Economic growth in emerging countries is likely to fall - Anders Aslund

Enviado por meu amigo Mauricio David:

Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall - Anders Åslund 

(Por que o crescimento nas economias emergentes tende a cair)

O paper do Anders Aslund aponta as muitas razões pelas quais o crescimento das economias emergentes tende a cair no futuro próximo : muito do catch-up potencial já foi utilizado e os booms extraordinários do crédito e das commodities ficaram para trás, por exemplo. As economias emergentes são, por outro lado, frágeis financeiramente. A convergência econômica não chegou ao seu fim, mas provavelmente chegou a um hiato que pode se prolongar por muitos anos.

 PIIE / wp / Anders Åslund : Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall

Abstract

Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was untypically high. This paper highlights the many reasons why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower going forward. Much of the catch-up potential has already been used up. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. 

They have major governance problems, so they need to carry out major structural reforms to be able to proceed with a decent growth rate, but many policymakers are still in a state of hubris and not very inclined to opt for reforms.They are caught up in state and crony capitalism. Rather than providing free markets for all, the West might limit its endeavors to its own benefit. Economicconvergence has hardly come to an end, but it has probably reached a hiatus that is likely to last many years. The emerging economies need to improve their quality of governance and other economic policies substantially to truly catch up. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as in the 1980s.

Íntegra do working paper :

http://piie.com/publications/wp/wp13-10.pdf