the furnace. Thus began the life of still another first-born of Soviet industry. This was long ago, 40 years ago … And here, today, four decades later, we again speak about the heroic labor on the shores of the Azov Sea. 

1930s USSR - Chief of Newly Built AZOVSTAL METALLURGICAL (Steel) PLANT

To imagine Azovstal’s birth, consult Stephen Kotkin’s Magnetic Mountain: Stalinism as a Civilization, the classic study of Magnitogorsk, which, according to legend, was inspired by taking office hours with Michel Foucault during a visit to Berkeley. 

Azovstal was not the first steelworks at Mariupol (the city was renamed Zhdanov during the Stalinist era, after its most famous son). That honor belongs to the Ilych Metallurgical Complex (MIMC). As an anniversary piece noted: 

The IMC enterprise was started on the basis of the works of the Nikopol’–Mariupol’ joint-stock company Providence. February 13, 1897, is considered the birthday of the IMC. On that day, the pipe shop produced its first real product, namely, pipes for laying the Baku–Batumi kerosene pipeline. In 1897, the openhearth furnaces and the rolling shops were put into operation. In 1898, the enterprise had already begun to operate according to the complete metallurgical cycle and it had become the largest works in the southern part of the Russian Empire. In 1914, for fulfilling largescale state orders, there had been put into operation a unique 4500 armoring rolling mill. After 1927, after nationalization and renewal, the works continued to develop as a polytechnical enterprise. In 1930, the first turn of the pipe-rolling shop, which had been the largest in Europe, was put into operation. During the years of the first 5-year plans, the works became the initiator and founder of rapid steelmaking practice; in 1935, it reached the first All-Union record in the steelmaking productivity; and in 1936, it achieved the world record in yield of steel from a square meter of the furnace hearth. In the prewar period, production of armor for the T-34 tank at the works, which played a noticeable role in winning the war with Germany, was perfected for the first time. 

First the railway, then grain export, then steelmaking transformed the sleepy ethnically and culturally-Greek enclave of Mariupol first into a bustling Imperial Russian boom town and then into a Soviet construction site. 

On Mariupol’s history the online Encylopedia of Ukraine is excellent. 

In the late 19th century Mariupol was developed as a shipping port for the Donets Basin. In 1882 it was linked with Donetsk by railway, and in 1886–9 the commercial port was built. The main exports were coal and grain. By 1900 the port was handling 1 million t of freight, and the tonnage doubled in the next decade. At the turn of the century a tube-rolling and two metallurgical plants were built (the Nikopol, in 1897 by the American businessmen Rothstein and Smith, and the Russian Providence, in 1899 by a Belgian company). Easy access to raw materials, labor, and a port for export were the main attractions. From that time the town's heavy industry grew rapidly.

From 1892 to 1897 the population of Mariupol almost doubled, from 17,000 to 31,100. By native tongue in 1897, the majority (63 percent) was Russian-speaking, followed by Yiddish (15 percent), Ukrainian (10 percent), Greek (5 percent), Turkish (3 percent) and Tatar (1 percent). By the beginning of the First World War the city’s population had jumped to 54,000.

As a later director of the Azovstal steelworks explained, what drew the people in was a peculiarly beneficial combination of raw materials:

The "Azovstal" Works makes use of the enormous deposits of phosphorus-containing Ketch ores which lie almost on the surface and are transported to the Works by the Azov sea after beneficiation and sintering, and of the Donets coal processed into high-grade coke at the coke and by-product plant. Limestone required for the blast furnace and the open-hearth furnace processes is obtained from the Elenovskie quarries, situated in the vicinity of the Works. Krivoi Rog ores are also employed in the blast-furnace charge. The Works is thus situated in the center of sources of raw materials

By 1939 under the impact of Soviet development, Mariupol’s population had surged to 227,000 - from 17,000 in 1892! 

In 1941, the German invaders killed the Jewish population they could find, ruined the town and on their retreat laid waste to the steel plants. The population by 1943 came to only 85,000. The devastation the Germans left behind was total.

huge heaps of tens of thousands of tons of stones, lumps of concrete, mutilated steel structures and equipment were !ying all over the Works. In September, 1943, there was no water, electricity or steam either in Mariupol or at the Works. Under those difficult conditions the metallurgists of the ~Azovstal" and the constructors of the ~Azovstalstroi ~ began the reconstruction of their Works, The seemingly impossible task was accomplished with the help of the strong will and the courageous spirit of the Soviet people. In October, 1944, the power station was rebuilt and in July, 1945, No. 8 blast furnace was blown in. 

The subequent reconstruction was dramatic, as V.V. Leporskii then plant director at Azovstal recalled in 1963.

A sintering mill, two blast-furnaces, six open-hearth furnaces, a large-capacity blooming mill, a rail-structural mill, a heavy grade mill, a ball-bearing mill, a mill for rail reinforcements, and others were built; the construction of housing, hospitals, schools, movie theatres, and culture palaces developed extensively. Construction has proceeded at a rapid pace. The 1940 level of production of iron and steel has now been exceeded several times; labor productivity per worker has increased by 4.7 times throughout the plant. The plant has been a profitable installation since 1960. …. In 1962 a collective of innovators of the plant won first place in the district competition, and in the All-Union contest in 1962 for introducing inventions the plant "Azovstal' " won third place. The cadres grow and improve with the plant. This year over 5 thousand persons are enrolled in institutes, technical schools, schools for advanced training, and industrial-technical courses. 

As its workforce became more and more sophisticated, in 1973, the plant was celebrating the introduction of the first computer-controlled processes. 

Computers, according to a prescribed program, monitor the heating of the slabs and control the operation of the stands and heat treatment of the sheet. In the future computers will be connected to the automatic production control system of the entire Azovstal' Plant which is being created.

Source: COURSE OF THE AZOVSTAL ~ PLANT IN THE TENTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN A. M. Sedakov

The trail of Azovstal’s heroic commemoration goes cold in the 1980s and 1990s. As Kimitaka Matsuzato of Tokyo University explains in her excellent essay on Mairupol’s local politics, the city stagnated amidst the overindustrialization of the late Soviet period. 

In 1993, the sixtieth anniversary of the plant, V.A. Sakhno published an almost apologetic piecenoting:

The combine is now encountering problems in producing metal with prescribed properties. While the product mix is becoming more complex, Azovstal' is having difficulties obtaining charge materials of consistently high quality. The same holds for deoxidizers and alloying additions. It has also become necessary to significantly reduce energy consumption during steel production. At the same time, clients are demanding metal of higher quality

And then, the oligarchic power struggles of the Donbas broke loose. In November 1996 Mariupol’s two steelworks, long-time competitors, were suddenly merged into a single conglomerate. As the Steel Times reported, the local population were dumbfounded. 

Ukrainians 'taken aback' by Azovstal/Ilyitsh merger Steel Times; London Vol. 224, Iss. 11, (Nov 1996): 383.

By the early 2000s the owner of the former crown jewel of Soviet industrialism, Azovstal, was Rinat Akhmetov, perhaps the richest of Ukraine’s oligarchs and certainly one its toughest. As Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg’s columnist described it:

In early 2014,  Mariupol was a typical mid-sized post-Soviet industrial city, dominated by two major steelworks, both under the control of the country’s richest oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, and the port used to export their output. …. Backed by Akhmetov’s political clout and resources, the Party of Regions of then-president Viktor Yanukovych held sway. The population, including tens of thousands of Azov Greeks — descendants of the city’s 18th-century Orthodox Christian founders, resettled by Russia from still-independent, Muslim-run Crimea — was predominantly Russian-speaking and had little to do with Ukrainian ethnicity or culture.

In short, it was the kind of city that fit in nicely with semi-official plans by some Kremlin officials and ethnonationalist ideologues in Russia to create a separatist state called Novorossiya in eastern and southern Ukraine. During the chaotic spring of 2014, thousand-strong mobs hunted through the city for Ukrainian nationalists supposedly sent from the country’s west to suppress them, the city council building was seized by rebels who flew Russian flags from it, and a gun battle took place for the police headquarters. The post-revolutionary Ukrainian authorities were too weak to re-establish order quickly, and it fell to local irregulars, some of them ultranationalists with openly racist views and swastika tattoos, to fight off the Communists and pro-Russian activists who sought to make Mariupol, located in the Donetsk Region, part of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. ….

Somehow Mariupol avoided being taken by the separatists. ….

In early 2015, with the war in eastern Ukraine still in its active phase, the eastern suburb of Mariupol came under heavy shelling from the separatist side, and dozens of civilians died (Akhmetov stepped in with a large personal donation to repair the damaged infrastructure). That brought home to the residents that their city was now on the front line for the long term. But when a ceasefire negotiated in Minsk took effect later that year, the relative benefits of this status began to manifest themselves. With eastern Ukraine’s biggest city, Donetsk, under separatist control, Mariupol became the center of the region’s Ukrainian part, and the administrations of both Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskiy have sought to turn it into a showcase of what the Donbas could become under Ukrainian authority.

Akhmetov is a pivotal figure in Ukrainian politics. In 2021 an open trial of strength appeared to have begun with President Zelensky and the parliament. The Rada passed legislation threatening to crack down on oligarchs, raise taxes and railway fees. Akhmetov was accused by Zelensky of plotting a coup against him. 

With the invasion, however, Akhmetov has committed to the national cause. As CNN reports

Ukraine's richest man has pledged to help rebuild the besieged city of Mariupol, a place close to his heart where he owns two vast steelworks that he says will once again compete globally. For now, though, his Metinvest company, Ukraine's biggest steelmaker, has announced it cannot deliver its supply contracts and while his financial and industrial SCM Group is servicing its debt obligations, his private power producer DTEK "has optimised payment of its debts" in an agreement with creditors.

"Mariupol is a global tragedy and a global example of heroism. For me, Mariupol has been and will always be a Ukrainian city," Akhmetov said in written answers to questions from Reuters.

On Friday, Metinvest said it would never operate under Russian occupation and that the Mariupol siege had disabled more than a third of Ukraine's metallurgy production capacity.

Akhmetov praised President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's "passion and professionalism" during the war, seemingly smoothing relations after the Ukrainian leader last year said plotters hoping to overthrow his government had tried to involve the businessman.

Akhmetov called the allegation "an absolute lie" at the time.

"And the war is certainly not the time to be at odds... We will rebuild the entire Ukraine," he said, adding that he returned to the country on Feb. 23 and had been there ever since.

Akhmetov did not say where exactly he was, but that he had been in Mariupol on Feb. 16, the day some western intelligence services had expected the invasion to begin. "I talked to people in the streets, I met with workers...," he said.

"My ambition is to return to a Ukrainian Mariupol and implement our (new production) plans so that Mariupol-produced steel can compete in global markets as before."

"I am confident that, as the country's biggest private business, SCM will play a key role in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine," he said, citing officials as saying the damage from the war has reached $1 trillion.

"We will definitely need an unprecedented international reconstruction programme, a Marshall Plan for Ukraine," he said, in reference to the U.S. aid project that helped rebuild Western Europe after World War Two.

"I trust that we all will rebuild a free, European, democratic, and successful Ukraine after our victory in this war."

Whilst Akhmetov sees a future for Azovsteel as the site of yet another industrial renaissance this time under a Ukrainian Marshall Plan, in the tunnels of his factory, Ukrainian marines of the 36th brigade, a large number of Azov brigade combatants, soldiers from the 56th Infantry Brigade, as well as border guards and volunteer fighters are, to all appearances, preparing to fight to the last bullet. 

What they seem to be enacting is not the Marshall Plan, but something closer to Stalingrad.

sábado, 16 de abril de 2022

As leis da política (1999) - Roberto Campos (e José Guilherme Merquior)

 Impagáveis, as "definições"...


As leis da política

ROBERTO CAMPOS

O Globo, 19/12/1999


Era uma crespa noite de inverno londrino. Eu tinha convidado para um jantar na embaixada brasileira, ao fim dos anos 70, o grande filósofo liberal francês Raymond Aron e dois sociólogos radicados na Inglaterra, Ralf Dahendorf e Ernest Gellner, este último professor de José Guilherme Merquior, meu conselheiro de embaixada. Na curva do conhaque, quando filosofávamos sobre nominalismo, realismo e existencialismo, contei uma piada que Aron achou divertida. Era a definição de "realidade" dada por um irlandês, revoltado pela interrupção de suas libações alcoólicas à hora do fechamento dos "pubs". "A realidade é uma ilusão criada por uma aguda escassez de álcool", disse.

Quando partiram os hóspedes, resolvemos, Merquior e eu, em rodadas de uísque, testar duas coisas. Primeiro, a teoria irlandesa do realismo alcoólico. Segundo, nossa capacidade de recitarmos, de memória, aquilo que poderíamos chamar de "leis de comportamento sociopolítico" de variadas personagens e culturas. Alternávamos nas citações, que registrei num alfarrábio que outro dia desenterrei numa limpeza de arquivos. Ei-las:

A lei de Lênin: "É verdade que a liberdade é preciosa. Tão preciosa que é preciso racioná-la".

A lei de Stálin: "Uma única morte é uma tragédia; 1 milhão de mortes é uma estatística".

A lei de Krushev: "Os políticos em qualquer parte são os mesmos. Eles prometem construir pontes mesmo quando não há rios".

A lei de Henry Kissinger: "O ilegal é o que fazemos imediatamente. O inconstitucional é o que exige um pouco mais tempo".

A lei de Franklin Roosevelt: "Um conservador é um homem com duas excelentes pernas, que, contudo, nunca aprendeu a andar para a frente".

A lei de Lord Keynes: "A dificuldade não está nas idéias novas, mas em escapar das antigas".

A lei de Bernard Shaw: "Patriotismo é a convicção de que o país da gente é superior a todos os demais, simplesmente porque ali nascemos".

A lei de Hayek: "Num país onde o único empregador é o Estado, a oposição significa morte por inanição. O velho princípio de que quem não trabalha não come é substituído por um novo princípio: quem não obedece não come".

A lei de Mark Twain: "Um banqueiro é um tipo que nos empresta um guarda-chuva quando faz sol, e exige-o de volta quando começa a chover".

A lei de Lord Kelvin: "Grandes aumentos de custos -com questionável melhoria de desempenho- só podem ser tolerados em relação a cavalos e mulheres".

A lei de Charles De Gaulle: "As promessas só comprometem aqueles que as recebem".

A lei de John Randolph, constituinte na Convenção de Filadélfia: "O mais delicioso dos privilégios é gastar o dinheiro dos outros".

A lei de Getúlio Vargas: "Os ministérios se compõem de dois grupos. Um formado por gente incapaz, e outro por gente capaz de tudo".

A lei do governador Mario Cuomo, de Nova York: "Faz-se campanha em poesia e governa-se em prosa".

A lei de John Kenneth Galbraith: "A política não é a arte do possível. Ela consiste em escolher entre o desagradável e o desastroso".

A lei de Sócrates: "No tocante a celibato e casamento, é melhor não interferir, deixando que o homem escolha o que quiser. Em ambos os casos, ele se arrependerá".

No último uísque, Merquior me contou um chiste anônimo, que circulava em Londres: "A natureza deu ao homem um pênis e um cérebro, mas insuficiente sangue para fazê-los funcionar simultaneamente".

Ao confidenciar a Merquior que pretendia aposentar-me do Itamaraty para ingressar na política, lembrou-me ele a lei de Hubert Humphrey, vice-presidente dos Estados Unidos na administração Lyndon Jonhson, que dizia: "É verdade que há vários idiotas no Congresso. Mas os idiotas constituem boa parte da população e merecem estar bem representados".

Tendo em vista minhas ambições políticas, combinamos fabricar conjuntamente uma lei, que passaria à posteridade como a lei Campos/Merquior: "A política é a arte de fazer hoje os erros do amanhã, sem esquecer os erros de ontem".

Ao nos despedirmos, já mais sóbrios, lembrei-me de duas leis. A lei do King Murphy, que assim reza: "Não estão seguras a vida, a liberdade e a propriedade de ninguém enquanto a legislatura estiver em sessão". E a lei do sábio Montesquieu, o inventor da teoria da separação de poderes: "O político deve sempre buscar a aprovação, porém jamais o aplauso".

Em minha vida política no Senado e na Câmara, procurei descumprir a lei de King Murphy e cumprir a lei de Montesquieu. Sem resultados brilhantes nem num caso nem no outro...


Roberto Campos, 82, economista e diplomata, foi senador pelo PDS-MT, deputado federal pelo PPB-RJ e ministro do Planejamento (governo Castello Branco). É autor de "A Lanterna na Popa" (Ed. Topbooks, 1994).


sexta-feira, 15 de abril de 2022

A fabulosa história econômica da Irlanda, de um dos países mais pobres da Europa para um dos mais ricos - Adam Tooze (Chartbook)

From Adam Tooze Chartbook, April 15, 2022 

“The Irish economy during the century after partition” 

Cormac Ó Gráda,Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke Economic History Review May 2022

Ireland, which had not been particularly rich to begin with, had fallen significantly further behind other western European economies by 1958, being overtaken by Finland and Italy. The mid-1950s represented a nadir for the Irish economy, a period when observers from near and far were questioning its future viability. A key public policy document of the time noted that ‘a sense of anxiety’ about Ireland's economic prospects was indeed justified, and that ‘after 35 years of native government people are asking whether we can achieve an acceptable degree of economic progress’.16 The Irish economy's relative position had barely improved by the mid-1980s (column 3), implying only very mild convergence since the 1950s. Greek and Spanish incomes had by this stage also caught up with Irish ones. However, by 2018 the doleful picture painted by Lee had been reversed … household consumption per head in Ireland being more or less on a par with that in Germany,


quinta-feira, 14 de abril de 2022

Lançamento do livro de Paulo Fernando Pinheiro Machado sobre o Visconde do Uruguai: um dos fundadores da diplomacia brasileira: 2/05/2022, 17hs

 Terei a honra de participar no próximo dia 2 de maio, em minha qualidade de prefaciador do livro, do lançamento desta obra do meu colega e amigo Paulo Fernando Pinheiro Machado. Eis a ficha do trabalho: 

“A construção da diplomacia brasileira por um de seus pais fundadores”, Prefácio ao livro de Paulo Fernando Pinheiro Machado: Ideias e diplomacia: O Visconde do Uruguai e o nascimento da política externa brasileira– 1849-1853 (Lisboa: Lisbon International, 2022, p. 15-29).

Sumário e apresentação abaixo.

Convido a todos.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida



IDEIAS E DIPLOMACIA: 

O Visconde do Uruguai e o nascimento da política externa brasileira – 1849-1853 

Paulo Fernando Pinheiro Machado 

 

Resumo: 

Esta obra busca compreender o quadro de ideias que prevaleceu e orientou a construção da diplomacia brasileira em seu momento formativo. Nesse contexto, busca-se, sobretudo, descortinar a visão de mundo que prevalecera entre os estadistas do Império sobre nossa diplomacia, mantida no período republicano. Compreender, em suma, como as ideias de em grupo específico – o chamado “núcleo duro do Partido Conservador” – haviam contribuído para manter a unidade territorial do Brasil, que, ao contrário da América Espanhola, não se desintegrou em inúmeras repúblicas menores. Essa obra de centralização política e administrativa foi fruto de uma política consciente, concebida e executada pelos estadistas do Partido Conservador durante o segundo reinado e reafirmada pela diplomacia nobiliárquica da casa de Bragança. Nesse sentido, O Visconde do Uruguai, prócer do Partido Conservador, foi quem pela primeira vez praticou uma política externa no Brasil, consolidando visões antes dispersas sobre uma série de temas. Ao assumir a chancelaria pela segunda vez, em 1849, o Visconde dá um rumo para a diplomacia do Império, organizando o tratamento de assuntos como limites, tráfico de escravos, relacionamento com os vizinhos e com as potências, intervenção, comércio, entre outros. Este estudo procura, assim, desenvolver uma análise de policy change, isto é, procura explicar uma mudança de orientação política (variável dependente) a partir das ideias de um ator privilegiado (variável independente). O presente trabalho buscou, então, estudar a influência que as disposições e as ideias do Visconde do Uruguai tiveram nessa organização inicial da agenda diplomática brasileira e como essas mesmas ideias se solidificaram na tradição diplomática do Brasil, reafirmada pelos sucessores do Visconde.

 

 

SUMÁRIO 

INTRODUÇÃO .............. 10 

 

1 O PAPEL DAS IDÉIAS NA POLÍTICA ............... 17 

1.1 CATEGORIAS DE IDÉIAS .................. 19 

1.2 O IMPACTO DAS IDÉIAS NA POLÍTICA ........ 20 

 

2 O CONTEXTO: O MUNDO RESTAURADO PÓS-GUERRAS NAPOLEÔNICAS.. 23 

2.1 PAX BRITANNICA................ 23 

2.2 AS POTÊNCIAS DO CONCERTO EUROPEU ................. 26 

2.3 A AMÉRICA ESPANHOLA E O RIO DA PRATA ........... 29 

2.4 A POSIÇÃO DO BRASIL ...... 33 

 

3 ORIGENS E GESTAÇÃO DO PENSAMENTO DIPLOMÁTICO DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI . 38 

3.1 ORIGENS FAMILIARES ....... 38 

3.2 EDUCAÇÃO FORMAL ......... 40 

3.3 RELAÇÕES SOCIAIS ............ 42 

3.4 EXPERIÊNCIA PROFISSIONAL ......... 44 

 

4 O PENSAMENTO POLÍTICO E DIPLOMÁTICO DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI .. 48 

4.1 O PENSAMENTO CONSERVADOR ................. 48 

4.2 O PENSAMENTO POLÍTICO DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI ..... 50 

4.3 URUGUAI E O IMPÉRIO ...... 53 

 

5 A DIPLOMACIA COMERCIAL ............ 56 

5.1 OS TRATADOS DESIGUAIS ............... 56 

5.2 A REAÇÃO AO SISTEMA DE TRATADOS ..... 58 

 

6 A DIPLOMACIA FINANCEIRA ........... 63 

6.1 A SITUAÇÃO FINANCEIRA NO PRATA EM MEADOS DA DÉCADA DE 1840 .... 64 

6.2 A DIPLOMACIA FINANCEIRA DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI ................ 65 

 

7 LIMITES: A GRANDE POLÍTICA AMERICANISTA .................. 69 

7.1 A SITUAÇÃO NO MOMENTO DA INDEPENDÊNCIA ................. 69 

7.2 A IDÉIA DE NACIONALIDADE NO BRASIL ................. 71 

7.3 A POLÍTICA DE LIMITES ANTES DA GESTÃO DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI . 72 

7.4 A POSIÇÃO DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI .... 74 

7.5 A POSIÇÃO DOS SUCESSORES DO VISCONDE ...........79 

 

8 AS RELAÇÕES COM A INGLATERRA: DO CONFLITO À PACIFICAÇÃO ... 82 

8.1 UMA RELAÇÃO CONFLITUOSA: AS MÁGOAS DA INDEPENDÊNCIA .........82

8.2 A POSIÇÃO DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI ....88 

8.3 PRECURSORES E SEGUIDORES DA POLÍTICA DO VISCONDE ..............94

 

9 O PRATA: DA NEUTRALIDADE À INTERVENÇÃO ................. 96 

9.1 O CONTEXTO GEOPOLÍTICO DA REGIÃO ..................96 

9.2 A POLÍTICA DO IMPÉRIO PARA O PRATA ATÉ 1849: ABAETÉ E A DOUTRINA DA NEUTRALIDADE 102 

9.3 A POLÍTICA DO VISCONDE DO URUGUAI: A DOUTRINA DA INTERVENÇÃO .. 103 

9.4 A POLÍTICA PARA O PRATA DEPOIS DO VISCONDE ............ 111 

 

CONCLUSÕES ............ 114 

REFERÊNCIAS ........... 122

 

In Ukraine, Russia is using the same tactics it used in Syria. Why it’s not working - The Daily 202 (The Washington Post)

 Uma cmparação subjetiva, mas interessante...

In Ukraine, Russia is using the same tactics it used in Syria. Why it’s not working.

The Daily 202: The Washington Post, April 14, 2022
A Syrian boy displaced by war in Aleppo sells cotton-candy to help provide for his family. (Alice Martins for The Washington Post)

A Syrian boy displaced by war in Aleppo sells cotton-candy to help provide for his family. (Alice Martins for The Washington Post)

Everyone agrees: Russian aggressions against Syrian civilians previewed the horrors it’s now inflicting in Ukraine. Hospitals bombed. Children slaughtered. Electricity and water shut off. 

War-torn Syria is getting more public attention than it has in years, especially with the news that President Vladimir Putin made his former Syria commander top dog in Ukraine. To many, Russia’s bombardment of Mariupol feels like a repeat of the 2016 bombing of Aleppo. Once again, Russia is disregarding humanitarian corridors, spreading propaganda and committing war crimes.

  • “As the war drags on, the parallels deepen,” my colleague Ishaan Tharoor writes. “The ruthless tactics and bombing campaigns that Russia unfurled across the Middle Eastern nation served as something of a trial run for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. And, in less than two months, the battles are producing effects on the ground that are tragically familiar to anyone who experienced or watched Syria’s decade-long implosion.”

But — fortunately for Ukrainians — the two conflicts differ in some crucial ways. Syria may have emboldened Putin, but it’s hardly a playbook for invading Ukraine, where Ukraine’s stronger-than-expected defense is now calling Russia’s military prowess into serious question. Let’s explore some reasons.

Russia could hide its military shortcomings in Syria  but not in Ukraine

Putin is sending loads more troops to Ukraine than he ever sent to Syria. At any given time, he put only several thousand troops in Syria to help President Bashar al-Assad’s effort to squash opposition groups. That allowed him to mask any deficiencies by rotating his best units in and out, said Joel Rayburn, who served as the United States Special Envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2021.

 

That’s simply not an option in Ukraine, where Putin has sent an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 troops. Russia’s military is on display to the world — and it doesn’t look pretty. It’s been slow to switch course, mired in clunky bureaucracy and operating with poor intelligence.

For example, when Russia approached Kyiv it did so by sending a long column of tanks and other military vehicles which had to stay on the roads and were therefore vulnerable to attack by Ukrainians. In Syria, Russia mostly stuck to giving air support. (Here, my colleague Liz Sly outlines other missteps by Russia.)

  • “[Russia’s] institutional shortcomings in manning, training, equipping and leading — and just operating — came out very clearly,” Rayburn told me.

Russia is up against a united government this time

In Syria, Russia aligned with the central government, led by Assad, against opposition groups who became fragmented over time. In Ukraine, Russian is up against the unified central government of Ukraine.

Assad promulgated a global propaganda campaign labeling all opposition groups — including peaceful protesters — as “terrorists” aligned with ISIS. The oppressive regime’s tactics forced divisions among the dozens of individual groups and clouded the initial rally cries for freedom. Eventually, the various groups lost the same vision for the way forward; for example, some just wanted Assad gone while others with more extreme views wanted to replace his regime with an Islamist government.

It’s a different scenario entirely in Ukraine. Russia’s annexation of Crimea back in 2014 prompted Ukraine to start beefing up its military. Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been viewed as a strong uniter of the country. And Ukrainians have better morale because they’re fighting alongside each other for their homes and families. 

  • “The Syrian resistance was never well-organized, whereas the Ukrainians have really held together,” said Michel O’Hanlon, director of research for foreign policy for the Brookings Institution.
  • “You had opponents of Assad working at cross purposes,” said Steve Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Unlike Ukraine, where you have a president, army and civil defense.”

Ukrainians are better armed than Syrians were

In Syria, the Russians were mostly up against light infantry — not heavy weaponry — and virtually no air defense. But in Ukraine, Russia vastly miscalculated the ability of its bombing campaign to take out the country’s air force and air-defense systems.

 
  • “[Russia] didn’t anticipate the kind of resistance,” Cook said.

And because Ukraine enjoys broad international support, it has received a steady supply of weapons from the United States and allies. While the United States supplied some weapons to Syrian opposition groups, the scale was much smaller and the aid didn’t come until a few years into the war.

When Russia first invaded seven weeks ago, Ukrainians met with surprising success by using Turkish-made drones called Bayraktars to demolish Russian equipment. 

Now, as Russia appears to gird up for a second phase of its offensive, the United States is bolstering its supply of weapons to the country. The Biden administration is preparing to transfer armored Humvees and other sophisticated equipment, my colleagues Dan Lamothe and Karoun Demirjian reported

Syrians are sharing their experience with Ukrainians

My colleague Josh Rogin recently interviewed the leader of the Syrian Civil Defense Force, known as the White Helmets. While the group’s primary role is to rescue, evacuate and give emergency care to civilians, its volunteers have recently focused on helping Ukrainians. They’re preparing a series of videos that give Ukrainians practical advice on how to survive a Russian assault, with tips like using walkie-talkies instead of cellphones and watching for follow up attacks — known as “double taps” — seven to nine minutes after the first one to hit first responders.

I caught up Wednesday with its leader, Raed al Saleh, who pointed something else out. He noted that Ukraine already has infrastructure in place for delivering aid, whereas in Syria it took years to get aid flowing.

  • “The support and resources in Syria was something very different,” he said. “It took many years to establish resources and NGOs.”

Lula em estado bruto: o ódio contra a classe média como "estratégia eleitoral" - Editorial Estadão

 Não, não quero comentar nada, nem provar mais nada, mas nem precisa. Lula se revela inteiramente como o ser rústico que efetivamente é. Estou apenas registrando, em meu blog implacável com os deslizes de nossos horripilantes candidatos a qualquer coisa, estes retratos de nossa miserável campanha presidencial.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida.

LULA EM ESTADO BRUTO
OPINIÃO - ESTADÃO, 13/042022

As recentes declarações de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expõem as falhas insanáveis do discurso de moderação que o petista pretendia emplacar nas eleições deste ano. Lula se apresenta como o único em condições de liderar uma frente ampla em defesa da democracia e, portanto, seria a única opção contra o autoritarismo do presidente Jair Bolsonaro. O convite ao ex-governador de São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin para ser vice em sua chapa seria a prova de sua definitiva conversão ao centro democrático. Mas o Lula “moderado desaparece quando ele está em ambientes exclusivamente petistas, onde não precisa enganar ninguém. Ali, Lula surge em estado bruto.
Na Fundação Perseu Abramo, instituto de estudos criado pelo PT, Lula se sentiu à vontade para atacar seu alvo favorito: a classe média. Segundo o petista, a classe média brasileira “ostenta um padrão de vida que em nenhum lugar do mundo a classe média ostenta”. E continuou: “Nós temos uma classe média que ostenta um padrão de vida que não tem na Europa, que não tem em muitos lugares. Aqui na América Latina, a chamada classe média ostenta muito um padrão de vida acima do necessário”.
O ódio petista à classe média é velho conhecido. Foi enunciado comtodas as letras por uma das intelectuais petistas mais representativas, a filósofa Marilena Chauí, em inesquecível discurso num evento do partido em 2013: “Eu odeio a classe média. A classe média é o atraso de vida. A classe média é a estupidez; é o que tem de reacionário, conservador, ignorante, petulante, arrogante, terrorista. É uma coisa fora do comum. (...) A classe média é uma abominação política, porque é fascista, é uma abominação ética porque é violenta, e é uma abominação cognitiva porque é ignorante. Fim”.
É evidente que os petistas de classe média – e eles existem aos montes, como é o caso da própria Chauí – não se consideram nada
disso. Talvez se envergonhem dos bens e do patrimônio de que dispõem, talvez sejam apenas cínicos, mas o fato é que, para a turma que urra quando Chauí e Lula atacam a classe média, os odiados um “burgueses” são sempre os outros.
Mas Lula agora foi além: pretende dizer como devem viver os cidadãos de classe média que pagam impostos e ganham dinheiro com o suor do rosto. Em seu marxismo de botequim, o líder petista, ora vejam, acha que a classe média não pode ter um padrão de vida acima do que ele
considera “necessário”.
Em outro evento, na CUT, Lula fez pior. Disse que de nada adianta realizar protestos em frente ao Congresso, porque isso não comove os políticos. Para o petista, o ideal é que os militantes perturbem os parlamentares em suas residências, bem como suas famílias.
“Deputado tem casa. Eles moram em uma cidade, nessa cidade tem sindicalista. (...) Se a gente mapeasse o endereço de cada deputado e fossem 50 pessoas até a casa dele, não é para xingar, mas para conversar com ele, conversar com a mulher dele, com o filho dele, incomodar a tranquilidade dele. Eu acho que surte muito mais efeito.” Muito democrático.
Não se sabe exatamente qual é a estratégia de Lula por trás desse discurso autoritário, mas isso pouco importa. O que interessa é que fique muito claro para os eleitores que Lula não é tão diferente de Bolsonaro como pretende fazer crer. Assim como o presidente, Lula aposta no rancor e na divisão da sociedade para eletrizar seus devotos. Ambos querem resumir a eleição a um confronto do “bem” contra o “mal”.
A pacificação do País obviamente passa por dar fim a essa polarização agressiva que não resolveu nem resolverá nenhum dos problemas crônicos da sociedade brasileira, como um desemprego resistente de dois dígitos, a inflação alta, a volta da fome e a ausência de soluções para a deficiente oferta de serviços de
educação e saúde pelo Estado.
Nesse sentido, é muito bem-vinda a sinalização de uma união de partidos de centro em torno de uma só candidatura ao Palácio do Planalto. Independentemente da escolha final desse grupo, trata-se por enquanto da melhor resposta a esse embate apocalíptico que Lula e Bolsonaro tentam fazer parecer inevitável.


ONGs se posicionam criticamente ao Brasil em diversos quesitos da demanda de ingresso na OCDE

Correio Braziliense desta quinta-feira, 14/04/2022, reflete preocupações de ONGs com os retrocessos do Brasil nos campos do meio ambiente, combate à corrupção e proteção da imprensa e de normas elementares no campo da democracia.