segunda-feira, 19 de maio de 2014

FHC: alternancia no poder sempre deve ocorrer - Entrevista a Roberto D'Avila - GloboNews

Edição do dia 11/05/2014
11/05/2014 07h07 - Atualizado em 11/05/2014 07h07

'A alternância é sempre boa', diz FHC sobre tempo no poder

Em entrevista a Roberto D’Avila, Fernando Henrique falou sobre reforma constitucional, rotatividade no poder, contexto atual e governos FHC e Lula.


Roberto D’Avila conversou com o ex-presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso, em São Paulo. FHC falou sobre reforma constitucional, rotatividade no poder, contexto atual, governo FHC e governo Lula, entre outros assuntos.

Sociólogo, um dos intelectuais mais respeitados do país, às vésperas de completar 83 anos, Fernando Henrique Cardoso conserva o mesmo humor ferino, sua marca registrada, mas sempre com muito amor pela vida.
FHC costuma dar entrevistas no instituto que leva seu nome, mas desta vez escolheu sua casa. Fernando Henrique governou o Brasil por oito anos: de 1995 a primeiro de janeiro de 2003.
A primeira vez que Roberto D’Avila entrevistou Fernando Henrique foi em 1979, em Paris.
Ele dava aulas na escola de altos estudos da Sorbonne e já era uma das figuras centrais das discussões políticas que reunia centenas de exilados brasileiros que ainda viviam no exterior. Em 1996, já presidente, recebeu Roberto D’Avila no Palácio da Alvorada, em Brasília.
Confira destaques da entrevista a Roberto D’Avila:
Reforma constitucional
Roberto D’Avila: O senhor escreveu um artigo no Globo e na Folha neste fim de semana, em que faz uma chamada aos ex-presidentes, pedindo a reforma política, uma mudança.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Esse sistema não está funcionando. Um país que tem mais de 30 partidos, vinte e poucos operando no Congresso. Agora não são dois ou três partidos que se juntam. É todo mundo que se organiza em partido para poder tirar um pedacinho do governo, para ter uma diretoria. E isso é a mola fundamental para aumentar a corrupção. Estamos vendo que esse negócio não vai dar certo. O que vai dar certo? Acho que de cara não dá pra fazer um parlamentarismo, mas dá pra começar a mexer no modo de votar. A presidente Dilma está lá apertada por causa desse sistema também, como todos foram. No meu tempo foi mais fácil, porque não havia tantos partidos. E eu tinha um propósito: reformar a Constituição. Então a aliança era pra isso. Depois, o presidente Lula veio pra nada, porque não reformou constituição nenhuma! O que ele queria? Hegemonia, dominar tudo. E deu o mensalão! Ele diz que não aconteceu. Todo mundo sabe que houve o mensalão.
Roberto D´Avila: O senhor acha que aconteceu aquilo porque tinha muitos pequenos partidos e tinha que distribuir e tal?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: É! E com a ambição de ter o controle! Pra que ter 80%? Porque como eu disse neste mesmo artigo, na democracia, a maioria são, em geral, eventuais. Não é pra você ter sempre o controle de tudo, mas a visão prevalecente a partir do presidente Lula, do PT, foi essa, de ter hegemonia. Piorou tudo. Não começou, não foi ele que inventou essas práticas, elas vêm de longe. Elas foram se deteriorando com o tempo. Segundo: tem que ter regra de limitar o que é partido. Agora não tem regra: o sujeito junta 20, 30 deputados, assina não sei o que lá, vai no cartório.
Rotatividade no poder
Roberto D´Avila: Se olharmos o mundo, o François Mitterrand ficou 14 anos, o Felipe González, 13 anos, a Margaret Thatcher, acho que 12 anos, Getúlio aqui no Brasil 15. E sempre a corrupção vai aumentando no final. Agora, se não houver uma mudança de governo, vamos para 16 anos. Como é que o senhor vê essa questão da rotatividade?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Eu acho imprescindível! Porque é o seguinte, você não pode. Corrupção, você pode dizer: sempre tem sempre.
Roberto D´Avila: Aliás, no último ano aparece mais! Com a eleição.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: É uma coisa individual, mas quando você institucionaliza, ou seja, quando você tem um sistema, que você pra ter apoios políticos, você vai dar cargos, você sabe que esses cargos vão ser usados para fazer caixinha, aí é um caminho para a corrupção. Quando você fica muito tempo no poder, os compromissos são muitos. Você não consegue mexer na máquina, mesmo querendo. Veja a presidente Dilma: tentou várias vezes. Agora está lá, nomeando tesoureiro de partido para ter posição no governo. Não consegue. Com o tempo, você perde a capacidade de renovar realmente. A alternância é sempre boa. Você vai dizer: "E vocês em São Paulo?". A regra vale. É preciso que haja alguém para quem você passe o poder que seja confiável, que o povo creia nesse alguém. Por enquanto em São Paulo isso não apareceu.

Contexto atual
Roberto D´Avila: O senhor vê que, não por causa do PT ou do governo, o Brasil está vivendo um momento estranho. Essa moça que foi linchada pelas redes sociais, entre outras coisas.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Entre outras coisas, mas é uma coisa preocupante. O que é que há hoje no Brasil? No mundo todo você tem movimentos, a internet mobiliza as pessoas, salta as estruturas, é uma coisa muito rápida. Mas aqui há um certo rancor que não era habitual. O Brasil sempre foi violento lá pro Nordeste, pra Amazônia, por causa da terra.
Roberto D´Avila: No Rio Grande do Sul.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: No Rio Grande do Sul. O que dizer? No Rio Grande do Sul degolavam, mas com o tempo, fomos criando condições mais civilizadas de vida. Agora, você percebe que há uma raiva. Queimam ônibus. Toda noite se queima ônibus no Brasil. Ônibus, viaturas, não sei o que lá. Quebram bancos, quebram edifícios públicos. Há raiva, isso é preocupante, há um mal-estar. Não é uma coisa dirigida contra um partido, contra um governo, a favor. Não é só isso, não. Há um mal-estar, e esse mal estar está indo para a justiça pelas próprias mãos. Mataram uma moça. Ainda disse um dos que foram acusados: "Eu não sabia que ela era inocente". E se fosse culpada, ele podia matar? Quer dizer, é um clima ruim. Aí vem com o problema: o que vai acontecer na Copa. Ninguém sabe, ninguém sabe. Deverá haver manifestações, porque hoje é um movimento de internet. Agora, eu tenho medo da junção de vários fatores desse tipo assim que vão azedando o clima. Se houver um sentimento de mal-estar, todos os que estão no governo sofrem.

O Plano Real
Roberto D´Avila: Estamos comemorando os 20 anos do Real, que foi importantíssimo. A população brasileira nunca perdeu tanto quanto com a inflação. Era um horror. O senhor tem esse mérito. Aliás, o presidente Itamar tem esse mérito, já que o senhor era o ministro da Fazenda. Como é que foi aquele momento?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Aquele momento era o seguinte: você tinha uma inflação em média de 20% ao ano.
Roberto D´Avila: Os jovens nem sabem, não é?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Não têm ideia. Agora, nós aprendemos com os planos anteriores, inclusive o plano Cruzado, que ensinou, e eu consegui juntar as pessoas. O governo, os amigos do presidente Itamar desconfiavam muito. Ele próprio: “O que é isso?”. Não entendia. Economia é complicado. Geralmente você tem que fazer o contrário do que parece o óbvio.
Roberto D´Avila: Aliás, o senhor confiou no pessoal.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Eu não sou economista, mas eu sei. Fui da CEPAL (Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe), conheço razoavelmente para acompanhar. É muito difícil juntar gente com muito talento. A visão prevalecente era a seguinte: isso é fruto da especulação. Enquanto o pessoal do governo me dizia: "Olha aqui, prende o Abílio - o Abílio Diniz, dono do Pão de Açúcar -, prende o Abílio, porque é especulador e controla os preços, segura os preços". Era essa a visão comum. Nós tivemos que mostrar o contrário, explicar ao presidente Itamar. O Bacha foi muito importante na explicação ao presidente Itamar, que não entendia muito dessa dinâmica. O Itamar sempre me deu força naquela época. Depois, quando ele foi eleito governador, ele esqueceu o que era o Real. Ele achou que podia fazer uma moratória de Minas e não podia.
Roberto D´Avila: O senhor deve a ele dois ministérios importantes.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Devo dois ministérios e o apoio durante aquele período. Fizemos o plano Real. O plano Real, de imediato, beneficiou o salário, porque quando você tem uma inflação de 20, 30 no mês, você na média perdeu 15, que vai perder no dia a dia.
Roberto D´Avila: Os ricos se defendiam, não é?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Os ricos tinham uma conta no banco, o banco corrigia automaticamente, correção monetária.
Governo FHC e governo Lula
Roberto D´Avila: Todo mundo, os grandes historiadores, dizem que o seu período e o do Lula vão ficar na história mais ou menos como de continuidade.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Porque foram momentos que você teve estabilização e políticas sociais.
Roberto D´Avila: Ele distribuiu mais a riqueza, não é?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Porque ele tinha mais condições, porque a economia estava mais... Eu peguei cinco crises, mas as bolsas foram criadas por mim, todas. A reforma agrária eu fiz mais, duas, três vezes mais, do que o governo atual. Educação, o acesso à escola primária foi no meu tempo, e o SUS praticamente foi montado no meu governo. O Globo fez uma síntese de tudo isso muito interessante, publicada há um tempo atrás, comparando os governos. Itamar e FH e Lula e Dilma. Indiscutivelmente, houve uma melhoria maior da situação, porque o mundo também favoreceu isso, porque o Lula tinha um compromisso forte com isso também. Eu nunca faço injustiças como ele faz comigo, mas no conjunto nós aprendemos a manejar as políticas para o mundo atual, que é de globalização, onde os nossos interesses nacionais têm que ser defendidos num plano global.

GloboNews Painel: economistas debatem beneficios sociais, com 60 milhoes de dependentes

GloboNews Painel

Convidados debatem situação das contas públicas com aumento dos gastos sociais



Alexandre Schwartsman (economista, professor do Insper), Roberto Macedo (economista, professor da FAAP) e Carlos Melo (cientista político, professor do Insper) debatem, com William Waack, o pagamento de benefícios sociais a uma imensa fração da população brasileira, com mais ou menos 60 milhões de pessoas na "folha de pagamentos" do governo, incluindo aposentados e dependentes do Bolsa Família, o que levanta a questão da sustentabilidade das contas públicas.
O Brasil, por uma Constituição esquizofrênica, e pela crença da maioria dos brasileiros, está se condenando à inviabilidade econômica, na medida em que a extração de recursos da sociedade pelo Estado tornam o crescimento econômico uma tarefa inviável.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

domingo, 18 de maio de 2014

Copa do Mundo de Futebol 2014: quem a pariu, que a embale - Percival Puggina

QUEM PARIU A COPA QUE A EMBALE
Percival Puggina

De vez em quando me vem à lembrança a figura do Lula oferecendo o Brasil para sediar a Copa de 2014 com aquele ar de Moisés malandro levando o povo à terra prometida. Entre os anos de 2003 e 2007, o governo brasileiro suou o topete para alcançar o espetacular objetivo. Sempre fui contra.

          Antes da Copa da África do Sul, a propósito do "Let it be! (Pois que seja!)" com que o bispo Desmond Tutu respondeu aos jornalistas que lhe perguntaram se os estádios sul-africanos não se transformariam em elefantes brancos, eu escrevi: "A FIFA impõe aos países eleitos para acolher seu empreendimento exigências que só se cumprem despejando bilhões de dólares nos seus cofres, nas betoneiras das construtoras e nos altos fornos das siderúrgicas. Se fosse bom negócio, não faltariam empreendedores interessados em bancar a festa porque sobra no mundo dinheiro com tesão para o crescei e multiplicai-vos".

          Contudo, os delírios de grandeza e a notória imprudência do líder máximo do petismo nacional mobilizaram a opinião pública que aceitou a Copa como um dos símbolos do Brasil potência emergente. A maior parte do povo brasileiro, do mesmo modo como espera o último dia de qualquer prazo para fazer o que deve, esperou o último ano anterior ao evento para perceber o descompasso entre o oneroso Brasil da FIFA, para inglês ver, e o carente Brasil dos brasileiros. E aí, alguns pularam, irresponsavelmente, do oito para os oitocentos: "Não vai ter Copa!". Como não vai ter Copa? Vai ter, sim, e não serão alguns milhares de meliantes presunçosos que vão impedir a realização do evento. A estas alturas, com o pouco de vergonha que nos reste na cara, faremos a Copa.

          O que me traz novamente ao tema é o fato de que Lula quis fazer uma borboleta e produziu um morcego. Os espaços que nestes dias a mídia do resto do mundo dedica ao Brasil, em vez de exibir as maravilhas nacionais como sonhava o Lula, estão tomados por severas admoestações aos viajantes sobre os riscos de vir ao nosso país. Nosso cotidiano, descobrem, é assustador. A potência emergente foi tomada de assalto pelo crime organizado, tanto nos últimos andares do poder, no grande mundo, quanto no submundo. (Não por acaso, A Tomada do Brasil é o título do meu próximo livro). Basta-nos assistir os noticiosos do horário noturno para nos depararmos com cenas que ora lembram ocorrências de países em guerra, ora nos nivelam com as mais atrasadas republiquetas da África Subsaariana.

          Se Lula, se Dilma, se o petismo dominante pretenderam transformar a Copa numa excelente oportunidade para o marketing pessoal, político e - até mesmo - nacional, seus burros empacaram dentro d'água. Foi mal, para dizer como a gurizada destes tempos. A atualidade brasileira, a violência e a insegurança de nossas ruas fazem lembrar o que Eça de Queirós escreveu numa crônica de 1871 quando se falava, em Lisboa, sobre os turistas que viriam à terrinha com a construção de uma ferrovia ligando Portugal à Espanha. Escreveu então o mestre lusitano: "A companhia dos caminhos de ferro, com intenções amáveis e civilizadoras, nos coloca em embaraços terríveis: nós não estamos em condições de receber visitas".

          Não estamos, mesmo. Mas agora, quem pariu a Copa que a embale. Que apresente e justifique ao mundo, aos nossos visitantes, o Brasil real, a insegurança das nossas ruas, a violência do cotidiano nacional, nossa incapacidade de cumprir prazos, a limitação monoglota de nossos aeroportos, hotéis, restaurantes e taxis e as muitas tentativas de passar-lhes a perna a que estarão sujeitos. É o lamentável Brasil de 2014.

* Percival Puggina (69) é arquiteto, empresário, escritor, titular do site www.puggina.org, colunista de Zero Hora e de dezenas de jornais e sites no país, autor de Crônicas contra o totalitarismo; Cuba, a tragédia da utopia e Pombas e Gaviões, integrante do grupo Pensar+ e membro da Academia Rio-Grandense de Letras. 

USA: The Great Society at Fifty, a historical reappraisal, by Karen Tumulty (The Washington Post)

The Great Society at 50
LBJ’s unprecedented and ambitious domestic vision changed the nation. Half a century later, it continues to define politics and power in America.
Written by Karen Tumulty
The Washington Post, May 17, 2014


President Lyndon B. Johnson launched the most ambitious set of social programs ever undertaken in the United States. In just a few years, Congress churned out nearly 200 new laws. The "Great Society," as the effort became known, also launched a decades-long political battle that still rages over the size and role of the federal government. This is the first of four stories examining the legacy of the "Great Society". 

One day shortly after starting his new job as presidential adviser and speechwriter, Richard N. Goodwin was summoned to see the boss. Not to the Oval Office, but to the White House swimming pool, where Lyndon B. Johnson often went to ruminate.
Goodwin found the leader of the free world naked, doing a languorous sidestroke. Johnson invited him and top aide Bill Moyers to doff their own clothes: “Come on in, boys. It’ll do you good.”
It was an unorthodox manner of conducting official business. As they bobbed in the tepid water, the president “began to talk as if he were addressing some larger, imagined audience of the mind,” Goodwin later wrote in his memoir.
The 32-year-old speechwriter forgot his chagrin as he was drawn by “the powerful flow of Johnson’s will, exhorting, explaining, trying to tell me something about himself, seeking not agreement — he knew he had that — butbelief.”
This happened in early April 1964, just a little more than four months after a tragedy in Dallas had made Johnson the 36th president of the United States.
“I never thought I’d have the power,” Johnson told Goodwin and Moyers. “I wanted power to use it. And I’m going to use it.”
 “We’ve got to use the Kennedy program as a springboard to take on the Congress, summon the states to new heights, create a Johnson program, different in tone, fighting and aggressive,” he said. “Hell, we’ve barely begun to solve our problems. And we can do it all.”
Johnson’s vision would come to be known as the Great Society — the most ambitious effort ever to test what American government is capable of achieving. And in doing so, to discover what it is not.
In laying it out, LBJ even set out a specific time frame for it to come to fruition — 50 years, a mark that will be reached on Thursday. Johnson launched his program with a University of Michigan commencement address, delivered on the clear, humid morning of May 22, 1964, in Ann Arbor.
Today, the laws enacted between 1964 and 1968 are woven into the fabric of American life, in ways big and small. They have knocked down racial barriers, provided health care for the elderly and food for the poor, sustained orchestras and museums in cities across the country, put seat belts and padded dashboards in every automobile, garnished Connecticut Avenue in Northwest Washington with red oaks.
“We are living in Lyndon Johnson’s America,” said Joseph A. Califano Jr., who was LBJ’s top domestic policy adviser from 1965 through the end of his presidency. “This country is more the country of Lyndon Johnson than any other president.”
The backlash against the Great Society has been as enduring as its successes.
Virtually every political battle that rages today has roots in the federal expansion and experimentation that began in the 1960s. It set terms of engagement for ideological warfare over how to grapple with income inequality, whether to encourage a common curriculum in schools, affirmative action, immigration, even whether to strip federal funding for National Public Radio. (Yes, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting is another Great Society program.)
Many Great Society programs are now so popular it is hard to imagine the country as we know it without them. Others — including some of its more grandiose urban renewal efforts — are generally regarded as failures. Poverty remains with us, with the two parties in deep disagreement over whether government has alleviated it or made it harder to escape.
When Johnson spoke that day in Michigan, before a crowd of 70,000, the country was enjoying unprecedented affluence.
So he beckoned Americans to consider what they could do with their riches, to imagine ahead — to today — a time that many who heard his words have lived to see.
“The challenge of the next half-century is whether we have the wisdom to use that wealth to enrich and elevate our national life and to advance the quality of our American civilization,” the president said. “Your imagination and your initiative and your indignation will determine whether we build a society where progress is the servant of our needs or a society where old values and new visions are buried under unbridled growth. For in your time, we have the opportunity to move not only toward the rich society and the powerful society but upward to the Great Society.”
The import of that pronouncement was lost on the graduates of the Michigan Class of 1964. Their college years had been framed by the thrill of John F. Kennedy’s election when they were freshman and the heartbreak of his death when they were seniors. They graduated six months to the day after his assassination; their speaker was a stand-in for the president they had originally invited.
Undergraduate student-body president Roger Lowenstein sat onstage behind Johnson. When he saw the words “GREAT SOCIETY” roll by on the teleprompter — in his recollection, the phrase was underlined and written in big letters — Lowenstein snickered with Michigan Daily newspaper editor Ron Wilton, who was next to him.
“It did sound corny, and it wasn’t catchy,” said Lowenstein, who went on to become an attorney, then write for the hit TV show “L.A. Law,” and now runs a charter school in Los Angeles.
“We were just typical 21-year-old wise guys,” he said, “with complete ignorance that history was happening in front of us.”
Goodwin still has his first draft of the Great Society speech. For decades, it was boxed away in the Concord, Mass., home he shares with his wife, the historian and author Doris Kearns Goodwin.
Settled in a comfortable chair in his study, Dick Goodwin pulled eight typewritten pages from a folder. They show a work in progress: notes penciled in the margins, phrases underlined for emphasis, entire paragraphs scratched out.
“He knew his ambitions,” Goodwin said of Johnson. “When I first drafted that speech, somebody else on the staff took it upon himself to redo it so it became just another anti-poverty speech. In fact, it was rewritten. I went in to see Johnson. This was intended to be much more than anti-poverty. It was a grand master plan. Johnson had it changed back to what it had been.”
The transformation
LBJ’s brand of government activism was inspired by his idol, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the New Deal of his Depression-era youth. (At 26, he had run FDR’s National Youth Administration work and training program in Texas.)
But the reach of Johnson’s Great Society was broader, its premise even more idealistic.
“Roosevelt did not set out to start a revolution in this country. He was trying to put out the fire” of an economic catastrophe, said political scientist Norman J. Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “Coming at a time of prosperity, Johnson really was looking for a way to transform America.”
LBJ prodded the 89th Congress , which was seated from January 1965 to January 1967, to churn out nearly 200 major bills. It is regarded by many as the most productive legislative body in American history — and the starkest contrast imaginable to the Capitol Hill paralysis of today.
In the space of a few years came an avalanche of new laws, many of which were part of LBJ’sWar on Poverty: Civil rights protections. Medicare and Medicaid. Food stamps. Urban renewal. The first broad federal investment in elementary and high school education. Head Start and college aid. An end to what was essentially a whites-only immigration policy. Landmark consumer safety and environmental regulations. Funding that gave voice to community action groups.

Before the 1965 passage of the Voting Rights Act, which sought to bring blacks to the polls, there were believed to be about 300 African American elected officials in this country. By 1970, there were 1,469. As of 2011, there were more than 10,500, according to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
One of them sits in the Oval Office.
Critics said some of the Great Society programs perpetuated the problems they aimed to solve, stirred social discontent and worked mostly to the benefit of the massive, intractable bureaucracies they created.
Enormous sums were spent on ideas that had never been tested outside of social-science theory, and some proved unworkable in the real world.
The Model Cities program, for instance, was shut down in 1974. Dick Lee, the slum-clearing mayor New Haven, Conn., who had overseen one of the most ambitious of the federally financed initiatives, once said, “If New Haven is a model city, God help America’s cities.”
The Office of Economic Opportunity, which ran the War on Poverty, was abolished in 1981.
“We were coming up with programs so fast, even Johnson could barely remember what he proposed,” Goodwin said.
Disillusionment gained force as the Vietnam War sapped Johnson of his political capital and his moral authority, and squeezed his budget.
In a 1978 book, Henry Aaron of the Brookings Institution wrote that the speed and intensity with which the country shifted gears “is unique in American political history.”
Johnson was acutely aware of that. “He was conscious of how limited time there was to get things done,” Califano said, “and how he was spending capital all the time.”
LBJ was elected in 1964 with what was then the biggest landslide in U.S. history. Just two years later in the midterm contests, his party lost three seats in the Senate, 47 in the House and eight governorships. Republicans would win five of the next six presidential elections.
Among those presidents was Ronald Reagan, who memorably said that the United States had waged a war on poverty and poverty won.
Reagan wrote in his diary on Jan. 28, 1982: “The press is dying to paint me as now trying to undo the New Deal. I remind them I voted for F.D.R. 4 times. I’m trying to undo the ‘Great Society.’ It was L.B.J.’s war on poverty that led to our present mess.”
The irony, of course, is that while Reagan and other presidents tried to eradicate Great Society programs, nearly all survived in some form, and spending on them continued to rise. The federal government has grown even larger — more than five times as big as it was in 1960, in real dollars — while public faith in it stands near all-time lows.
“That’s the paradox of the Great Society,” said Peter Berkowitz, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s conservative Hoover Institution. “It has never been more entrenched.”
The right time
The debate over the proper size and role of the federal government is a distinctly American one. In no other country has that question been argued for so long and with such intensity, going all the way back to Alexander Hamilton (who wanted a powerful central authority) and Thomas Jefferson (who feared one).
But there have also been eras when the country has opened its arms to a more expansive, muscular Washington. Sometimes, it has been because of a thirst for reform, as happened during the progressive movement of the early 20th century. At others, because the problems are so dire, as was the case with the New Deal in the 1930s.
LBJ recognized that, in the early 1960s, another set of atmospheric forces was building a storm system for government activism.
The economy was booming, ginned up by a big tax cut. America was mourning a slain president who had ignited its idealism. The civil rights movement had awakened its conscience. The nation was led by a president of unmatched legislative skills. And confidence in Washington was as high as pollsters have ever seen it.
Back then, when Americans were asked how often they trusted the federal government to do what is right, nearly 80 percent said just about always or most of the time, according to data compiled by the Pew Research Center.
That confidence would begin to erode dramatically in the mid-1960s as Vietnam and social disruption surrounding the Great Society shook Americans’ faith in the government that had brought them through the Depression and World War II.
By the end of 1966, their favorable view of Washington had declined sharply, to 65 percent — and it had a lot farther to go. It stood at 19 percent after last year’s government shutdown.
Yale Law School emeritus professor Peter Schuck, who was an official at the Department of Health, Education and Welfare during the Jimmy Carter administration, argues that the extension of the government’s reach and ambitions has deepened public cynicism.
“In short, the public views the federal government as a chronically clumsy, ineffectual, bloated giant that cannot be counted upon to do the right thing, much less do it well,” Schuck wrote in his new book, “Why Government Fails So Often.” “It does not seem to matter much to them whether the government that fails them is liberal or conservative, or how earnestly our leaders promise to remedy these failures.”
The Great Society promised too much. Sargent Shriver, whom LBJ put in charge of the War on Poverty, said that “ending poverty in this land” was actually achievable by 1976.
Decades later, Shriver reflected on why such a righteous undertaking should have become so reviled. One reason was the explosion of disorder, even riots, that followed.
“We weren’t quite prepared for the bitterness and the antagonism and the violence — in some cases, the emotional outbursts — that accompanied an effort to alleviate poverty,” Shriver told Michael Gillette, director of the LBJ Presidential Library’s oral-history program.
“There were an awful lot of people, both white and black, who had generations of pent-up feelings,” Shriver said. “. . . The placid life of most middle-class Americans was stunned, shocked, by all this social explosion, and then a lot of fear came into the hearts and minds of a lot of middle-class people — not only fear, but then real hostility.”
“There were an awful lot of people, both white and black, who had generations of pent-up feelings. . . . The placid life of most middle-class Americans was stunned, shocked, by all this social explosion, and then a lot of fear came into the hearts and minds of a lot of middle-class people — not only fear, but then real hostility.”
Liberals and conservatives disagree on why the War on Poverty fell short — whether it was abandoned or was destined to fail from the start.
“Government has crowded out civil society in many ways, inadvertently,” said House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). “. . . The federal government has a very important role to play here. I’m not suggesting they don’t. But it needs to be a supporting role, not a commanding role, not a displacing role.”
In the past few years, the plight of those on the bottom has gotten new attention as the country has struggled to reach escape velocity from its latest recession. The disparity between the rich and the poor has grown.
Ryan, who was on the 2012 GOP presidential ticket as Mitt Romney’s running mate, said his committee did a yearlong study of federal anti-poverty initiatives and discovered that Washington is spending $800 billion on nearly 100 programs, with no accountability for results.
In March, Ryan’s committee issued a reportnoting that the official poverty rate in 2012 was 15 percent, just a couple of points lower than where it stood in 1965.
But the president’s Council of Economic Advisers uses a broader measure — including tax credits and benefits such as food assistance — that estimates that poverty has dropped by more than a third, from more than 25 percent of the population in the mid-1960s to 16 percent in 2012.
So who is right?
“Economists always argue over the ‘counterfactual’ outcome,” said Austin Nichols, senior research associate at the Urban Institute’s Income and Benefits Policy Center. “You don’t know what things would have looked like if the programs hadn’t existed, and how many external factors there are, like economic growth.”
“It’s even harder with the Great Society programs, since a lot of them were constantly being modified,” he added.
For instance, Nichols noted in a recent blog post, federal spending on food stamps “mushroomed in size in the 2000s as it was called on to replace shrinking cash welfare programs.”
For some, the Great Society clearly made life better. In 1964, despite Social Security, more than one out of three Americans over 65 were living below the poverty line, in no small part because of their medical bills. (Forty-four percent had no coverage.) Today, with Medicare available, fewer than one out of seven do.
“These endeavors didn’t just make us a better country,” President Obama said earlier this year. “They reaffirmed that we are a great country.”

The Great Society did not just seek to redistribute wealth.
Johnson also set out to shift power in America — from states to Washington, from the legislative branch to the executive, from corporations to federal regulators, from big-city political machines to community groups.
That latter concept of “community action” — funding residents of poor communities so they could organize and mobilize — was one of the Great Society’s most controversial ideas. The concept was to put the poor in a position to help themselves, but it frequently played out in tense and even violent confrontations with the existing local power structure.
It also created a new generation of up-and-coming leaders, rising from the ranks of those who had previously been disenfranchised.
“My mother was clearly the person Lyndon Johnson had in mind with civic action, and she took full advantage of that,” said Ron Kirk, the former mayor of Dallas who served as U.S. trade representative in the Obama administration.
Willie Mae Kirk, who died in September, became a renowned community organizer whose victories included stopping the city of Austin from shutting down its only library branch in a black neighborhood. (One there now is named for her.)
“Part of President Johnson’s absolute genius was putting in place a mechanism that said: ‘You know what? You’re not going to have to be dependent on these, in many cases, biased political bodies,’ ” her son said. “They wouldn’t pay you lip service, give you an audience, much less put power in the hands of the people.”
For others, the Great Society opened up horizons, as well as opportunities.
When Rodney Ellis was 17, a Great Society program gave him a summer job in a hospital.
“It let me know I could do something other than what my dad did,” Ellis said. “My dad was a yard man.”
He became a slide-rule-team star as part of the Houston’s Inner-City Leadership Development Program — part of Model Cities. At 29, he was elected to the Houston City Council, taking a seat that was created because of the Voting Rights Act. Ellis is now a Texas state senator.
“All of the things that we aspire for in our country really ended up being implemented to some extent in the Great Society,” Ellis said.
Yet in his final years, Johnson mourned what was becoming of his domestic legacy.
“I figured when my legislative program passed the Congress that the Great Society had a real chance to grow into a beautiful woman,” Johnson told biographer Doris Kearns in 1971. “I figured she’d be so big and beautiful that the American people couldn’t help but fall in love with her, and once they did, they’d want to keep her around forever, making her a permanent part of American life, more permanent even than the New Deal.”
“It’s a terrible thing for me to sit by and watch someone else starve my Great Society to death,” Johnson said. “Soon she’ll be so ugly that the American people will refuse to look at her; they’ll stick her in a closet to hide her away and there she’ll die.”
The legacy
With 50 years’ perspective, there are things that liberals and conservatives agree the Great Society got right, including some that were politically costly in their day.
After signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Johnson gloomily observed to Moyers, “I think we just delivered the South to the Republican Party for a long time to come.”
Few now, however, would dispute that it was a good thing to remove barriers to racial equality — or that government dictate was the only way to do it.
“The anti-discrimination laws that were passed in the 1960s have probably done more to reduce economic inequality than have government programs,” said Diana Furchtgott-Roth, who was the Labor Department’s chief economist during the George W. Bush administration and who is now a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.
In addition to tackling the oldest problems, the Great Society took the federal government into realms where it had never gone before.
Chief among them was education. Until the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, Washington had never provided comprehensive funding for education below the college level. Its aid to college students was largely limited to helping veterans through the GI Bill.
Where the federal government spent less than $150 per elementary and high school student in 1960, in inflation-adjusted dollars, the figure by 2011 had reached about $1,600. In 2008, more than 64 percent of undergraduates on college campuses were receiving federal financial assistance of some kind.
The federal role “has remained controversial to this day,” said Margaret Spellings, education secretary under Bush, whose No Child Left Behind initiative attempted to hold schools more accountable for student achievement.
In the Great Society, “what succeeded is resourcing around poor, minority and disadvantaged students, an acknowledgment that there was a role for the federal government to level the playing field,” Spellings said. “. . . What I think has not worked is thinking that that was enough, that just that input would do the job. That’s why things like accountability and No Child Left Behind — fast-forward 40 years — were important, to deliver on the promise.”
Yet the political battle over the Common Core — a set of achievement standards developed by governors and encouraged by the Obama administration — is the latest example of the tension that arises when the federal government puts its finger on the scale in education. Criticism of the Common Core has come from an diverse chorus that includes tea party activists and teachers unions.
Some of the Great Society’s biggest accomplishments are rarely acknowledged today. For instance, the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 scrapped a 1920s-era quota system that had effectively shut out most of the world, except for blond, blue-eyed Western Europe.
The 1965 law inviting in Africans, Latin Americans and Asians “was in some ways the most important determinant of our ethnic composition,” said Schuck, who taught immigration law and policy at Yale Law School.
Other Great Society initiatives are being whittled away. In 2013, the Supreme Court struck down a key part of the Voting Rights Act, saying that some of its restrictions are outdated, in light of the racial progress that has been made.
And last month, the court upheld Michigan’s constitutional amendment banning affirmative action in college admissions — a blow to another Great Society program that some believe has outlived its usefulness. (Johnson himself thought of affirmative action as a limited, temporary measure, necessary for only a generation or so, Califano said.) Since the ban passed in 2006, black enrollment at the University of Michigan has dropped by a third.
For Gwendolyn Calvert Baker, there was a poignancy in that court decision.
She had been sitting near the front of her 1964 University of Michigan graduating class when Johnson delivered his Great Society speech.
Baker would have been easy to spot in that sea of caps and gowns. She was older than most of the students, a mom who had returned to college on a Rotary Club scholarship. And she was one of only about 200 African Americans on Michigan’s campus of nearly 28,000 students.
Baker got her PhD in 1972, joined the Michigan faculty as an education professor, and went on to run the University of Michigan affirmative-action program that in more recent years came under court challenge.
“The content of that speech, I really can’t say I remember a lot of it,” said Baker, who is now retired and living in Florida. “But it had meaning. I was feeling good that he was at least thinking in some of the ways I had been thinking.”
A half-century later, Baker said, she is pretty sure she knows what LBJ would think of how it all turned out.
“He would say we’ve come a long way, but we’ve still got a long way to go.”

Alice Crites contributed to this report.


Argentina: aprofundando a decadencia historica - Editorial Estadao

Pobres argentinos

17 de maio de 2014 | 2h 03
Editorial O Estado de S.Paulo
O governo de Cristina Kirchner bem que tenta esconder a crescente depauperação da Argentina, causada por suas políticas irresponsáveis, mas a realidade insiste em se impor. O problema é que a maquiagem dos números constrangedores, hábito recorrente na Casa Rosada kirchnerista, já não convence mais nem mesmo alguns governistas.
O mais recente informe de um centro de pesquisas da Central de Trabalhadores da Argentina (CTA), que é alinhada a Cristina, indica que o número de pobres no país chegou a 18,2% da população no último trimestre do ano passado. Esse porcentual é quatro vezes superior ao índice oficial, que é de apenas 4,7%, verificado no primeiro semestre de 2013 - equivalente ao das principais economias da Europa.
Cumprindo o script governista, a CTA até tenta demonstrar em seu relatório que a situação no país é muito melhor hoje do que foi no período anterior ao dos Kirchners. Diz, por exemplo, que "a evolução da taxa de pobreza mostra uma forte e sistemática tendência decrescente nos últimos dez anos", caindo de 49,7% em 2003 para 17,8% em 2013. No entanto, a pobreza na Argentina já foi de 16,1% em maio de 1994, depois de atingir 47% em 1989 graças à hiperinflação. Logo, há hoje na Argentina um porcentual maior de pobres do que há 20 anos, quando se implantaram políticas de estabilização da economia, reduzindo o chamado imposto inflacionário - aquele que é pago basicamente pelos que têm menor renda.
Com a atual disparada da inflação - cuja medição oficial, também suspeita, aponta para 11% no primeiro trimestre -, as projeções indicam uma reversão da queda da pobreza no país. "Provavelmente a aceleração dos preços após a desvalorização do peso em janeiro de 2014 provoque um incremento das taxas de pobreza e de indigência", admite a CTA. No entanto, a alta já era uma tendência no ano passado, quando o porcentual de pobres, segundo os critérios da central, subiu de 17,4% no primeiro trimestre para 18,2% no quarto trimestre.
A CTA recomenda, diante desse quadro, que o governo compense a alta inflacionária com um reajuste dos benefícios sociais, semelhantes ao Bolsa Família. Segundo a central, um desses benefícios, pagos a desempregados, subempregados ou que ganham menos de um salário mínimo, sofreu brutal perda de poder de compra em razão da inflação do primeiro trimestre deste ano, e hoje vale 9,3% menos do que ao ser criado, em 2009.
Do mesmo modo, a inflação fez com que o poder de compra do salário mínimo em dezembro de 2013 ficasse 4,7% menor do que o verificado no mesmo período de 2012 - apesar de dois significativos aumentos concedidos no ano passado, de 7,7% em fevereiro e de 14,8% em agosto.
Em lugar de admitir o problema, o governo Cristina reagiu como de hábito - acusando a "oposição" de distorcer os números sobre a pobreza, embora a CTA não seja de oposição. Os índices da CTA são até generosos, perto dos aferidos por outros institutos. Uma conceituada pesquisa da Universidade Católica Argentina diz que a pobreza na Argentina é de 27,5%, enquanto a Confederação Geral do Trabalho (CGT), rompida com Cristina, calcula esse índice em 30,9%.
Seja como for, parece claro, a esta altura, que são simplesmente falsos os números oferecidos pelo governo a partir dos cálculos do Instituto Nacional de Estatísticas e Censos (Indec) - que está sob intervenção do governo desde 2007, quando o então presidente, Néstor Kirchner, resolveu adaptar os indicadores à sua narrativa heroica. O último dado do Indec sobre a pobreza é do primeiro semestre de 2013 - por ordem do ministro da Economia, Axel Kicillof, a divulgação dos números do segundo semestre foi suspensa, talvez porque nem torturados os números digam o que o governo deseja.
É assim, escondendo dados para fingir que tudo vai bem, que a Argentina cava mais fundo ainda o buraco em que se encontra desde que acreditou no conto populista do kirchnerismo - em que os pobres somem num passe de mágica.

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