Liberdade economica no mundo: relatorios de think tanks...

O mundo hoje é um lugar muito mais livre do que no passado, mas mesmo algumas "democracias" são especialmente "socialistas" quando se fala de direitos de propriedade e ambiente para o sistema produtivo.
Aqui alguns relatórios que podem ajudar a medir o grau de liberdade no mundo.
Por eles se fica sabendo, por exemplo, que a China, que está longe, muito longe, de ser um Estado democrático, é um país mais "livre" do que o Brasil, pelo menos economicamente.

1. "Index of Economic Freedom World Rankings" da The Heritage Foundation:
http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking.aspx

2. "Economic Freedom of the World: 2010 Annual Report" do The Cato Institute:
http://www.cato.org/pubs/efw/

3. "Economic Freedom of the World: 2010 Annual Report" do Fraser Institute
http://www.freetheworld.com/release.html

Divirtam-se, mas não fiquem muito frustrados. O Brasil é assim mesmo...

Um projeto estrategico para 2022: combater a obesidade dos brasileiros

A Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos do presente governo acaba de divulgar um alentado estudo (neste link), com dezenas de "metas estratégicas" para o Brasil em 2022.
Entre eles deve figurar a importantíssima meta do "combate à fome", um dos projetos do governo desde 2003 (aliás contrariado desde o início pela divulgação da informação, pelo IBGE, de que no Brasil o número de obesos era maior do que o de "famélicos", o que deixou o presidente muito contrariado).
Eu ainda não conferi todas as metas, uma por uma, mas posso apostar que entre as metas não figura o combate ao problema que figura abaixo...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
(PS: não pretendia estragar a festa do ministro...)

Em 2022, brasileiro será obeso como norte-americano

Quase metade da população está acima do peso

 

Um estudo do Ministério da Saúde mostra que os problemas de sobrepeso e obesidade pioraram tanto no Brasil que em 2022, mantida a atual situação, os brasileiros serão tão obesos quanto os norte-americanos. Em 2006, 42,7% dos brasileiros estavam gordos; em 2009, eles já eram 46,6%. “Estamos sentados em uma bomba-relógio”, disse o ministro da Saúde, José Temporão, que vai entregar a Dilma Rousseff o Plano de Enfrentamento da Epidemia da Obesidade.  

Constatacao da semana: psicopatas organizados com camisas de futebol

Torcidas organizadas são tribos de trogloditas psicopatas, cometendo violencia gratuita ao abrigo de camisas de futebol. No desvario, chegam até a crime mais abjeto.


Pequena sugestão para lidar com essa anomalia:
Após quaisquer manifestações violentas desses bandos de ignaros estúpidos, o time em questão, independentemente de qualquer culpa formal, deveria ser declarado tecnicamente ausente das duas partidas seguintes. Isso deveria esfriar os ânimos dos trogloditas.

Reflexao da semana: sobre ser corrupto...

No Brasil, ninguém mais tem vergonha de ser corrupto, pelo menos nos meios políticos e chegados ao governo.
Isso era inevitável: quando se passa a mão na cabeça de quem rouba, todos os demais se sentem estimulados...

(Não precisa procurar o autor...)

Mao Tse-tung: o maior assassino da história da humanidade

Mao Tse-tung foi, de fato e de longe, o maior genocida em massa do século XX, conseguindo superar as estatísticas já por si horripilantes de Hitler e Stalin (estes dois figurariam em qualquer Guiness de mortes provocadas, isto é, de assassinos frios), mas eu não sabia que o Mao Tse-tung era informado precisamente sobre as mortes provocadas por seu Grande Salto para trás. Sabia-se que o programa tinha provocado mortes, mas não se sabia que o PCC fazia uma estatística precisa da extensão da hecatombe.

----------------------
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

John Lewis Gaddis on

the History of International Relations

Yale professor John Lewis Gaddis points to research showing that, contrary to widespread belief, Mao was regularly briefed on the famine he had caused, making him, if you go by body count, the biggest mass murderer of the 20th century.

 

Before we talk about your five book choices I wanted to find out a bit more about what made you so interested in studying the Cold War and international relations?
It was an opportunistic choice. I was in graduate school during the late 1960s, when the first American documents on the early Cold War were being declassified. A good dissertation, I thought, should have fresh sources, should be on something significant, and should have the potential to become a book that people might still find useful ten or 15 years into the future. Getting in on the ground floor of Cold War history seemed like a good bet – it was still going on at the time, and very much on everyone’s mind. Beyond that, I wasn’t thinking in any particularly sophisticated way.

Your five books are actually all written by your former students. What do you think your students have been able to teach you?
Part of the fun of being a teacher is that you always learn from teaching. Usually that comes from how you organise and present the materials yourself, but surprisingly often it originates with students – particularly at the graduate level but sometimes also at the undergraduate level in seminars and senior essays. I’m lucky in that there are always new materials for my students to work with in the field of recent international history, not least those that have opened up in the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China and elsewhere since the Cold War ended. It’s also important, though, that the students are of a new generation, and that in itself brings different perspectives from my own. The result is new angles of vision on some old issues, but also the identification of new ones that older scholars have rarely, if ever, written about.

That is very generous of you to be so honest. Many professors never accept the influence of their students on their work.
Thanks, but it’s really self-interest. Think how boring it would be to go through life repeating your old lectures.

Latin America’s Cold War by Hal Brands

So what did Hal Brands teach you about Latin America’s Cold War? He was taking a more international perspective with this one wasn’t he?
He was indeed. Hal finished his dissertation only last year, and yet the book that has come out of it is the most comprehensive overview of US-Latin American relations from the 1960s to the 1980s that anyone anywhere has yet produced. It’s amazing to have a recent PhD write a book of which professors in mid-career and beyond would have been proud. Sometimes your own graduate students can zoom way ahead of you.

What new ground was he covering to enable him to zoom ahead?
Most important are the sources Hal has used. Most books on US-Latin American relations have been written chiefly from US sources, or, if they have used Latin American sources, it’s often been the archives of only one country. Hal worked in the archives of ten Latin American countries, as well as those of the United States, Canada, Germany, and, through published or online collections, those of the Soviet Union. So we get a truly international view of the Cold War; one written, for the first time, as much from the perspective of the Latin Americans as from that of the United States.

And how have critics received it in Latin America; do they think he has been fair towards them?
It is too early to say because the book has just come out. My guess is that it will be controversial for a couple of reasons. First, because previous histories of the Cold War in this region have been based so heavily on US sources, they’ve tended to exaggerate, and to be extremely critical of, the role the US has played in that part of the world. Most of the bad things that happened there, they insist – the authoritarian regimes, the civil wars, the human rights abuses – happened because Washington caused them to happen.
Hal acknowledges that there’s plenty of evidence for this. But he also points out that to blame everything on the US is to deny ‘agency’ to the Latin Americans, a strange conclusion for histories that purport to be sensitive to their views. The US from time to time acted repressively in Latin America, but it did not invent repression there – it has a very long history. Nor was the concept of a Cold War anti-communist crusade, or the violence often associated with it, something always imposed from Washington. It had Latin American roots as well.
So Hal Brands has given us a much more balanced treatment of US-Latin American relations than we’ve had up to this point. Of course it will be controversial. But it will also, I think, be definitive.

The Sino-Soviet Split by Lorenz M Lüthi

Your next book, by Lorenz Lüthi, looks at The Sino-Soviet Split.
Lorenz, while a graduate student, learned both Russian and Chinese. There aren’t many professors, even, who’ve managed that. So when we were discussing dissertation topics, I suggested something ambitious: why not write a history of the Sino-Soviet conflict? There wasn’t one based on Russian and Chinese archives, and yet this was an event of great importance in the history of the Cold War.
So Lorenz looked into it, concluded that it was possible, and wound up spending a lot of time in Moscow and Beijing, as well as Eastern Europe (the Russians and the Chinese complained frequently to the fraternal comrades about each other), working on the project. His book is now the standard account of the Sino-Soviet conflict, and it reaches a couple of important conclusions. One is that ideology was not just window-dressing. Leaders in both capitals took it extremely seriously, and rather than being a source of cohesion, as Marxist-Leninist theory suggested it should have been, it caused deep divisions. The other is that Mao Zedong was chiefly responsible for this. The Soviets, under Khrushchev, tried repeatedly to smooth over the difficulties, but Mao consistently frustrated those efforts.
There’s one other thing about Lorenz’s book that’s important. We’ve long known that something like 30 million Chinese starved to death during Mao’s Great Leap Forward, his disastrous effort to industrialise China in 1958-61. We’d always assumed, though, that he didn’t know about this – that Mao’s underlings kept it from him. Lorenz shows conclusively that this was not the case: Mao was getting regular reports on the famine he was causing, and yet for a long time he did nothing about it. Which makes him, if you go by the body count, the greatest mass murderer of the 20th century.

So you see a gap in the market and match your students’ talents to it!
Only partially. We’re blessed with great students at Yale. They’re pretty perceptive themselves in seeing where the opportunities lie. All I’ve tried to do is to tell them that it’s OK to think big. Admittedly this goes against the way a lot of graduate training is done, both at Yale and elsewhere – there’s too much of an emphasis on micro-topics, that only microscopic numbers of people will want to read about. My pitch to the students is that if you’re going to spend four to six years getting a PhD in history, you might as well do a dissertation that can quickly become a book that will attract more than four to six readers – and that might get you a tenured professorship somewhere. Life is too short to do otherwise.

The Wilsonian Moment: Self-Determination and the International Origins of Anticolonial Nationalism by Erez Manela

Very sensible! Let’s move on to The Wilsonian Moment: Self-Determination and the International Origins of Anticolonial Nationalism by Erez Manela.
Erez is indeed a tenured professor in the Harvard History Department, a status not easily attained. He reached it remarkably quickly, on the basis of a good topic and unusual linguistic skills.

Which is a very useful skill to have because the theme with all of these books is the use of primary sources.
Right. Erez came to Yale with Chinese and Arabic, plus Hebrew (he grew up in Israel), and several European languages as well. His dissertation was interesting because it focused on the macro-implications of a micro-moment.
The ‘moment’, incorporated in the title of his book, was Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points speech of January of 1918, in which he called, among other things, for self-determination – the right of people to determine their own forms of government. He did so for both realistic and idealistic reasons. The realism had to do with trying to undermine the appeal of the Bolshevik Revolution, which had just taken place, as well as that of Germany and its allies, with whom the US was now at war. The idealism lay in the fact that Wilson believed in what he said – without giving much thought to how widely it should apply.
Although aimed at the Russians and the Germans, copies of the speech went all over the world. No historian had assessed the consequences of this, however, until Erez started working with Egyptian sources, from which he learned that the Egyptians – still under the informal control of the British – had been very much excited by what Wilson had said.
So I suggested to Erez, since he did have Chinese, that he see if there were parallel reactions in China. There were indeed, in the form of student protests against the assignment to the Japanese, by the World War I victors, of a sphere of influence in China. One of those students, as it happened, was the young Mao Zedong. That got us to thinking about other national liberation movements: had the Fourteen Points speech influenced British-controlled India, for example, or Japanese-controlled Korea?
The answer was yes, and fortunately the sources for both countries were in English – Gandhi, of course, spoke it fluently, and Syngman Rhee, the most influential Korean exile at the time, had been educated at Princeton. So Erez constructed a four-part comparative study – the reaction to Wilson in Egypt, China, India and Korea – thereby giving us a new view of a familiar topic: the book is really about the Wilsonian origins of what, years later, we call the ‘third world’. So, as with the work of Hal and Lorenz, I’ve had to rewrite my lectures.

Power and Protest: Global Revolution and the Rise of Détente by Jeremi Suri

Your next choice is the controversial Power and Protest: Global Revolution and the Rise of Détente by Jeremi Suri, which has led to some heated debate.
Yes, but in a good way. This dissertation got started when Jeremi and I began talking one day about the absence of good histories of the détente era.

And for those who may not have come across this term, what does détente mean?
It’s the period of simultaneous improvement in Soviet-American and Sino-American relations during the late 1960s and early 1970s. So it’s associated with Nixon and Kissinger, but also Willy Brandt in Germany, Leonid Brezhnev in the USSR, and of course Mao in China because of Nixon’s extraordinary trip there in 1972.
Our first thought was that Jeremi should do a comparative history of these countries’ diplomacy at the time. But he, like many of our students, was interested in taking diplomatic history beyond the traditional diplomat, to look at cultural influences on the conduct of international relations. This meant focusing on what was happening inside each of the different countries.

So it is like the historiography of diplomacy?
It’s more like a reconsideration of what the history of diplomacy ought to include. For Jeremi, it was at first the protest movements that were such a prominent feature of the 1960s in the US: anti-nuclear, civil rights, women’s rights, and certainly anti-Vietnam War. I said fine, but what was happening at the time in Europe? In the Soviet Union? In China?
So this became an international history of protest movements, and Jeremi did find parallels. For example, KGB reports on Soviet youth at the time read very much like FBI reports on American student protesters. The connections became even more interesting, though, when Jeremi reminded me that leaders in each of the countries he was looking at felt under siege from domestic critics. In the US, Western Europe and even the Soviet Union, it was discontented youth. In China, Mao was being challenged by his own party and governmental bureaucracy – hence the Cultural Revolution he himself led against them.
Each of these leaders came to realise that they could defuse domestic protests by settling international differences. For the Americans, this meant getting out of Vietnam. For the West Europeans, more exchanges across the Iron Curtain. For the Russians, getting access to Western trade and technology in order to raise living standards. And for Mao, who was on the verge of war with the Soviet Union in 1969, it meant opening relations with the United States.

It sounds like there was this idea of not wanting to fight a war on two fronts, as it were.
Exactly. Their internal positions were precarious, so they tried to stabilise their external relations.
Jeremi’s work doesn’t discredit the traditional view that détente was meant to lower the risks of nuclear war. What it does show, though, is that this was not the only explanation, and that it’s only by going beyond traditional approaches to diplomatic history that we can see what those explanations are. His book has reshaped our understanding of détente. And I, again, have had to rewrite my lectures.

Nexus: Strategic Communications and American Security in World War I by Jonathan Reed Winkler

Your final book is Nexus: Strategic Communications and American Security in World War I by Jonathan Winkler.
Jonathan brought a different perspective to his dissertation: he was interested in how things work. Most historians focus on what people do, but people wouldn’t be able to do much – at least in the modern era – had things not worked. So how did they?
All of us knew, for example, that the telegraph had been invented in the 1840s and the first successful transatlantic cable had been laid in the 1860s. By the end of the 19th century, telegraphic cable communications extended throughout the world – the great European empires could hardly have been managed without them. How often, though, do histories of the period discuss this global network of cables, or the early systems of radio communications that were just beginning to supersede them?
That was the context for Jonathan’s dissertation, and his recently published book on American strategic communications during World War I. At the time the war broke out, in 1914, the British largely controlled the global cable network. Like the modern internet, it had been open to just about anyone in peacetime – wartime, though, was a different matter.
The British cut German cable communications, and intercepted the cable traffic of other countries. This significantly affected the US, which did not enter the war until 1917. So it confronted what we today might regard as a form of cyber warfare. Dealing with it became a major preoccupation, not just of the American military, but also of American banks and businesses attempting to conduct international activities.
We’ve long known that one German message the British intercepted – an offer to Mexico to return its ‘lost provinces’ of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California if it entered the war on the German side – played a major role in bringing about Wilson’s decision for war in April, 1917. What we haven’t known, though, is how the whole system of international cables worked during that war.
This was a major concern of American strategic planners at the time. It’s strange, therefore, that until Jonathan got to work on it, historians had almost completely neglected that issue. There’s often a mismatch between contemporary concerns and historical accounts. Jonathan’s achievement – a major one, I think – has been to reconnect them.

