Juizes malucos podem ser as pessoas mais perigosas que existem, porqueinimputaveis...

Pois bem, com base neste post abaixo transcrito de meu duplo colega (diplomata e blogueiro) e amigo, o embaixador portugues (ex no Brasil) Francisco Seixas da Costa, posso finalmente discordar daquele historiador italiano, Carlo Maria Cipolla (procurem no meu blog), que dizia que os idiotas sao os individuos mais perigosos que existem, ja' que existem, soltinhos por ai, juizes perfeitamente malucos, que causam prejuizos enormes 'a sociedade sem nunca serem cobrados por isso. Penso, por exemplo, naquele juiz maluco do Mato Grosso que, em 2003, decretou fichamento discriminatorio dos cidadaos americanos nos aeroportos brasileiros apenas por discordar de uma medida perfeitamente legal tomada pelo Congresso dos EUA.
Existem varios outros malucos soltos por ai, um deles em Brasilia, ou varios deles em Brasilia, que incita esse tipo de prepotencia.
Volto a dizer: deveria haver uma camara para controlar preventivamente juizes malucos, e depois puni-los pelos prejuizos que causaram ilegalmente...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Juizo
Francisco Seixas da Costa
Blog Duas ou Tres Coisas..., 4/01/2013

A decisão de um juíz brasileiro de arrestar um avião da TAP, como forma de obter os recursos necessários à satisfação de uma demanda de funcionários administrativos da estruturas diplomáticas portuguesas no Brasil, pode parecer uma espécie de anedota de Ano Novo. Não é. Trata-se da junção de várias realidades, onde se misturam a má-fé profissional de uns com o ridículo uso de poder de outros, somado ao isco mediático garantido. Nada que uma "liminar" de sentido contrário, recomendada pelo bom-senso, não acabe por resolver, mas com custos acrescidos e efeitos inapagáveis na opinião coletiva.

Não cabe aqui entrar nos detalhes de uma questão que, pelas funções que exerci no Brasil, julgo conhecer, embora a ela tenha sido completamente alheio. Apenas direi que entendo que o Estado português tem toda a razão. Mas porque não tenho paciência para comentar espertezas de alguns advogados, fico-me por aqui.

Choca-me, com frequência, a ligeireza das decisões de certos juízes, muitos deles seduzidos pelas luzes da ribalta mediática, com contornos a roçar a irresponsabilidade. E mais me choca que, revertida essa decisão por uma outra instância, nenhuma responsabilidade possa ser pedida a quem tomou a primeira - pelos vistos errada, caso contrário não prevaleceria a segunda. Alcandorados na sua "independência", os tais juízes a quem a instância superior tirou o tapete profissional, aí estão prontos para outras, ficando imunes à responsabilização, civil ou outra, pelos efeitos, patrimoniais ou humanos, que a sua decisão acarretou. Não quero particularizar, mas apenas direi que foi graças a uma atitude dessa natureza que o túnel do Marão acabou por não estar concluído, já há vários anos, com muitos milhões de euros de prejuízos e incontáveis custos para toda uma região.

A absurda sacralização que paira sobre estes operadores judiciais, armados em impolutos "orgãos de soberania", impede, por exemplo, que um qualquer cidadão possa chamar incompetente a um juíz incompetente, sem o risco de cair na imediata alçada ... de outro juíz! Às vezes, trata-se de uns miudecos acabados de sair das escolas de magistratura, sem experiência da vida e do foro, produtores de decisões absurdas e irresponsáveis, que ganham logo à sua volta uma espécie de temor reverencial, que os protege da denúncia de que "o rei vai nu".

A "importância" que certos juízes se atribuem a si próprios, foi sempre ridicularizada pelos seus pares mais responsáveis, pouco satisfeitos com o impacto negativo que esse abuso do conceito de "independência do poder judicial", pode provocar sobre a classe.

Um dia dos anos 90, essa grande figura que é o magistrado José Matos Fernandes, ao tempo secretário de Estado adjunto e da Justiça, olhou do gabinete do ministro para a rua e, de repente, chamou quem estava na sala: "Olhem! Olhem! Vai ali um órgão de soberania!" Toda a gente arrancou para as vidraças que davam sobre a varanda. Lá em baixo, no terreiro do Paço, havia gente a cruzar a praça. Que queria ele dizer com o "órgão de soberania"?, perguntou alguém? Com aquele sorriso magnífico com que lhe ouvi algumas das mais deliciosas histórias da vida judicial, ele esclareceu: "Então não viram? Ia ali um juiz..." E lá apontou uma dessas figuras para quem a sala de audiências era um mero cenário que intervalava as suas aparições perante as câmaras televisivas.


http://duas-ou-tres.blogspot.com/2013/01/juizo.html

FMI tropeca nos multiplicadores fiscais, admite economista chefe -Washington Post

An amazing mea culpa from the IMF’s chief economist on austerity
Posted by Howard Schneider
Wonkblog of the Washington Post on January 3, 2013 at 12:17 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/03/an-amazing-mea-culpa-from-the-imfs-chief-economist-on-austerity/?tid=pm_business_pop

Consider it a mea culpa submerged in a deep pool of calculus and regression analysis: The International Monetary Fund’s top economist today acknowledged that the fund blew its forecasts for Greece and other European economies because it did not fully understand how government austerity efforts would undermine economic growth.
The new and highly technical paper looks again at the issue of fiscal multipliers – the impact that a rise or fall in government spending or tax collection has on a country’s economic output.

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes that the fund misjudged the impact of austerity on European economies.

That it comes under the byline of fund economic counselor and research director Olivier Blanchard is significant. Fund research is always published with the caveat that it represents the views of the researcher, not the institution itself. But this paper comes from the top, and attempts to put to rest an issue that has been at the center of debate about how fast countries should move in their efforts to tame large debts and deficits.
If fiscal multipliers are small, countries can cut spending faster or raise more in taxes without much short-term damage. If they are large, then the process can become self-defeating, at least in the short run, with each dollar of government spending cuts, for example, costing the economy more than a dollar in lost output and thus actually increasing debt-to-GDP ratios.
That is what has been happening with a vengeance in Greece, where fund forecasters, as part of the country’s first bailout program in 2010, predicted that the nation could cut deeply into government spending and pretty quickly bounce back to economic growth and rising employment.
Two years later, the Greek economy is still shrinking and unemployment is at 25 percent.
Of course no two circumstances are alike. Shut out of international bond markets, Greece had little choice but to begin bringing its public finances into line or face a catastrophic default. Financing wasn’t available to sustain prior spending levels. For an economy that has been reeling for several years, however, a billion or two in extra government programs or investment could have kept a few small businesses open and kept a few more families employed and spending.

“Forecasters significantly underestimated the increase in unemployment and the decline in domestic demand associated with fiscal consolidation,” Blanchard and co-author Daniel Leigh, a fund economist, wrote in the paper.
That somewhat dry conclusion sums up what amounts to a tempest in econometric circles. The fund has been accused of intentionally underestimating the effects of austerity in Greece to make its programs palatable, at least on paper; fund officials have argued that it was its European partners, particularly Germany, who insisted on deeper, faster cuts. The evolving research on multipliers may have helped shift the tone of the debate in countries like Spain and Portugal, where a slower pace of deficit control has been advocated.
But the paper includes some subtle and potentially troubling insights into how the fund works. Blanchard – effectively the top dog when it comes to economic science at the fund – writes in the paper that he could not actually determine what multipliers economists at the country level were using in their forecasts. The number was implicit in their forecasting models – a background assumption rather than a variable that needed to be fine-tuned based on national circumstances or peculiarities.
Heading into a crisis that nearly tore the euro zone apart, in other words, neither Blanchard or any one of the fund’s vast army of technicians thought to reexamine whether important assumptions about the region would still hold true in times of crisis.
That, it turns out, was a big mistake. Multipliers vary over time: They may be low in a country where the economy is growing, interest rates are normal and the banking system is sound. As this research showed, they get larger if interest rates are low, output is falling and the banking system is creaky – conditions that make everyone, from households to investors, less likely to spend, and thus makes the role of government-generated demand that much more important.
Blanchard and Leigh deduced that IMF forecasters have been using a uniform multiplier of 0.5, when in fact the circumstances of the European economy made the multiplier as much as 1.5, meaning that a $1 government spending cut would cost $1.50 in lost output.
What are the implications for the future?
This paper may not be an official position of the IMF, but coming from the agency’s top economist, it is bound to change how the agency generates forecasts.
As for fiscal policy – an issue of interest as the U.S. debate turns towards austerity – Blanchard and Leigh said a better understanding of multipliers does not produce any definitive conclusions.
Many countries still need to cut their deficits – some faster, some slower, depending on a host of other factors.
“The results do not imply that fiscal consolidation is undesirable,” the two write. “Virtually all advanced economies face the challenge of fiscal adjustment in response to elevated government debt levels and future pressures on public finances from demographic change. The short-term effects of fiscal policy on economic activity are only one of the many factors that need to be considered in determining the appropriate pace of fiscal consolidation for any single country.”

TAGS
Austerity, Austerity and its discontents, IMF, Olivier Blanchard

palintropos
6:39 PM GMT-0200
This is an example of burying the message with a contradictory headline. Towards the end of the article it seems to say IMF cannot trust data from the country level. That is buck-passing, no? So, no mea culpa (my fault).
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ticked
5:46 PM GMT-0200
It's pretty simple stop wasting $1.5+ TRILLION a year on defense, 146 security forces, 16 intel agencies/depts and 700+ foreign military bases....approx. two times all rest of world combined military spending quit spending on destruction, killing and maiming.and use the money on fixing America
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RonScheurer
4:35 PM GMT-0200
Is it budget cuts or spending priorities that need a more serious look? If the US cut spending on all Middle Eastern civil wars, Arab and Israeli; and the quiet one in Pakistan, (and quite possibly in other places where transparency does not exist), there might be no need to raise the debt limit. Republicans would not like that because military activity does not involve positive economic, inventory accountability.

Destruction itself is seen as positive. Reducing educational options for student financial aid decreases the size of an intelligent populace while increasing cannon fodder. Reducing health benefits increases collateral body counts as does the pirating of those benefits by drug companies and insurers. Reducing Social Security to the under $30,000 a year folks guarantees an increase in their attrition rate into poverty.

"Happy Days Are Here Again" are a long way off unless both parties wake up, shed their internecine squabbling, and do for all of the voters, rich, poor, and between, what they are being paid to do - create equity for all, not equality, EQUITY. Equality is a myth.
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h3lt025
4:34 PM GMT-0200
What every single economist, in the entire world, needs to do TODAY is to publicly admit that they have no idea what they are doing and what they are doing is NOT A SCIENCE. They can predict NOTHING reliably with variables like "fear", "greed" and "desire". It is 100% crap, and it is being applied in ways that MASSIVELY affect people's lives.
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DavidGonzales
4:12 PM GMT-0200
An excellent, eye-opening article. May every Republican read this--read it and weep. The multipliers are connected to a country's condition and the IMF economists didn't even bother to investigate the conditions of the countries under consideration, as it says in the article--they just took it for granted that the number proposed as a multiplier was correct. Oh, brother.
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DavidGonzales
4:18 PM GMT-0200
I forgot to mention that the Republicans want too much austerity for the condition of the US right now--Republican austerity will cause needless suffering and damage the growth of the economy as well.
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jdgreger@yahoo.com
2:20 PM GMT-0200
Hey Eddie14 and all Krugman clowns, Greece is suffering because their economy was a government central planned structure and debt based economy. If you stop spending, the economy suffers cause you have no private sector producing. Greece along with Europe and eventually US are all based on flawed Keynesian "economics" (it's really a pyramid scheme) of spending and borrowing instead of saving and producing. See Japan the past 20 years, all they've done was build bridges and roads and they are still in deflation mode and now their debt to GDP is 240%...lol

You can't spend your way to prosperity because the gravy train eventually ends (e.g. greece), then eventually the United States. The interest rates are only low here because the FED is buying and keeping them artificially low. They can't do that forever and our debt masters will stop lending and or ask for higher rates and that's when the crap really hits the fan.

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JEHR
3:58 PM GMT-0200
jdgreger, do you even know what you are saying? When austerity is imposed, spending ends and so does saving. If money was spent on creating jobs (instead of propping up zombie banks), then the people would earn a salary, could spend on their needs and the economy would begin recovering. The secret is making jobs available. If the private sector can't (or won't) create jobs, then the government should. It can always afford to create jobs just as it can always afford to bail out banks to the tune of trillions of dollars.

All economies are "centrally planned" by someone!
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DavidGonzales
4:09 PM GMT-0200
Hey, jdgreger, did you read the article? Every country has its own multiplier connected to the conditions at the time under consideration--the cuts in Greece were too deep and caused a lot of needless suffering and underspending.

palintropos
1:52 PM GMT-0200
Following the logic of most commenters, the wealthiest countries should have been communist ones.
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OpenMindDC
1:45 PM GMT-0200
If only the righties read this stuff.
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ggant
1:36 PM GMT-0200
Can anyone get this the Idiots in the House? Do even read papers. Oh No facts, keep away , keep away. Facts are bad.
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scatchy
1:33 PM GMT-0200
This is an important admission, as it shows that the Republicans plans for austerity, which basically mirror what was put in place in Greece and the rest of Europe, would have undermined our economic recovery.
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Anacronismos trabalhistas - Editoral Estadao

Em toda sinceridade, sabem quando ocorrera' a reforma da legislacao trabalhista?
Not in your lifetime...
Alias, precisaria acabar tambem com a Justica do Trabalho, a maior criadora de conflito que existe neste pais....
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Anacronismos trabalhistas
Editorial O Estado de S.Paulo
Simplificar as relações trabalhistas, sem afetar direitos e rendimentos do empregado, é não só possível sem grandes dificuldades políticas, mas urgente, para tornar mais claras as garantias dos trabalhadores, facilitar a administração empresarial, reduzir a insegurança jurídica nessa área e, em particular, melhorar a eficiência das empresas e impulsionar a produtividade. Estas, em resumo, são as razões que levaram a Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) a elaborar um conjunto de 101 medidas de modernização e de racionalização da legislação trabalhista. O documento foi apresentado durante o 7.º Encontro Nacional da Indústria, realizado em Brasília.

"O trabalho formal no Brasil tem um alto grau de conflito e de insegurança jurídica, é excessivamente onerado e configura uma barreira ao crescimento da produtividade", segundo o presidente da CNI, Robson de Andrade.

A entidade reconhece que houve avanços na formalização do trabalho nos últimos anos. Entre 2000 e 2011, o número de empregos formais passou de 25 milhões para cerca de 44 milhões e o índice de desemprego baixou para menos de 6%. Observa, no entanto, que, entre os que trabalham no País há cerca de 52 milhões que não estão registrados como empregados nem são funcionários públicos. Parte desse contingente tem atividades formalizadas, como autônomos ou proprietários de empresas de diferentes portes, e conta com a proteção da legislação trabalhista e previdenciária. A maioria, porém, está na informalidade e não dispõe desse tipo de proteção.

O objetivo da CNI é assegurar a formalização desses trabalhadores por meio de um sistema trabalhista moderno, que substitua o atual, em que quase tudo é regulado e quase nada é negociado.

Para a indústria, a rigidez da legislação inibe a geração de empregos, impõe um excesso de obrigações ao empregador, pode gerar passivos trabalhistas e previdenciários e, desse modo, atua no sentido contrário ao aumento da competitividade e da eficiência da economia.

Além de excessiva, a regulação trabalhista, criada no início da década de 1940, tornou-se anacrônica e gera situações que hoje parecem absurdas - ou "irracionais", como prefere a CNI. Por causa da legislação trabalhista em vigor, o Brasil é o único país do mundo que, além da hora convencional de 60 minutos, tem também a de 52,5 minutos para o trabalho noturno, que é remunerado com adicional de 20%. Isso cria dificuldades para adequar as jornadas de trabalho e gera confusão no cálculo do salário.

Para simplificar, sem afetar a remuneração, basta utilizar a hora normal e ao salário-hora acrescentar 37,14% (resultado cumulativo do adicional de 20% mais 14,2% correspondente a 7,5 minutos de trabalho adicional por hora).

Outro absurdo é a manutenção, até hoje, do regime de sobreaviso, a que se submetiam empregados das ferrovias na década de 1930. Eles tinham de estar sempre preparados, em sua casa, para a eventualidade de serem convocados para o trabalho fora de sua jornada regular.

Num tempo em que não havia telefone nas casas, nem muitas formas de lazer, o sobreaviso impunha sacrifícios ao empregado e, por isso, ele era remunerado com o equivalente a um terço do salário-hora. Com as novas tecnologias de comunicação, o regime tornou-se um anacronismo, mas a Justiça do Trabalho o estendeu a todos os que podem ser convocados para o trabalho fora da jornada regular. Para estes casos, deveria aplicar-se o regime de sobrejornada, remunerada de acordo com o tempo trabalhado.

São apenas alguns exemplos de uma legislação ultrapassada e que requer urgente reforma. Ao propor medidas que não implicam perdas de renda para o trabalhador, a CNI espera abrir um debate produtivo com as lideranças sindicais, parlamentares e o governo, na esperança de que o diálogo transcorra sem enfrentamentos.

A discussão não pode ser mais protelada, se o objetivo for, como é necessário para o País, criar um ambiente mais favorável à formalização do emprego, sem prejudicar os trabalhadores e sem onerar ainda mais as empresas.

Ouro, essa reliquia barbara... e preciosa

AS REFINARIAS DE OURO NA SUÍÇA
BBC Londres, 27/12/2012

Quatro das maiores refinarias de ouro do mundo estão na Suíça, três delas no cantão sul de Ticino. Apesar de não haver minas de ouro suíças, cerca de dois terços do ouro do mundo é refinado no país. "Tem a ver com a história", explica Roberto Grassi, da consultoria financeira Fidinam. "Os grandes bancos suíços eram os proprietários das refinarias. Durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial, devido à grande quantidade de ouro que era armazenado na Suíça, os bancos decidiram criar as suas próprias refinarias para produzir lingotes". Atualmente os bancos já não são mais donos das refinarias, mas o refino e a produção de barras de ouro estão no auge.

Em 2011, último ano para o qual existem dados disponíveis, a Suíça importou mais de 2.600 toneladas de ouro bruto, com um valor de 103 bilhões de dólares. Do lado de fora, a refinaria de ouro Pamp se parece com qualquer outra fábrica moderna. Mesmo a entrada não é particularmente notável, além de algumas medidas de segurança maiores do que o normal. Mas por dentro, as coisas são muito diferentes. Em uma sala, o mineral fundido é despejado em moldes para fazer barras de ouro pesando 12,5 kg. O preço do ouro hoje está cerca de 1.700 dólares a onça. Como há 32 onças em um quilograma de ouro, apenas um lingote vale 680.000 dólares.

3. Alberto Candiani, diretor de produção de metais preciosos na refinaria, mostra com orgulho a mercadoria, que vai desde barras de ouro de 50g até a variação de 12,5 kg. Existem enormes pilhas desses lingotes, e outras mais saindo da linha de produção. Mas ao perguntar a Candiani exatamente quantas são produzidas em um dia, ele se torna mais contido. "Isso eu não posso dizer", diz sorrindo.

The unstavable beast: a armadilha dos servicos publicos - Kenneth Rogoff

The unstavable beast
Kenneth Rogoff
Project Syndicate, January 3, 2013

CAMBRIDGE – As the world watches the United States grapple with its fiscal future, the contours of the battle reflect larger social and philosophical divisions that are likely to play out in various guises around the world in the coming decades. There has been much discussion of how to cut government spending, but too little attention has been devoted to how to make government spending more effective. And yet, without more creative approaches to providing government services, their cost will continue to rise inexorably over time.

Any service-intensive industry faces the same challenges. Back in the 1960’s, the economists William Baumol and William Bowen wrote about the “cost disease” that plagues these industries. The example they famously used was that of a Mozart string quartet, which requires the same number of musicians and instruments in modern times as it did in the nineteenth century. Similarly, it takes about the same amount of time for a teacher to grade a paper as it did 100 years ago. Good plumbers cost a small fortune, because here, too, the technology has evolved very slowly.

Why does slow productivity growth translate into high costs? The problem is that service industries ultimately have to compete for workers in the same national labor pool as sectors with fast productivity growth, such as finance, manufacturing, and information technology. Even though the pools of workers may be somewhat segmented, there is enough overlap that it forces service-intensive industries to pay higher wages, at least in the long run.

The government, of course, is the consummate service-intensive sector. Government employees include teachers, policemen, trash collectors, and military personnel.

Modern schools look a lot more like those of 50 years ago than do modern manufacturing plants. And, while military innovation has been spectacular, it is still very labor-intensive. If people want the same level of government services relative to other things that they consume, government spending will take up a larger and larger share of national output over time.

Indeed, not only has government spending been rising as a share of income; so, too, has spending across many service sectors. Today, the service sector, including the government, accounts for more than 70% of national income in most advanced economies.

Agriculture, which in the 1800’s accounted for more than half of national income, has shrunk to just a few percent. Manufacturing employment, which accounted for perhaps a third of jobs or more before World War II, has shrunk dramatically. In the US, for example, the manufacturing sector employs less than 10% of all workers. So, even as economic conservatives demand spending cuts, there are strong forces pushing in the other direction.

Admittedly, the problem is worse in the government sector, where productivity growth is much slower even than in other service industries. Whereas this might reflect the particular mix of services that governments are asked to provide, that can hardly be the whole story.

Surely, part of the problem is that governments use employment not just to provide services, but also to make implicit transfers. Moreover, government agencies operate in many areas in which they face little competition – and thus little pressure to innovate.

Why not bring greater private-sector involvement, or at least competition, into government? Education, where the power of modern disruptive technologies has barely been felt, would be a good place to start. Sophisticated computer programs are becoming quite good at grading middle-school essays, if not quite up to the standards of top teachers.

Infrastructure is another obvious place to expand private-sector involvement. Once upon a time, for example, it was widely believed that drivers on privately operated roads would constantly be waiting to pay tolls. Modern transponders and automatic payment systems, however, have made that a non-issue.

But one should not presume that a shift to greater private-sector provision of services is a panacea. There would still be a need for regulation, especially where monopoly or near-monopoly is involved. And there would still be a need to decide how to balance efficiency and equity in the provision of services. Education is clearly an area in which any country has a strong national interest in providing a level playing field.

As US President in the 1980’s, the conservative icon Ronald Reagan described his approach to fiscal policy as “starve the beast”: cutting taxes will eventually force people to accept less government spending. In many ways, his approach was a great success. But government spending has continued to grow, because voters still want the services that government provides. Today, it is clear that reining in government also means finding ways to shape incentives so that innovation in government keeps pace with innovation in other service sectors.

Without more ideas about how to innovate in the provision of government services, battles such as one sees playing out in the US today can only become worse, as voters are increasingly asked to pay more for less. Politicians can and will promise to do a better job, but they cannot succeed unless we identify ways to boost government services’ efficiency and productivity.

EUA: abismo fiscal? Nao para os grandes lobbies (WSJ)

Crony Capitalism blowout
Editorial The Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2013

In praising Congress's huge new tax increase, President Obama said Tuesday that "millionaires and billionaires" will finally "pay their fair share." That is, unless you are a Nascar track owner, a wind-energy company or the owners of StarKist Tuna, among many others who managed to get their taxes reduced in Congress's New Year celebration.

There's plenty to lament about the capital and income tax hikes, but the bill's seedier underside is the $40 billion or so in tax payoffs to every crony capitalist and special pleader with a lobbyist worth his million-dollar salary. Congress and the White House want everyone to ignore this corporate-welfare blowout, so allow us to shine a light on the merriment.

Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus got the party started this summer when he said he would subject 75 special-interest tax breaks to a "tax reform" review. That was pretty funny. Nearly every attempt by Tom Coburn (R., Okla.) and others to pare back the list was defeated in a bipartisan rout.

The Senators even voted down, 14-10, an amendment to list the corporate interests that receive tax perks on a government website. This "tax extenders" bill passed Mr. Baucus's committee, 19-5 (see the table nearby), and then sat waiting until Harry Reid and the White House stuffed it wholesale into the "fiscal cliff" bill.

Thus Michigan Democrat Debbie Stabenow was able to retain an accelerated tax write-off for owners of Nascar tracks (cost: $78 million) to benefit the paupers who control the Michigan International Speedway. New Mexico's Jeff Bingaman saved a tax credit for companies operating in American Samoa ($62 million), including a StarKist factory.

Distillers are able to drink to a $222 million rum tax rebate. Perhaps this will help to finance more of those fabulous Bacardi TV ads with all those beautiful rich people. Businesses located on Indian reservations will receive $222 million in accelerated depreciation. And there are breaks for railroads, "New York Liberty Zone" bonds and so much more.

But a special award goes to Chris Dodd, the former Senator who now roams Gucci Gulch lobbying for Hollywood's movie studios. The Senate summary of his tax victory is worth quoting in full: "The bill extends for two years, through 2013, the provision that allows film and television producers to expense the first $15 million of production costs incurred in the United States ($20 million if the costs are incurred in economically depressed areas in the United States)."

You gotta love that "depressed areas" bit. The impoverished impresarios of Brentwood get an extra writeoff if they take their film crews into, say, deepest Flatbush. Is that because they have to pay extra to the caterers from Dean & DeLuca to make the trip? It sure can't be because they hire the jobless locals for the production crew. Those are union jobs, mate, and don't you forget it.

The Joint Tax Committee says this Hollywood special will cost the Treasury a mere $248 million over 10 years, but over fiscal years 2013 and 2014 the cost is really $430 million because it is supposed to expire at the end of this year. In reality Mr. Dodd will wrangle another extension next year, and the year after that, and . . . . Investing a couple million in Mr. Dodd in return for $430 million in tax breaks sure beats trying to make better movies.

Then there are the green-energy giveaways that are also quickly becoming entitlements. The wind production tax credit got another one-year reprieve, thanks to Mr. Obama and GOP Senators John Thune (South Dakota) and Chuck Grassley (Iowa). This freebie for the likes of the neediest at General Electric and Siemens —which benefit indirectly by making wind turbine gear—is now 20 years old. Cost to taxpayers: $12 billion.

Cellulosic biofuels—the great white whale of renewable energy—also had their tax credit continued, and the definition of what qualifies was expanded to include producers of "algae-based fuel" ($59 million.) Speaking of sludge, biodiesel and "renewable diesel" will continue receiving their $1 per gallon tax credit ($2.2 billion). The U.S. is experiencing a natural gas and oil drilling boom, but Congress still thinks algae and wind will power the future.

Meanwhile, consumers will get tax credits for buying plug-in motorcycles ($7 million), while the manufacturers of energy-efficient appliances ($650 million) and builders of energy-efficient homes ($154 million) also retain tax credits. Manufacturers like Whirlpool love these subsidies, and they are one reason that company paid no net taxes in recent years.

The great joke here is that Washington pretends to want to pass "comprehensive tax reform," even as each year it adds more tax giveaways that distort the tax code and keep tax rates higher than they have to be. Even as he praised the bill full of this stuff, Mr. Obama called Tuesday night for "further reforms to our tax code so that the wealthiest corporations and individuals can't take advantage of loopholes and deductions that aren't available to most Americans."

One of Mr. Obama's political gifts is that he can sound so plausible describing the opposite of his real intentions.

