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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;
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quarta-feira, 12 de fevereiro de 2020
Trade patterns in a globalised world: Brazil as a case of regressive specialisation - André Nassif, Marta R. Castilho
Globalisation is the extent and intensity with which a country’s production, trade and capital flows are integrated into the world economy. Our focus is on globalisation through international trade. We analyse the main theoretical predictions about the effects of global trade integration on trade patterns between countries of different levels of income and technology and compare this analysis to our investigation of Brazil’s trade integration between 1990 and 2016. Particularly, we investigate whether Brazil’s recent trajectory has been directed to a pattern of regressive specialisation. By regressive specialisation, we refer to that in which both production and export structures are strongly oriented to goods of low technological sophistication and low income elasticity of demand. The recent theoretical literature on technological gaps suggests that when a country enters a rapid pattern of regressive specialisation, a falling-behind trajectory is observed. Our main findings are as follows (i) the technological gap significantly widened for all groups of manufactured goods classified by factor content and technological sophistication; (ii) the income elasticity of demand for Brazilian imports is greater than that for Brazilian exports, implying a falling-behind trajectory of the economy in the past few decades and that growth has been constrained by long-term balance-of-payments equilibrium (Thirlwall’s law); and (iii) there has been a very marked trend of high concentration of Brazilian exports in primary goods, but imports composed of high technologically sophisticated manufactured goods, reinforcing the regressive specialisation of Brazil’s trade pattern in the last decades.