Interview by

 Daisy Banks

Books recommended:

[1] http://fivebooks.com/recommended/latin-america’s-cold-war-by-hal-brands
[2] http://fivebooks.com/recommended/sino-soviet-split-by-lorenz-m-lüthi
[3] http://fivebooks.com/recommended/wilsonian-moment-self-determination-and-international-origins-anticolonial-nationalism-b
[4] http://fivebooks.com/recommended/power-and-protest-global-revolution-and-rise-détente-by-jeremi-suri
[5] http://fivebooks.com/recommended/nexus-strategic-communications-and-american-security-world-war-i-by-jonathan-reed-winkle

Source URL: http://fivebooks.com/interviews/john-lewis-gaddis-on-history-international-relations

The discerning reader's essential read.
© 2010 FiveBooks, an intelligent general reader

Historia Geral da Africa - Unesco : disponivel online

Coleção História Geral da África em português
8 volumes da edição completa.
Brasília: UNESCO, Secad/MEC, UFSCar, 2010.

Resumo: Publicada em oito volumes, a coleção História Geral da África está agora também disponível em português. A edição completa da coleção já foi publicada em árabe, inglês e francês; e sua versão condensada está editada em inglês, francês e em várias outras línguas, incluindo hausa, peul e swahili. Um dos projetos editoriais mais importantes da UNESCO nos últimos trinta anos, a coleção História Geral da África é um grande marco no processo de reconhecimento do patrimônio cultural da África, pois ela permite compreender o desenvolvimento histórico dos povos africanos e sua relação com outras civilizações a partir de uma visão panorâmica, diacrônica e objetiva, obtida de dentro do continente. A coleção foi produzida por mais de 350 especialistas das mais variadas áreas do conhecimento, sob a direção de um Comitê Científico Internacional formado por 39 intelectuais, dos quais dois terços eram africanos.

Download gratuito (somente na versão em português):

Volume I: Metodologia e Pré-História da África (PDF, 8.8 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-123-5
Volume II: África Antiga (PDF, 11.5 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-124-2
Volume III: África do século VII ao XI (PDF, 9.6 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-125-9
Volume IV: África do século XII ao XVI (PDF, 9.3 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-126-6
Volume V: África do século XVI ao XVIII (PDF, 18.2 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-127-3
Volume VI: África do século XIX à década de 1880 (PDF, 10.3 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-128-0
Volume VII: África sob dominação colonial, 1880-1935 (9.6 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-129-7
Volume VIII: África desde 1935 (9.9 Mb)
ISBN: 978-85-7652-130-3

Informações Adicionais:
Coleção História Geral da África
Programa Brasil-África: Histórias Cruzadas

Bolivia: como afundar um pais, muito rapidamente...

No mundo todo, os governos se esforçam para elevar as idades de aposentadorias, aproximar as mulheres dos homens (que vivem sempre menos que suas companheiras) e diminuir os benefícios, em geral, como forma de se preparar para os tempos duros que virão pela frente, EM TODOS OS PAISES.
Menos na Bolívia: parece que eles descobriram a árvore da felicidade eterna, aquela de onde jorra não só leite e mel, mas dinheiro à vontade para pagar tudo isso.
Eu dou um prazo de três anos para a Bolívia entrar numa séria crise fiscal.
Depois o presidente da Bolívia poderá escrever um manual do tipo "Como enterrar alegremente um país sem sequer ter consciência disso". Deveria ser publicado numa categoria especial do Idiot's Guide of Public Administration...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida


Bolivia reduce la edad de jubilación a 58 años
Redacción - BBC Mundo
Sábado, 11 de diciembre de 2010

El gobierno aún no ha explicado cómo financiará el nuevo sistema.

