Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil’s currency war: don’t call it victory yet
The Financial Times, May 15, 2012
Bravo Mantega, you did it! On Monday the Brazilian real weakened past R$2 to the dollar for the first time since July 2009.
After touching R$2.0022 per dollar during the trading session, the currency closed around R$1.99, extending its losses for the year to about 6.3 per cent.
Those declines may have had more to do with the central bank’s recent easing cycle and fears over Greece, but for Guido Mantega, who has waged a war against Brazil’s strong currency for over two years, it means victory.
And judging from the finance minister’s comments at an impromptu press conference on Monday, it seems he will be happy if the real weakens even further:
The weak real is beneficial for the Brazilian economy because it makes Brazilian products more competitive which means that Brazilian industry can better compete with imported products that become more expensive and can export more.
One journalist asked: “but I thought you were happy with 1.80 (to the dollar)?” and he replied:
The government never established a parameter for the dollar and it will not. The currency is not fixed and it will continue to move in accordance with the market.
A weaker real will always be good news for exporters, but as this study from local newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo goes to show, Brazil is still expensive even at R$2 to the dollar.
Clothing, electronics, trainers, and even books are up to 65 per cent cheaper in the US, it says.
Google Shopping tells a similar story. Take a simple microwave, for example – the cheapest option in Brazil costs R$179 ($90), compared to $39 in the US.
In other words, even if the real were R$4 to the dollar, you’d still be better off buying in the US.
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário