2015-16 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project Team
The
2015-16 State of the Future is a
compelling overview of humanity's present situation, challenges and
opportunities, potentials for
the future, and actions and policies that could improve
humanity's outlook - in clear, precise, and readable
text with unparalleled breadth and depth. "It is time for
intolerance of irrelevant speeches and non-actions by leaders. The
stakes are too high to tolerate business as usual", warns the Executive
Summary of the report.
Pages:
289;
includes some 40 graphs
ISBN: 978-0-9882639-2-5
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
See the video of the report`s launch at the Woodrow Wilson Center
Al Jazeera interview with Jerome C. Glenn, CEO of The Millennium Project
Press Release:
The Millennium Project's newly-released "2015-16 State of the Future"
Confirms that the World is Winning More than Losing, but Where it is
Losing is Very Serious.
Media Advisory (pdf)
2015-16 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project Team
A lucid, thought-provoking, strategically oriented exploration of the
transforming world order.
Mihaly Simai, former Chairman, United Nations University
The State of the Future can make a difference in the world. Well done.
Wendell Bell, Professor Emeritus, Yale University
Global intelligence on the future of the world in the palm of your hand
KurzweilAI News
So important for many people around the world.
Eleonora Masini, former Secretary and President, World Futures
Studies Federation
Absolutely worth the reader’s time… takes the reader much farther forward
than most thinking.
Defense & Foreign Affairs Policy Journal
Strategic Planning for the Planet… remarkably articulate and prescient
Willian Halal,
Foresight Journal
Authoritative compendium of what we know about the future of humanity and
our planet.
The Futurist
Certainly, the guide to make better decisions and achieve success.
Julio Millán, President Coraza Corporación Azteca
Invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States,
and civil society.
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
Executive Summary (pdf):
Arabic,
Chinese,
Croatian,
English,
French,
Japanese,
Korean,
Portuguese,
Romanian,
Spanish
Table
of Contents
Description and Foreword
What are the Prospects for Humanity?
List of Figures, Tables, Boxes
Table
of Contents
FOREWORD
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
GLOBAL CHALLENGES 15
1. Sustainable Development and Climate Change 18
2. Water and Sanitation 28
3. Population and Resources 40
4. Democratization 52
5. Global Foresight and Decisionmaking 66
6. Global Convergence of ICT 78
7. Rich-Poor Gap 88
8. Health Issues 110
9. Education and Learning 132
10. Peace and Conflict 140
11. Status of Women 158
12. Transnational Organized Crime 174
13. Energy 184
14. Science and Technology 196
15. Global Ethics 206
2015 STATE OF THE FUTURE INDEX 217
FUTURE OF WORK/TECHNOLOGY 2050 241
APPENDICES
Millennium Project Node Chairs, Boards & Sponsors 273
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes 280
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 284
The
2015–16 State of the Future brings together an extraordinarily diverse
set of data, information, intelligence, and hopefully some wisdom about
the future. This is the eighteenth edition of the
State of the Future. We
believe that each edition is better than the last. We update data, improve
insights, and respond to feedback. You can add your feedback online at
the
Global Futures Intelligence System (themp.org). There is a comment
icon in the lower right corner of the executive summary and the same for
every one of the 15 Global Challenges.
The short overviews of the 15 Global Challenges are getting longer
and more detailed each year. In addition to giving you possibly the best
overview in existence for each challenge, think of these as a reference to
keep on your desk to return to as needed. Just as you would not speedread
the encyclopedia, this section should also be taken in short doses.
Take your time to reflect on what you are reading in each challenge and
in the sections on the State of the Future Index and the Future Work/
Technology 2050.
This is the second year we have used the Global Futures Intelligence
System to update and improve the State of the Future report. The
challenges in GFIS are updated daily from news aggregations, scanning
items, situation charts, and other resources, which has led to greater
detail and depth than in the previous edition.
While this report presents the distilled results of recent research by
The Millennium Project, GFIS contains the detailed background and
data for that research, plus all of The Millennium Project’s research since
its founding in 1996. It also contains the largest internationally peerreviewed
set of methods to explore future possibilities ever assembled in
one source. Readers of this report should subscribe to GFIS to keep up to
date and participate in improving insights about future possibilities.
The purpose of futures research is to systematically explore,
create,
and test both possible and desirable futures in order to improve
decisions. Just as the person on top of the mast on old sailing
ships
used to point out the rocks and safe channels to the captain
below
for the smooth running of the ship through uncharted waters, so
too
futurists with foresight systems for the world can point out
problems
and opportunities to leaders and the public around the world.
Since
decision-making is increasingly affected by globalization,
global futures
research is increasingly valuable for decision-making by
individuals, groups, and institutions. The quality of democracies
emerging around
the world is enhanced by better-informed publics; understanding
issues
and opportunities in this report can contribute to improved
democratic
decision-making.
This report is for thought leaders, decision-makers, and all those
who care about the world and its future. Readers will learn how their
interests fit into the global situation and how the global situation may
affect them and their interests. The
State of the Future and GFIS provide
an additional eye on global change. These are information utilities that
people can draw from as relevant to their unique needs. They provide
an overview of the global strategic landscape. Business executives use
the research as input to their strategic planning. University professors,
futurists, and other consultants find this information useful in teaching
and research.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory think tank of
futurists, scholars, scientists, business planners, and policy makers
who work for international organizations, governments, corporations,
NGOs, and universities and who volunteer their time to improve each
edition of the
State of the Future. It was selected to be among the top
10 think tanks in the world for new ideas and paradigms by the 2013
and 2014 University of Pennsylvania’s GoTo Think Tank Index and as a
2012 Computerworld Honors Laureate for its innovations in collective
intelligence systems.
The purposes of The Millennium Project are to assist in
organizing futures research, improve thinking about the future,
and make that thinking available through a variety of media for
consideration in policymaking, advanced training, public education,
and feedback, ideally in order to accumulate wisdom about potential
futures.
The Project’s diversity of opinions and global views is ensured by
its
56 Nodes around the world. These are groups of individuals and
organizations that interconnect global and local perspectives. They
identify participants, conduct interviews, translate and distribute
questionnaires, and conduct research and conferences. It is through
their contributions that the world picture of this report and indeed
all of The Millennium Project’s work emerge.
Through its research, publications, addresses at conferences, and
Nodes, The Millennium Project helps to nurture an international
collaborative spirit of free inquiry and feedback for increasing collective
intelligence to improve social, technical, and environmental viability
for human development. Feedback on any sections of the book is most
welcome and may help
shape the next
State of the Future, GFIS, and the general work of The
Millennium Project.
Jerome C. Glenn,
Executive Director
Elizabeth Florescu, Director of Research
The Millennium Project Team -- Staff , 56 Nodes, Reviewers
What are the Prospects for Humanity?
They could be great, provided the main global challenges are addressed,
shows the
2015-16 State of the Future produced by The Millennium Project
The
State of the Future is a comprehensive overview of the present situation
and prospects for humanity, integrating forecasts, trends, and judgments
of thought leaders and scholars from around the world sharing important
future possibilities to improve strategies today.
The
205-16 State of the Future
shows that the world is improving better
than most pessimists know and that future dangers are worse than
most
optimists indicate. We need serious, coherent, and integrated
understandings of mega-problems and opportunities to identify and
implement strategies on the scale necessary to address global
challenges. This report should be used as a reference to further that
understanding. After 18 years of producing the
State of the Future
reports, it is increasingly clear that humanity has the resources to
address its global challenges, but it is not clear that an integrated
set of global and local strategies will be implemented together and on
the scale necessary to build a better future.
“The
State of the Future is an
unparalleled overview of what is, what
ought to be, and how to achieve it,” says Jerome Glenn, CEO of
The Millennium
Project. “The 2015-16 edition is the richest array and synthesis
of data,
information, and intelligent insights that The Millennium
Project has
ever assembled. "A lucid, thought-provoking, strategically
oriented exploration of the transforming world order" says Mihaly Simai,
former Chairman of the United Nations University. It integrates and
distills the rapidly changing global situation
in technology, environment, social unrest, development gaps,
security,
energy, food, organized crime, gender relations, governance,
health, education,
and more.
The
Executive Summary of the
2015-16 State of the Future gives a clear
and precise overview of our situation, prospects, and suggestions for
building a better future, plus an annual World Report Card of where we
are winning and losing, and the 2015 State of the Future Index.
The section on the
15 Global Challenges provides
a framework for understanding global change with infographics for each
challenge.
The
State of the Future Index (SOFI) section
offers more details on how the SOFI is computed, graphs and forecsts for
the 28 variables included in the SOFI, a sensitivity analysis of the
2015 SOFI, and national applications for four European countries.
The section on the
Future
Work/Technology 2050 shares the initial analysis of a Real-Time Delphi study that explores a series of
questions such as:
• What should we begin to do now to prevent long-term structural
unemployment due to future technologies?
• What questions need to be resolved to answer whether AI and
other future technologies will create more jobs than they replace?
• If massive unemployment cannot be prevented, what politicaleconomic
changes would it be wise to begin to develop?
Rich with
data, analysis and forecasts,
the State of the Future report is a unic "one-stop-shop" to understand
the present situation and potential prospects in all the domains-- from
economy to demographics, S&T, climate change, democracy, and global
ethics.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory think tank connecting
56 Nodes around the world that identify important
long-range challenges and strategies, and initiate and conduct foresight
studies, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. Over 4,500 futurists,
scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international
organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities have
participated in The Millennium Project’s research since its inception
in 1996. The Project’s mission is to improve thinking about the future
and make that thinking available through a variety of media for feedback
to accumulate wisdom about the future for better decisions today. It
produces the annual
State of the Future reports, the
Futures
Research Methodology series, the
Global Futures Intelligence System
(GFIS), and special studies. The Millennium Project was selected among
the top ten think tanks in the world for new ideas and paradigms by the
2013 University of Pennsylvania’s GoTo Think Tank Index, and as a 2012
Computerworld Honors Laureate for its contributions to collective intelligence
systems.
List of Figures, Tables, Boxes
Executive Summary
Figure 1. Initial Draft Concept for Discussion of an Integrated Global Strategy 8
Figure 2.
State of the Future Index 2015 9
Figure 3.
Where We Are Winning 11
Figure 4.
Where We Are Losing or There Is Little or No Progress 12
Box 1.
Variables Included in the Computation of the 2015 SOFI 10
Global Challenges
Figure 1.1 Global Challenges 17
Figure 1.2 Improved water source (% of population with access) 38
Figure 1.3 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) 39
Figure 1.4 Freedom rights (number of countries rated "free") 65
Figure 1.5 Internet penetration by Region 87
Figure 1.6 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 109
Figure 1.7 Health expenditure per capita (current $) 130
Figure 1.8 Likelihood of education and learning possibilities by 2030 139
Figure 1.9 Terrorism incidents 157
Figure 1.10 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating 215
Figure 1.11 Global Challenges and SOFI Process 216
State of the Future Index
Figure 2.1 State of the Future Index 2015 -- 220
Figure 2.2 State of the Future Index 2015 with 25% improvements of
Energy Efficiency and Income Inequality between 2016 and 2025 -- 220
Figure 2.3 Where we are winning 221
Figure 2.4 Where we are losing or there is no progress 222
Figure 2.5 2014 SOFI Czech Republic 223
Figure 2.6 2014 SOFI Hungary 223
Figure 2.7 2014 SOFI Poland 224
Figure 2.8 2014 SOFI Slovakia 224
Figure 2.9 V4 2014 SOFI 225
Figure 2.10 2014 SOFI Comparison among V4 countries 225
Figure 2.11 GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $) 226
Figure 2.12 Economic income inequality (Income share held by highest 10%) 227
Figure 2.13 Unemployment, total (% of world labor force) 227
Figure 2.14 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 228
Figure 2.15 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating 228
Figure 2.16 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current $, billions) ………..……….229
Figure 2.17 R&D expenditures (% of GDP) 229
Figure 2.18 Population growth (annual %) 230
Figure 2.19 Life expectancy at birth (years) 230
Figure 2.20 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 231
Figure 2.21 Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) 231
Figure 2.22 Health expenditure per capita (current $) 232
Figure 2.23 Physicians (per 1,000 people) 232
Figure 2.24 Improved water source (% of population with access) 233
Figure 2.25 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) 233
Figure 2.26 Biocapacity per capita (gha) 234
Figure 2.27 Forest area (% of land area) 234
Figure 2.28 Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr) 235
Figure 2.29 Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use
(constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)) 235
Figure 2.30 Electricity production from renewable sources,
excluding hydroelectric (% of total) 236
Figure 2.31 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) 236
Figure 2.32 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 237
Figure 2.33 Share of high-skilled employment (%) 237
Figure 2.34 Number of wars and armed conflicts 238
Figure 2.35 Terrorism incidents 238
Figure 2.36 Freedom rights (number of countries rated "free") 239
Figure 2.37 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments
(% of members) 239
Figure 2.38 Internet users (per 100 people) 240
Box 2.1 Variables Included in the Computation of the 2015 SOFI 218
Work/Tech 2050
Figure 3.1 Average Rate of Unemployment by 2050 by 10-year increments 246
Table 3.1 Age Group of Participants 244
Table 3.2 Respondents’ Degree of Expertise in Futures Research 245
Table 3.3 Institutional Affiliation of the Participants 245
Table 3.4 Average Rating of Technologies Likely to Replace Rather
than Create More Jobs/Work by 2050 -- 249
Table 3.5 Average Rating of the Factors Thought to Help Create Jobs and
Prevent Mass Unemployment by 2050 -- 250
Table 3.6 Average Rating of the Likelihood and Effectiveness of
Some Suggested Actions to Create New Work/Income by 2050 -- 253
Table 3.7 Average Likelihood Rating of Some Potential Developments
Addressing Income Gaps 256
Table 3.8 Necessity of Guaranteed Income (number of responses) 258
Table 3.9 Potential Changes in the Cost of Living by 2050 -- 260
Table 3.10 Scenarios Axes Rank-Ordered by the Number of Votes Received 266
Table 3.11 Themes to be Considered for the 2050 Scenarios 267
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