Brazil under Dilma - an economic view by John Welch

Um grande especialista em economia brasileira dá sua opinião, fundamentada, sobre o estado da arte no Brasil, em termos de reformas (que ele acertadamente diz que não avançaram nada).

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

“Brazil Under Dilma: Forward, Backward or Status Quo?”

by John H. Welch

Emerging Markets Strategist and Executive Director

CIBC World Markets

New York City

January 13, 2012

Introduction

With the end of President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva’s second term and the beginning of the term of President Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s chosen successor, many questions arise about Brazil’s past, present and future.  The first concerns Lula’s legacy. Certainly he did more than just maintain the macroeconomic policies from the previous administration of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, which, combined with earlier trade openings and privatizations, go far in explaining Brazil’s privileged performance during and after the recent financial crisis.  Perhaps Lula’s main legacy is having  combined and expanded existing means-based welfare support under the Bolsa Familia’s umbrella program. The most important reform Lula pushed through Congress was the social security reform of 2003.  But this reform was never implemented. Moreover, Lula’s second term was marked by policy drift and a lack of reform, in part due to the international financial crisis of 2008-2009. To read the full text, click here.

The Center for Hemispheric Policy is pleased to send you the fourth of a series of papers based on the work of the Center’s task force on “Brazil Under Rousseff.” The papers expand upon presentations that various authors made at one of the three sessions of the task force. The attached paper, entitled “Brazil Under Dilma: Forward, Backward or Status Quo?” was written by John H. Welch, emerging markets strategist and executive director at CIBC World Markets in New York. A more extensive biographical note appears at the end of Dr. Welch’s paper. This task force paper is available on the Center’s website: www.miami.edu/chp.