Apple: delicias e tragedias da volatilidade nas bolsas

Quando as ações da Apple sairam do patamar de 300 dólares para mais de 400, eu já achava que havia uma bolha pronta para estourar...
Pois é: demorou. As ações foram a mais de 700 dólares e muita gente comprou na alta, achando que o paraíso estava próximo. Muita gente vai amargar prejuízos e perdas irrecuperáveis, pelos próximos anos, pois não acredito que chegue a 800 dólares any time soon.
Bem vindos ao mundo real...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Coping With the Pain of Souring Apple Shares

Some Investors See a Cheap Stock, but Others Have Sold Everything; 'Headache, Not a Cancer'

By JOE LIGHT

The Wll Street Journal, February 3, 2013

As the U.S. stock market flirts with record highs, investors who hold big stakes in Apple Inc. AAPL -0.41% are taking a beating.
Since peaking at $705.07 during the day on Sept. 21, Apple shares have fallen 36% to close at $453.62, erasing more than $236 billion in market value—a figure equal to about 35 times the current value of BlackBerry RIM.T +0.70% maker Research In Motion Ltd.
The pain has been widespread. About 60% of actively managed U.S. stock mutual funds that invest in big companies owned at least some Apple shares at the end of the year, according to investment-research firm Morningstar Inc. MORN +0.53% Ninety funds had 10% or more of their portfolios in the stock.

No one blinked when Apple shares headed towards $700 but now that the stock has dropped below $450-with some analysts saying it could be headed well below $400-people are complaining. 

But Apple's plunge is affecting investors in different ways. While some are getting out for good, others are staying put or even buying more. And some are glad they avoided the stock altogether.
Most mutual funds disclose their holdings quarterly, but the 145 actively managed U.S. stock funds that hold Apple and reported monthly results sold a net 223,402 shares, or 3% of their Apple holdings, in December, according to Morningstar, a time when the stock was between 16% and 28% off its peak. Sixty-one funds sold shares, while 45 funds bought.
That doesn't mean all of them took losses. Even with the setback, Apple has generated a total return, including dividends, of about 28% annually over the past five years, versus 4% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. In four of the past 10 years, Apple's stock price has more than doubled, and its only full-year loss over the past decade occurred in 2008.
Here are some examples of how professional money managers and small investors have reacted:
• Bailing out. Some investors, feeling burned by the steep drop, are selling their stakes.
Frank Sansone, a retired college professor in Pensacola, Fla., bought 40 Apple shares during the first half of last year. As its stock price breached $700 in September, Mr. Sansone said he intended to sell but missed his chance while on vacation.
As Apple's stock dropped, he sold most of the shares in November and December, locking in losses of about $2,800.
"I left it alone, and it turned out to be a bigger mistake than I ever expected," he said.
Among mutual-fund managers, one of the biggest sellers was the $857 million Brandywine Fund, which last quarter dumped its entire Apple stake of more than 143,000 shares, according to Morningstar.
In a year-end note to investors, fund manager Bill D'Alonzo cited tightening profit margins, among other worries, as reasons for selling. A spokesman for Friess Associates, which manages the fund, declined to comment.
• Staying the course. The $406 million Matthew 25 Fund landed in the top 2% of funds that invest in large, growth companies for each of the past three years, largely because of its huge stake in Apple. As of September, when the fund last disclosed its holdings, Apple comprised 15% of its portfolio.
That has come back to bite manager Mark Mulholland. The fund has had a total return of 4.5% this year through Thursday, 0.7 percentage point less than the S&P 500 and in the bottom 41% of its peers, according to Morningstar.
"It's been a headache, but not a cancer," Mr. Mulholland said, noting that since November he has fielded a handful of emails and phone calls from investors asking about his Apple stake.
• Seeing a cheap stock. John Barr, portfolio manager of the $67 million Needham Aggressive Growth Fund, last quarter bought 100 shares, increasing his stake to 5,350 shares, even though the fund invests mostly in small-capitalization stocks. At the end of the year, Apple was Mr. Barr's fifth-largest holding, with 4.3% of the fund.
Mr. Barr said he still believes the stock is cheap and that the company might see hot earnings growth as it introduces new products, such as a rumored cheaper iPhone or television set.
Apple's price/earnings multiple based on expected earnings over the next 12 months is eight, compared with 13 for the S&P 500, according to Morningstar.
"It's an inexpensive stock that is growing much faster than the market as a whole," he said. "We're happy to own something at a reasonable price."
Needham Aggressive Growth, which first bought Apple shares in 2006, has never sold shares, Mr. Barr said.
Bob Turner, manager of the $223 million Turner Large Growth fund, said that his firm "would be more buyers than sellers" of Apple; it had about 13% of its portfolio in the stock at the end of 2012, according to Morningstar. Through Thursday, the fund has had a return of 3%, about 2.2 percentage points below that of the S&P 500, according to Morningstar.
Given how widely owned the stock is, Mr. Turner, whose fund first bought shares in 2004, said he thinks Apple simply ran out of investors looking to add shares at its peak in September.
"What's always befuddled me is valuation," he said, adding "You can be right with your thesis all day, but it doesn't stop you from losing money."
• Sitting out. Apple's drop provides some vindication for the few money managers who didn't hold Apple during its bull run and saw their portfolios trail because of it.
Robert Zagunis, who co-manages the $4.3 billion Jensen Quality Growth fund, has never owned Apple shares. The fund invests only in companies with a decadelong history of high returns on equity, a test Apple doesn't meet yet.
In the last three years through Thursday, the fund has had an average annual return of 12%, 2.5 percentage points lower than the S&P 500, according to Morningstar.
Last summer, Mr. Zagunis devoted a note to investors explaining why he didn't hold Apple. "We had times when [much] of the underperformance was due to one stock that we didn't hold," he said in an interview.
But when Mr. Zagunis was recently a guest speaker at an investment class at a university, he said, the students showed him a chart of their portfolio, which has performed poorly this year.
"They said—it was almost apologetic—'We owned Apple.'"
Write to Joe Light at joe.light@wsj.com