El presidente de Bolivia, Evo Morales, promulgó una ley que reduce la edad de jubilación a 58 años -y todavía más para los denominados "grupos vulnerables"- invirtiendo la tendencia global a aumentar la vida laboral.

Hasta ahora la edad de jubilación era 65 años para los trabajadores bolivianos y 60 años para las trabajadoras.

A partir de ahora, sin embargo, ellas se podrán retirar a los 55 años, a condición de que sean madres de tres hijos.

Por su parte, los mineros que hayan trabajado bajo tierra -unos 70.000, según los últimos cálculos- podrán retirarse a los 51 años de edad.

La nueva ley también nacionaliza los fondos de pensiones que hasta ahora eran controlados por dos entidades financieras, el banco español BBVA y el grupo suizo Zúrich Financial.

Además extiende el beneficio de la jubilación al 60% de los bolivianos que se estima que trabajan en la economía sumergida, unos tres millones de personas.

"Elaborada por los ciudadanos"

Hasta ahora la edad de jubilación era 65 años para los trabajadores bolivianos y 60 años para las trabajadoras. Ellas se podrán retirar en adelante a los 55 años, a condición de que sean madres de tres hijos. Los mineros que hayan trabajado bajo tierra, unos 70.000, podrán retirarse a los 51 años.
Morales destacó en un acto en la sede de la Central Obrera Boliviana (COB), el mayor sindicato del país que el contenido de la norma fue elaborado por los trabajadores por primera vez en la historia del país:

"Es una prueba de que Bolivia vive una nueva era de fortalecimiento democrático en la que los ciudadanos son protagonistas de las decisiones", dijo el mandatario, cuyo gobierno pactó la ley con la COB.

"Estamos cumpliendo con el pueblo boliviano. Estamos creando un sistema de pensiones que incluye a todos", afirmó y se refirió a la época en que Bolivia "seguía los dictados de organismos internacionales para elaborar sus leyes", en alusión indirecta a la ley de pensiones anterior, elaborada durante la presidencia de Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (1993-1997).

Aquella ley privatizó los fondos de pensiones después de que el sistema estatal entrara en bancarrota.

Los críticos, en particular los líderes empresariales, dicen que Bolivia tendrá dificultades para financiar el sistema a largo plazo.

El gobierno aún no ha explicado al detalle cómo financiará el nuevo sistema, pero Morales ha insistido en ocasiones en que usará la riqueza del gas natural boliviano para ayudar a los desfavorecidos.

Esperanza de vida

Los mineros que hayan trabajado bajo tierra, unos 70.000, podrán retirarse a los 51 años.

Recientemente, otros países, sobre todo en Europa, retrasaron la edad de jubilación con el objetivo de hacer frente a unas sociedades más envejecidas como resultado del incremento de la expectativa de vida.

La Unión Europea (UE) se enfrenta a una "bomba demográfica", según el especialista en temas económicos de BBC Mundo, Marcelo Justo, que agrega que se ha agravado con la difícil situación que atraviesan algunos de ellos.

Francia elevó en noviembre la edad mínima para retirarse de 60 a 62 años, lo que generó numerosas protestas sociales. Reino Unido y España también tienen planes similares y la Comisión Europea propuso que los 27 países de la UE la retrasen hasta los 70 años.

Otras regiones han hecho modificaciones similares. Incluso Cuba la incrementó en 2009 de 60 a 65 años para los hombres y de 55 a 60 para las mujeres.

Pero el gobierno de La Paz aduce que el de Bolivia es un caso especial, ya que la mayoría de los bolivianos desempeñan duros trabajos manuales difíciles de sobrellevar a una edad avanzada.

La expectativa de vida en Bolivia es de 63 años para los hombres y 68 para las mujeres, según datos de la ONU, que sitúa la esperanza de vida global en 68 años para ambos sexos, una media que asciende a 73 años en Latinoamérica y a 80 años en Europa occidental.

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E por falar nisso: Europa propone jubilación a los 70
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Debate que se seguiu a este post (em 15.12.2010):

5 comentários:

Anônimo disse...

O governo do caudilho bolivariano Evo Morales lembra o vício em drogas. Primeiro a euforia, depois a depressão e por fim o tratamento de choque.

Segunda-feira, Dezembro 13, 2010 10:42:00 PM

Eduardo C. disse...

Acredito que a idade de aposentadoria deva refletir as necessidades econômicas e características demográficas de cada país. Sendo assim, o que parece estranho nessa história da Bolívia não é a redução da idade de aposentadoria, mas a desproporção entre esta e a expectativa de vida no país. O Brasil tem expectativa de vida (masculina) de 68,8 anos, enquanto a Bolívia, 63,4. Como podem ambos sustentarem a mesma idade de 65 anos para aposentadoria? O boliviano só tem direito a aposentar-se depois de morrer?

Terça-feira, Dezembro 14, 2010 12:19:00 PM

Paulo R. de Almeida disse...

Eduardo, Voce se referiu a duas coisas absolutamente contraditorias. As necessidades econômicas sempre vão estar em oposição às características demográficas, em qualquer país. Você pode contentar os bolivianos, ou até os brasileiros, mas estadá distante das realidades e da matemática. Para alcançar o que você quer, a taxa de crescimento da produtividade do trabalho humano, nesses países, teria de avançar a um ritmo fantástico. Acho sinceramente que não vai dar certo. Em todo caso, eu dei três anos para a Bolívia entrar em crise fiscal (não apenas por isso, claro, mas por todas as outras políticas do governo). Vamos fazer uma aposta, valendo dois livros: eu ganho se minha "profecia" se revelar correta. Topa? Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Terça-feira, Dezembro 14, 2010 9:57:00 PM

Eduardo C. disse...

Dr. Paulo, confesso não ter entendido em que sentido "necessidades econômicas sempre vão estar em oposição a características demográficas". Meu ponto era salientar que aquela idade de aposentadoria boliviana, a priori, não condizia com as reais necessidades do mercado de trabalho. De que adianta fixar a aposentadoria para 65 se não se vive até essa idade? Quer dizer, na média, não se perde força de trabalho por aposentadoria. Sobre a questão da dívida, acho que não haverá aposta. Também acredito na possibilidade de comprometimento fiscal de alguns países da Am. do Sul.

Quarta-feira, Dezembro 15, 2010 1:10:00 PM

Paulo R. de Almeida disse...

Eduardo,
Sei que voce raciocina com base em critérios de utilidade, ou seja, de maximização do bem-estar dos cidadãos.
Acontece que países com esperança de vida mais baixa são também, e necessariamente, os países de menor produtividade do trabalho humano, e portanto de menor renda, menores disponibilidades fiscais e menor capacidade orçamentária para sustentar uma larga população aposentada.
Ou seja, o que a Bolivia está fazendo é um crime contra os mais jovens, contra o país, contra o desenvolvimento nacional, contra a acumulação de riqueza e a melhoria dos padrões de vida.
O governo vai comprometer uma fração maior das receitas públicas com o pagamento de aposentados aos 55 e 58 (que de outra forma estariam trabalhando para sobreviver) e com isso vai inviabilizar a melhoria, justamente, dos setores de saúde, educação, saneamento, ou seja, tudo aquilo que poderia melhorar os padrões de vida e a prosperidade do país em médio e longo prazo.
O governo está assassinando o futuro.
Espero que agora você compreenda o meu raciocínio econômico...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida