Xi e seus problemas com os mais altos generais: caso de simples corrupção ou oposição a uma conquista militar de Taiwan, como Xi Jinping pretenderia fazer até 2027?
Talvez o general apenas não queria sacrificar seus soldados, sabendo que no médio ou longo prazo Formosa voltaria ao Império do Meio. Xi parece querer uma “solução” mais rápida, antes do final do seu terceiro mandato.
Copio de Bill Bishop em Sinocism
26/01/2025:
“We still have no more concrete information than we had Saturday about the Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli case. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the official internal briefing he was accused of leaking nuclear weapons secrets to the US. As I wrote Saturday, the official, internal story is not always the truth about what happened, so just because they may be telling other officials he leaked nuclear secrets does not mean he actually did, and as much as I would live to believe the US government is that good at getting intelligence, I am skeptical Zhang was leaking to the US. But it might make for a useful charge internally, as it shows him to be an even greater villain than if he were simply corrupt, as he was working for the main enemy.
There are lots of other rumors going around. I advise skepticism.
The best article on Zhang I have seen so far is by Drew Thompson, who writes about his interactions with Zhang in 2012, when he was Director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. In The demise of Zhang Youxia hits different he writes:
General Zhang Youxia spent a week in the United States in May 2012 as part of a delegation led by Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie, hosted by then Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. Zhang was Shenyang Military Region Commander at the time, one of over ten general officers on the delegation with Defense Minister Liang. In 2012, I was the Director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, responsible for planning and organizing the delegation’s visit to the United States. I accompanied them on the trip including meetings in the Pentagon and tours of military bases on the East and West coasts.
I got to know Zhang Youxia on that trip, and I liked him...
My hope – for the sake of stable US-China military-to-military relations and cross-Strait stability - was that Zhang Youxia would stay at the top of the CMC and remain Xi Jinping’s closest military advisor. I think he was the one active duty PLA officer who could give Xi the best, most objective advice about PLA military capabilities including the PLA’s shortcomings, and crucially the human cost of military conflict. I think he could assess US and Taiwan military capabilities objectively and explain to Xi Jinping what the military risks and costs of an operation to take Taiwan would be. A sycophant with no combat experience has to tell Xi what Xi wants to hear. Zhang’s intellect, experience and his relationship with Xi made honesty and objectivity possible, and that makes him an exception among PLA generals.
For a US deterrence strategy to be effective we need Xi Jinping to be surrounded by competent generals who will give him objective advice. The sole remaining general on the CMC is Zhang Shenmin [Bill: He means Shengmin], a career political commissar. Leaving aside the governance and operational risks of Xi being advised by and trying to command a million-man army through a one-man committee, I worry about the consequences of someone other than Zhang Youxia providing Xi Jinping with military advice.
Without Zhang Youxia on the CMC, the risk of miscalculation goes up...
Thompson also drops a bit of a bomb at the end, telling us that according to Minnie Chan, then a reporter for South China Morning Post who has disappeared since late 2023, both Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shengmin were being investigated:
In October 2023, South China Morning Post reporter Minnie Chan was visiting Beijing for the Xiangshan Forum when she disappeared. She was researching rumors that Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shenmin were being investigated at the time...
We would sometimes speak on the phone, and sometimes text. Soon after she disappeared, all but one of her texts to me were deleted. I don’t know if she deleted them or if it was whoever is holding her and took control of her phone.
A month before her disappearance we were discussing whether or not Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shenmin were being investigated. She was certain. In September 2023 when I asked, “Do you think Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shenmin are in trouble and being investigated?” She responded succinctly, “Yes”.
That one word text is the only one in the string that was not deleted.
If Chan was right, that makes the case even more interesting. ...”
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