The costs of all this are far greater than the estimates conjured by the Joint Tax Committee. They include slower economic growth from misallocated capital, lower revenues for the Treasury and thus more pressure to raise rates on everyone, and greater public cynicism that government mainly serves the powerful.

Republicans who are looking for a new populist message have one waiting here, and they could start by repudiating the corporate welfare in this New Year disgrace.

A version of this article appeared January 2, 2013, on page A12 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Crony Capitalist Blowout.

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Lembram-se da autossuficiencia em petroleo? Pois e'...

Não só a política do petróleo, e dos combustíveis, está fundamentalmente errada, desde o início, mas o governo também conseguiu perturbar profundamente a própria matriz energética do Brasil, começando por estímulos artificiais -- e totalmente antieconômicos -- ao biocombustível de mamona (um erro crasso, sem qualquer cálculo econômico), com implicações inclusive para a política externa, ao flertar com o gasoduto chavista, ao permitir expropriação de ativos da Petrobras no exterior, ao se lançar numa mudança irracional, rentista, demagógica, irresponsável da legislação sobre extração, produção e distribuição de recursos fósseis, e um pouco em todas as outras áreas da energia, sem esquecer a produção e distribuição de eletricidade.
Enfim, um caos completo, uma incompetência que só se salvou justamente em função da importação de todos os combustíveis (petroleo, gas, etanol), o que terá o seu preço em termos de transações correntes.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

O elevado déficit que vem da importação de petróleo

02 de janeiro de 201

Editorial O Estado de S.Paulo

 

O déficit comercial provocado pelo aumento da importação de petróleo e derivados atingiu US$ 9,8 bilhões, até novembro, segundo a Secretaria de Comércio Exterior (Secex) do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, e foi estimado em US$ 11,8 bilhões, em 2012, pela consultoria Tendências. Além de ser o maior déficit em 17 anos, a presidente da Petrobrás, Maria das Graças Foster, admitiu que esse valor deverá crescer em 2013.
A autossuficiência em petróleo, proclamada pelo ex-presidente Lula em meados da década passada, só existiu em 2009, quando o déficit (diferença entre as importações e as exportações de petróleo e derivados) foi de apenas US$ 250 milhões, pouco mais de 2% do previsto para 2012.
O desequilíbrio crescente atual deve-se, em parte, à política de estímulo ao consumo, inclusive de veículos. "A demanda por combustível vai continuar crescendo e, enquanto não aumentar a capacidade de refino, será necessário comprar de fora", disse à Folha de S.Paulo um analista da Tendências, Walter de Vitto.
A presidente da Petrobrás, em entrevista a O Globo, notou que foram importados 114 mil barris por dia de gasolina em novembro e a quantidade prevista era de 178 mil barris/dia em dezembro.
Os números mostram as deficiências da política energética dos últimos anos. A manutenção de preços artificialmente baixos para gasolina e diesel desestimulou a produção de álcool e estimulou o aumento de importações. Em 2012, até outubro, o consumo de gasolina aumentou 11,8% e 7,0% o do diesel. O déficit na conta-petróleo agrava o da conta corrente do balanço de pagamentos.
Ao atrasar a correção dos preços da gasolina e do diesel, a Petrobrás fatura menos e passa a depender de mais recursos de terceiros para cumprir seus planos de investimento. Graça Foster admite uma defasagem de 6% dos preços da gasolina.
Em 2013, o déficit na conta-petróleo deverá atingir US$ 17,2 bilhões, prevê a Tendências. O valor cairá com o aumento da capacidade de refino, mas só em 2015 deverá começar a funcionar a Refinaria Abreu e Lima, em Pernambuco. No longo prazo, o Brasil poderá reduzir - ou até eliminar - o desequilíbrio da conta-petróleo, à medida que cresça a exploração dos campos do pré-sal. Mas a Petrobrás só prevê aumento da produção de óleo bruto em 2014.
Está em teste, portanto, a reforma da Lei do Petróleo, de 2010. O temor é de que tenha havido o erro estratégico de jogar toda a responsabilidade nos ombros da Petrobrás.